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长海股份(300196):盈利韧性强的玻纤一体化小龙头
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 06:37
Core Viewpoint - The company is a rare integrated player in the fiberglass industry, demonstrating strong profit resilience supported by a complete industrial chain, as evidenced by its impressive H1 2025 financial results [1] Investment Highlights - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million yuan in H1 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 42.30%, confirming the profit resilience brought by its integrated operations [2] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 395 million, 439 million, and 529 million yuan respectively, with EPS projected at 0.97, 1.07, and 1.29 yuan per share [2] - The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of 21.34 yuan per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 and a 1.8x PB valuation, reflecting a cautious approach [2] - The company primarily engages in the production and sales of fiberglass and related products, with H1 2025 revenue contributions of 76.78% from fiberglass and 21.78% from resin [2] - The significant increase in net profit, with a 52.52% year-on-year rise in net profit excluding non-recurring items, underscores the company's strong profit resilience during periods of low fiberglass market conditions [2] Production Capacity Expansion - The company had only 170,000 tons of production capacity across three lines in mid-2021, with a new 100,000-ton line ignited in September 2021 and plans for four additional 150,000-ton lines, the first of which was ignited in 2024 [3] - Total production capacity has expanded to 470,000 tons, with further growth expected as additional lines and upgrades are completed [3] - The company is poised to benefit significantly from increased capacity when the fiberglass market rebounds [3] Resin Business Performance - The resin business has maintained stable revenue exceeding 600 million yuan annually since 2020, with H1 2025 revenue reaching 320 million yuan [3] - The gross margin for the resin business has improved from around 15% in 2022 and 2023 to 21.48% in H1 2025, indicating a positive trend [3] - Although the resin segment does not contribute a large profit share, it remains a crucial part of the company's integrated strategy [3] Financial Stability - The company's asset-liability ratio has remained below 30% from 2016 to 2023, with a slight increase to around 35% anticipated in 2024 due to the implementation of a 600,000-ton capacity plan [3] - This level of debt is considered manageable for a company operating in a capital-intensive industry [3]