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高频因子跟踪:上周价量背离因子表现优异
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-10 14:00
- The report tracks the performance of high-frequency stock selection factors, including Price Range Factor, Price-Volume Divergence Factor, Regret Avoidance Factor, and Slope Convexity Factor. These factors are evaluated based on their excess returns and predictive capabilities[2][3][11] - **Price Range Factor**: This factor measures the activity of stock transactions in different price ranges during the day, reflecting investors' expectations for future stock trends. It includes sub-factors such as high-price range transaction volume (VH80TAW), high-price range transaction count (MIH80TAW), and low-price range average transaction volume (VPML10TAW). The factor shows a strong predictive effect and stable performance this year[3][12][14] - **Price-Volume Divergence Factor**: This factor evaluates the correlation between stock prices and trading volumes. A lower correlation indicates a higher likelihood of future price increases. Sub-factors include price-to-transaction count correlation (CorrPM) and price-to-volume correlation (CorrPV). The factor has shown relatively stable performance this year, despite a declining trend since 2020[3][20][22] - **Regret Avoidance Factor**: Based on behavioral finance, this factor examines the proportion and degree of stock price rebounds after being sold by investors. Sub-factors include sell-rebound proportion (LCVOLESW) and sell-rebound deviation (LCPESW). The factor demonstrates stable out-of-sample excess returns, indicating that regret avoidance sentiment significantly impacts stock price expectations[3][23][31] - **Slope Convexity Factor**: Derived from the elasticity of supply and demand, this factor uses order book data to calculate the slope and convexity of buy and sell orders. Sub-factors include low-level slope (Slope_abl) and high-level convexity (Slope_alh). The factor's performance has been relatively flat in recent years, with some fluctuations in recent weeks[3][32][35] - The report constructs two enhanced strategies: the "High-Frequency Gold" portfolio and the "High-Frequency & Fundamental Resonance" portfolio. The "High-Frequency Gold" portfolio combines the three high-frequency factors with equal weights, achieving an annualized excess return of 10.11% and an IR of 2.36. The "High-Frequency & Fundamental Resonance" portfolio integrates high-frequency factors with fundamental factors (e.g., consensus expectations, growth, and technical factors), achieving an annualized excess return of 14.21% and an IR of 3.39[3][39][44] - **Performance Metrics for High-Frequency Gold Portfolio**: Annualized return: 9.49%, Annualized volatility: 23.87%, Sharpe ratio: 0.40, Maximum drawdown: 47.77%, Annualized excess return: 10.11%, IR: 2.36, Maximum excess drawdown: 6.04%[40][43] - **Performance Metrics for High-Frequency & Fundamental Resonance Portfolio**: Annualized return: 13.66%, Annualized volatility: 23.49%, Sharpe ratio: 0.58, Maximum drawdown: 39.60%, Annualized excess return: 14.21%, IR: 3.39, Maximum excess drawdown: 4.52%[47][48]