1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term negative factors for the index have been exhausted, and it has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETFs have also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly. Core assets are expected to rise. Before the festival, there may be capital withdrawals, and there will be short - term fluctuations [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but the overall market sentiment is fragile and sensitive to negative factors. In the short term, with unclear positive factors, the bond market may maintain a volatile trend [3]. - For precious metals, the market sentiment needs time to recover after the sharp fall in the gold market due to rapid capital outflows. The "irrational" upward trend of silver is expected to end, bringing volatility reduction [3]. - The steel market is in a state of production reduction and inventory reduction, and the price maintains a range - bound trend [3]. - The new energy market has different trends. For example, the industrial silicon futures have rebounded in a volatile manner, while the lithium carbonate market has seen significant adjustments due to the profit - taking of risk - averse funds before the festival [3]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Variety Views - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The copper price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. The main contract focuses on the support level of 95,500 - 96,000 [3]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened to a high value this year. Long positions can take short - term profits when the price is high. The main contract operates in the range of 21,800 - 22,800, and long positions can be arranged after the price correction [3]. - Zinc: The decline in TC supports the price, and the spot performance is average. The main contract refers to the range of 22,800 - 23,800, with a low - buying strategy in the range, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage should be continued to hold [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - PX: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between PX2605 and PX2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - PTA: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between TA2605 and TA2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread of the 05 contract [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Corn: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has fallen after rising. It is in a weakly volatile state [3]. - Cotton: The supply - demand outlook is optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. It is in a strongly volatile state [3]. - Apple: The demand is weak, and the price is falling. It is recommended to close long positions at an appropriate time [3]. 3.2 Futures Variety Operation Suggestions - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread portfolio and match it with a small amount of short - selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and the central bank's bond - buying situation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of the first - quarter economic start and the stock market trend. The unilateral strategy is to wait and see for the time being, continue to pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and still tend to steepen the yield curve in the curve strategy [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is recommended to be purchased at a low price after the Spring Festival. For silver, before the New Year's Day, it is recommended to close or lock the positions and wait for a suitable allocation window after the festival [3].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report on all varieties dated December 31, 2025, with investment consulting business qualification (Certificate No. [2011] 1292) [2] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Futures price is 5750, the spot price is 5678, the basis is -72, the basis rate is -1.29%, and the historical quantile is 48.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Futures price is 5942, the basis is -0.37%, and the historical quantile is 21.60% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price is 3134, the spot price is 3300, the basis is 166, the basis rate is 5.30%, and the historical quantile is 66.60% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Futures price is 3282, the basis is 17.70%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Futures price is 870, the spot price is 789, the basis is -81, the basis rate is -10.22%, and the historical quantile is 61.00% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Futures price is 1715, the spot price is 1713, the basis is -2, the basis rate is -0.14%, and the historical quantile is 63.40% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Futures price is 1156, the spot price is 1120, the basis is 37, the basis rate is 3.26%, and the historical quantile is 36.70% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2602)**: Futures price is 97620, the spot price is 98090, the basis is -470, the basis rate is -0.48%, and the historical quantile is 14.37% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: Futures price is 22180, the spot price is 22565, the basis is -385, the basis rate is -1.71%, and the historical quantile is 0.41% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Futures price is 2701, the spot price is 2751, the basis is -50, the basis rate is -1.82%, and the historical quantile is 17.62% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Futures price is 23230, the spot price is 23380, the basis is -150, the basis rate is -0.64%, and the historical quantile is 23.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2602)**: Futures price is 323500, the spot price is 326330, the basis is -2830, the basis rate is -0.87%, and the historical quantile is 8.95% [1] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Futures price is 129300, the spot price is 132390, the basis is -3090, the basis rate is 0.62%, and the historical quantile is 400 (not clear if this is correct format) [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: Futures price is 13090, the spot price is 13320, the basis is 230, the basis rate is 1.76%, and the historical quantile is 42.91% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Futures price is 118000, the spot price is 121580, the basis is -3580, the basis rate is -2.94%, and the historical quantile is 13.21% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SIS605)**: Futures price is 335, the spot price is 9250, the basis is 8915, the basis rate is 19.96%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2602)**: Futures price is 982.2, the spot price is 984.8, the basis is -2.6, the basis rate is -0.27%, and the historical quantile is 29.40% [1] - **Silver (AG2604)**: Futures price is 18119.0, the spot price is 18140.0, the basis is -21.0, the basis rate is -0.12%, and the historical quantile is 49.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M5605)**: Futures price is 2778.0, the spot price is 3060, the basis is 282.0, the basis rate is 10.15%, and the historical quantile is 67.90% [1] - **Soybean Oil (A5e02)**: Futures price is 7878.0, the spot price is 8300, the basis is 422.0, the basis rate is 5.36%, and the historical quantile is 73.30% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Futures price is 8620, the spot price is 8658.0, the basis is -38.0, the basis rate is -0.44%, and the historical quantile is 15.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Futures price is 2403.0, the spot price is 2550, the basis is 147.0, the basis rate is 6.12%, and the historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Oleos)**: Futures price is 9086.0, the spot price is 9820, the basis is 734.0, the basis rate is 8.08%, and the historical quantile is 94.60% [1] - **Corn (C2603)**: Futures price is 2230.0, the spot price is 2330, the basis is 100.0, the basis rate is 4.48%, and the historical quantile is 88.70% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2603)**: Futures price is 2526.0, the spot price is 2620, the basis is 94.0, the basis rate is 3.72%, and the historical quantile is 42.90% [1] - **Live Hogs (H2603)**: Futures price is 11790.0, the spot price is 12500, the basis is 710.0, the basis rate is 6.02%, and the historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Futures price is 2910, the spot price is 2938.0, the basis is -28.0, the basis rate is -0.99%, and the historical quantile is 36.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Futures price is 14560.0, the spot price is 15384, the basis is 824.0, the basis rate is 5.66%, and the historical quantile is 34.80% [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Futures price is 5258.0, the spot price is 5420, the basis is 162.0, the basis rate is 3.08%, and the historical quantile is 0.00% [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Futures price is 9200, the spot price is 9200, the basis is 0.0, the basis rate is 23.70%, and the historical quantile is not provided [1] - **Red Dates (CJ605)**: Futures price is 8300, the spot price is 9020.0, the basis is -720.0, the basis rate is -7.98%, and the historical quantile is 58.30% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX603)**: Futures price is 7316.0, the spot price is 7203.0, the basis is -113.0, the basis rate is -1.54%, and the historical quantile is 9.20% [1] - **PTA (TA605)**: Futures price is 5144.0, the spot price is 5100.0, the basis is 44.0, the basis rate is -0.80%, and the historical quantile is 40.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Futures price is 3847.0, the spot price is 3710.0, the basis is -137.0, the basis rate is -3.56%, and the historical quantile is 9.60% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Futures price is 6564.0, the spot price is 6540.0, the basis is -24.0, the basis rate is -0.37%, and the historical quantile is 34.90% [1] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: Futures price is 6860.0, the spot price is 6781.0, the basis is 79.0, the basis rate is 1.17%, and the historical quantile is 46.50% [1] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Futures price is 2219.0, the spot price is 2182.0, the basis is -37.0, the basis rate is -1.67%, and the historical quantile is 15.60% [1] - **Urea (UR605)**: Futures price is 1743.0, the spot price is 1710.0, the basis is -33.0, the basis rate is -1.89%, and the historical quantile is 7.80% [1] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Futures price is 6461.0, the spot price is 6365.0, the basis is -96.0, the basis rate is -1.49%, and the historical quantile is 3.90% [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: Futures price is 6321.0, the spot price is 6275.0, the basis is -46.0, the basis rate is -0.73%, and the historical quantile is 14.40% [1] - **PVC (V2605)**: Futures price is 4810.0, the spot price is 4500.0, the basis is -310.0, the basis rate is -6.44%, and the historical quantile is 5.80% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH603)**: Futures price is 2196.9, the spot price is 2273.0, the basis is -76.1, the basis rate is -3.35%, and the historical quantile is 31.80% [1] - **LPG (PG2602)**: Futures price is 4528.0, the spot price is 4097.0, the basis is 431.0, the basis rate is 10.52%, and the historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2602)**: Futures price is 3038.0, the spot price is 2940.0, the basis is -98.0, the basis rate is -3.23%, and the historical quantile is 30.50% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2602)**: Futures price is 11565.0, the spot price is 11500.0, the basis is -65.0, the basis rate is -0.56%, and the historical quantile is 22.80% [1] - **Float Glass (FG605)**: Futures price is 896.0, the spot price is 1051.0, the basis is -155.0, the basis rate is -17.30%, and the historical quantile is 8.19% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Futures price is 1122.0, the spot price is 1181.0, the basis is -59.0, the basis rate is -5.26%, and the historical quantile is 18.69% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Futures price is 15300.0, the spot price is 15670.0, the basis is -370.0, the basis rate is -2.42%, and the historical quantile is 74.89% [1] Financial Futures - **IF2603.CFF**: Futures price is 4651.3, the spot price is 4622.2, the basis is 29.1, the basis rate is 0.63%, and the historical quantile is 14.20% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: Futures price is 3036.6, the spot price is 3035.4, the basis is 1.2, the basis rate is 0.04%, and the historical quantile is 49.70% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: Futures price is 7458.9, the spot price is 7381.0, the basis is 77.9, the basis rate is 1.06%, and the historical quantile is 6.80% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: Futures price is 7459.2, the spot price is 7597.3, the basis is -138.1, the basis rate is 1.85%, and the historical quantile is 10.60% [1] - **2 - Year Bond (152603)**: Futures price is 100.13, the spot price is 102.48, the basis is -2.35 (calculated), the basis rate is -1.85%, and the historical quantile is 17.80% [1] - **5 - Year Bond (TF2603)**: Futures price is 105.81, the spot price is 99.51, the basis is -6.3 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.07%, and the historical quantile is 17.90% [1] - **10 - Year Bond (T2603)**: Futures price is 107.94, the spot price is 100.31, the basis is -7.63 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 22.70% [1] - **30 - Year Bond (TL2603)**: Futures price is 126.22, the spot price is 111.80, the basis is -14.42 (calculated), the basis rate is 0.27%, and the historical quantile is 42.50% [1]