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上证3500了,现在入量化选股晚吗?
雪球· 2025-07-18 08:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and current state of quantitative stock selection strategies in the private equity sector, emphasizing their performance and adaptability in various market conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Development - Quantitative stock selection began to gain traction around 2021, as traditional index-enhanced strategies struggled due to a sluggish market, leading many top private equity managers to explore new avenues [4]. - In 2022, the flexibility and anti-drawdown characteristics of quantitative stock selection became apparent, with top-performing products achieving positive returns despite market turbulence [4]. - By 2023, the strategy gained mainstream acceptance, with nearly 90% of quantitative stock selection products yielding positive returns, significantly outperforming major indices [5]. Group 2: Performance and Market Conditions - The first half of 2024 saw a resurgence in quantitative stock selection performance, with some managers reporting returns exceeding 50%, driven by high trading volumes and increased market volatility [6]. - The article highlights that a conducive environment for quantitative strategies includes high trading volumes and volatility, which have been prevalent since the 2023 market rally [8]. Group 3: Investment Timing Concerns - Investors express concerns about entering the market at high points, particularly as the index approaches 3500 points, a level historically associated with bull markets [9][11]. - The article suggests that the timing of entry is less critical for quantitative stock selection, as the strategy is not tied to specific indices and can adapt to various market conditions [13]. Group 4: Specific Fund Analysis - Two private equity funds are highlighted: - Fund A has achieved a 36% return this year and 117% over the past year, utilizing a multi-factor strategy with high turnover and leverage [14][15]. - Fund B has reported a 30% return this year and 83% over the past year, employing a high-frequency trading strategy with low correlation to other market participants [16][17].