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广发期货全品种价差日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:18
Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for various futures contracts on September 30, 2025, covering black, non - ferrous, agricultural, energy chemical, and financial futures [1][2][3] Summary by Category Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, and historical quantile is 90% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, and historical quantile is 49.30% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is - 61, basis rate is - 1.85%, and historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, and historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is - 34, basis rate is - 2.04%, and historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2511)**: Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is - 160, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is - 40, basis rate is - 0.19%, and historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is - 25, basis rate is - 1.0%, and historical quantile is 21.80% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is - 1010, basis rate is - 0.37%, and historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is 100, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, and historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is - 370, basis rate is - 0.90%, and historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.76%, and historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Agricultural Series - **Soybean Meal (MSe01)**: Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is - 43, basis rate is - 1.47%, and historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, and historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9150, basis is - 84, basis rate is - 0.92%, and historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, and historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ole01)**: Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, and historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, and historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, and historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: Futures price is 12295, spot price is 12550, basis is 255, basis rate is 2.07%, and historical quantile is 48.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD251)**: Futures price is 3016, spot price is 3400, basis is 384, basis rate is 12.73%, and historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, and historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.39%, and historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, and historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is - 1415, basis rate is - 14.86%, and historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is - 16.1, basis rate is - 0.24%, and historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, and historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is - 71, basis rate is - 1.68%, and historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is - 99, basis rate is - 1.56%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB251)**: Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is - 17, basis rate is - 0.25%, and historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2260.9, basis is - 10.9, basis rate is - 0.48%, and historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7184.9, basis is - 9.9, basis rate is - 0.14%, and historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is 118, basis rate is 1.71%, and historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is - 166, basis rate is - 3.39%, and historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is - 15, basis rate is - 0.60%, and historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: Futures price is 4293, spot price is 4548, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, and historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, and historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: Futures price is 11340, spot price is 11500, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, and historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is 100, basis rate is 8.86%, and historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is 90, basis rate is 7.53%, and historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is - 770, basis rate is - 5.04%, and historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Series - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFF**: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is - 15.5, basis rate is - 0.34%, and historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - **IH2512.CHE**: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is - 118.4, basis rate is - 1.61%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is - 160.4, basis rate is - 2.14%, and historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is - 0.01, basis rate is - 0.01%, and historical quantile is 25.40% [5] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, and historical quantile is 42.40% [5] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, and historical quantile is 51.20% [5]
全品种价差日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:00
Report Information - Report title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: September 29, 2025 [3] Core Content Black Series - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The futures price is 5970, the spot reference price is 5848, the basis is 122, the basis rate is 2.09%, and the historical quantile is 48.00% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The futures price is 3260, the spot reference price is 3114, the basis is 146, the basis rate is 4.69%, and the historical quantile is 50% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures price is 6.6796 (the unit seems abnormal), the spot reference price is 3370, the basis is 53, the basis rate is 1.72%, and the historical quantile is 42.40% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The futures price is 843, the spot reference price is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port, the basis is 790, the basis rate is 44.20%, and the historical quantile is 6.6796 (the unit seems abnormal) [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The futures price is 1693, the spot reference price is the converted price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke A13 S0.7.CSR60.MT7 at Rizhao Port, the basis is - 79, the basis rate is - 4.57%, and the historical quantile is 22.55% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The futures price is 1197, the spot reference price is the converted price of S13 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi, the basis is - 32, the basis rate is - 2.63%, and the historical quantile is 18.30% [1] - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: The futures price is 5758, the spot reference price is 5660, the basis is 98, the basis rate is 1.73%, and the historical quantile is 69.00% [6] Non - ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2511)**: The futures price is 82470, the spot reference price is SNN J with energy - using regulations, the basis is - 3012, the basis rate is - 3.65% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 44.37% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: The futures price is 20745, the spot reference price is SMM A00 aluminum average price, the basis is 25, the basis rate is 0.12%, and the historical quantile is 64.79% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures price is 2901, the spot reference price is SMM alumina index average price, the basis is - 90, the basis rate is - 3.10% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 52.64% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: The futures price is 21880, the spot reference price is SMM 1 zinc average price, the basis is - 60, the basis rate is - 0.27% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 32.70% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: The futures price is 274070, the spot reference price is SMM 1 tin average price, the basis is - 370, the basis rate is - 0.14%, and the historical quantile is 36.45% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: The futures price is 195, the spot reference price is SMM 1 imported nickel average price, the basis is 121380 - 195 = 121185 (calculated), the basis rate is a very large value (calculated), and the historical quantile is 67.29% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: The futures price is 13320, the spot reference price is 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee), the basis is - 480, the basis rate is - 3.60% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 3.74% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The futures price is 720, the spot reference price is SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, the basis is 73600 - 720 = 72880 (calculated), the basis rate is a very large value (calculated), and the historical quantile is 0.99% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The futures price is 8960, the spot reference price is SMM East China oxygen - containing SI5530 average price, the basis is 540, the basis rate is 6.03%, and the historical quantile is 37.07% [1] Precious Metals Series - **Gold (AU2512)**: The futures price is 6758, the spot reference price is Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D), the basis is - 3.2, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 19.60% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: The futures price is 10551.0, the spot reference price is Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D), the basis is - 81.0, the basis rate is - 0.76%, and the historical quantile is not given [1] Agricultural Products Series - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The futures price is 2937.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of ordinary soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, the basis is - 47.0, the basis rate is - 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The futures price is 8162.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, the basis is 158.0, the basis rate is 1.94%, and the historical quantile is 31.50% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The futures price is 9180, the spot reference price is the delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port, the basis is - 56.0, the basis rate is - 0.61%, and the historical quantile is 8.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The futures price is 2405.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, the basis is 125.0, the basis rate is 5.20%, and the historical quantile is 67.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The futures price is 10162.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu, the basis is 238.0, the basis rate is 2.34%, and the historical quantile is 75.10% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The futures price is 2178.0, the spot reference price is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xuzhou Port, the basis is 102.0, the basis rate is 4.68%, and the historical quantile is 94.00% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The futures price is 2480.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin, the basis is 120.0, the basis rate is 4.84%, and the historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2511)**: The futures price is 15520, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of live pigs (foreign one - yuan) in Henan, the basis is - 25.0, the basis rate is - 0.20%, and the historical quantile is 40.70% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: The futures price is 3400, the spot reference price is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the basis is 364.0, the basis rate is 11.99%, and the historical quantile is 59.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The futures price is 13405.0, the spot reference price is the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton 3128B, the basis is 1550.0, the basis rate is 11.56%, and the historical quantile is 95.70% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The futures price is 2880, the spot reference price is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, the basis is 412.0, the basis rate is 7.52%, and the historical quantile is 74.00% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: The futures price is 8401.0, the spot reference price is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union), the basis is 199.0, the basis rate is 2.37%, and the historical quantile is 28.70% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The futures price is 11285.0, the spot reference price is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union), the basis is - 1785.0, the basis rate is - 15.82%, and the historical quantile is 21.40% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - xylene (PX511)**: The futures price is 6656.0, the spot reference price is the converted RMB price of para - xylene at China's main ports (CFR), the basis is 19.6, the basis rate is 0.29%, and the historical quantile is 29.80% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The futures price is 4595.0, the spot reference price is the market price (intermediate price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China, the basis is 51.0, the basis rate is 1.10%, and the historical quantile is 34.70% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The futures price is 4213.0, the spot reference price is the market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China, the basis is 62.0, the basis rate is 1.47%, and the historical quantile is 80.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The futures price is 6915.0, the spot reference price is the market price of styrene in East China, the basis is - 34.0, the basis rate is - 0.49%, and the historical quantile is 20.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The futures price is 2250.0, the spot reference price is the market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, the basis is - 105.0, the basis rate is - 4.46%, and the historical quantile is 12.00% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The futures price is 1610.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong, the basis is - 59.0, the basis rate is - 3.54%, and the historical quantile is 3.00% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The futures price is 7165.0, the spot reference price is the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) (film grade) in Shandong, the basis is 23.80%, and the historical quantile is 7159.0 (data may be wrong) [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The futures price is 6893.0, the spot reference price is the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene (PP) (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang, the basis is - 113.0, the basis rate is - 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 4.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The futures price is 4740.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou, China, the basis is - 157.0, the basis rate is - 3.10%, and the historical quantile is 37.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The futures price is 2500.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, the basis is - 28.0, the basis rate is - 1.10%, and the historical quantile is 43.50% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: The futures price is 4548.0, the spot reference price is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou, the basis is 258.0, the basis rate is 6.01%, and the historical quantile is 47.60% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: The futures price is 3450.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong, the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is 1.45%, and the historical quantile is 62.20% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: The futures price is 11700.0, the spot reference price is the distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China by PetroChina, the basis is 270.0, the basis rate is 2.36%, and the historical quantile is 58.50% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The futures price is 1128.0, the spot reference price is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, the basis is - 124.0, the basis rate is - 10.09%, and the historical quantile is 24.52% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The futures price is 1203.0, the spot reference price is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe, the basis is - 90.0, the basis rate is - 7.48% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 10.06% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The futures price is 15470.0, the spot reference price is the market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai, the basis is - 770.0, the basis rate is - 5.24%, and the historical quantile is 47.70% [1] Financial Futures Series - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFE**: The futures price is 4550.0, the basis is - 25.0, the basis rate is - 0.55%, and the historical quantile is 17.60% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: The futures price is 2941.0, the basis is - 3.4, the basis rate is - 0.11%, and the historical quantile is 76.