Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dramatic decline in the financial performance of Keda Guodun (科大国盾) after its initial public offering (IPO), highlighting the disparity between pre-IPO expectations and post-IPO realities, leading to significant investor losses [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Keda Guodun experienced a staggering 923.91% increase on its first trading day, setting a record in the STAR Market [1] - The company reported its first annual loss in 2021, with a net loss amounting to several million yuan, which was initially attributed to pandemic impacts and increased R&D investments [1][2] - By 2023, the net loss expanded to several hundred million yuan, with a sharp decline in operating revenue, marking a significant contrast to pre-IPO performance [2][3] Market Expectations vs. Reality - Pre-IPO, Keda Guodun projected a booming market for quantum key distribution (QKD) technology, with expectations of a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% to 50%, and a domestic market size reaching hundreds of billions of yuan by 2025 [5][6] - Post-IPO, the actual market growth was significantly slower than anticipated, with over 90% of real-world applications concentrated in a few sectors such as government and military, rather than the broad market initially envisioned [6][7] Product Development and Market Response - The company launched several products aimed at consumer markets, including "Quantum Secret Talk" and "Quantum Security U-Shield," but faced challenges in market acceptance due to high costs and limited coverage [2][3] - Despite attempts to diversify its product offerings, Keda Guodun struggled to generate new revenue streams, revealing weaknesses in its marketization capabilities [3][4] Government Support and Dependency - Keda Guodun has relied heavily on government subsidies, particularly from local governments in Anhui province, which have provided substantial financial support over the years [10][11] - This dependency on government funding has raised concerns about the company's long-term sustainability and market independence [10][11] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company's valuation is expected to undergo a fundamental shift, transitioning from a high-growth tech stock to a low-growth utility or supplier stock, leading to a significant decrease in valuation multiples [12] - This change in valuation logic reflects a broader trend in the market, where investor sentiment may shift away from companies that fail to deliver on growth promises [12]