贵金属期货(AU2602
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广发期货日评-20251231
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-31 02:17
1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term negative factors for the index have been exhausted, and it has rebounded continuously. The broad - based ETFs have also clearly flowed back recently, with limited downside space. The volatility is showing signs of recovery, and the RMB exchange rate has risen significantly. Core assets are expected to rise. Before the festival, there may be capital withdrawals, and there will be short - term fluctuations [3]. - The sentiment in the bond market has recovered, but the overall market sentiment is fragile and sensitive to negative factors. In the short term, with unclear positive factors, the bond market may maintain a volatile trend [3]. - For precious metals, the market sentiment needs time to recover after the sharp fall in the gold market due to rapid capital outflows. The "irrational" upward trend of silver is expected to end, bringing volatility reduction [3]. - The steel market is in a state of production reduction and inventory reduction, and the price maintains a range - bound trend [3]. - The new energy market has different trends. For example, the industrial silicon futures have rebounded in a volatile manner, while the lithium carbonate market has seen significant adjustments due to the profit - taking of risk - averse funds before the festival [3]. 3. Summaries According to Different Categories 3.1 Futures Variety Views - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: The copper price has corrected, and the spot discount has narrowed. It is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. The main contract focuses on the support level of 95,500 - 96,000 [3]. - Aluminum: The spot discount has widened to a high value this year. Long positions can take short - term profits when the price is high. The main contract operates in the range of 21,800 - 22,800, and long positions can be arranged after the price correction [3]. - Zinc: The decline in TC supports the price, and the spot performance is average. The main contract refers to the range of 22,800 - 23,800, with a low - buying strategy in the range, and the cross - market reverse arbitrage should be continued to hold [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - PX: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between PX2605 and PX2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - PTA: The short - term is in a high - level volatile state; the medium - term should be treated with a low - buying strategy; the long - short spread between TA2605 and TA2609 should be mainly long at low levels [3]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price has risen significantly. It is recommended to reduce the MTO spread of the 05 contract [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Corn: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has fallen after rising. It is in a weakly volatile state [3]. - Cotton: The supply - demand outlook is optimistic. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream enterprises. It is in a strongly volatile state [3]. - Apple: The demand is weak, and the price is falling. It is recommended to close long positions at an appropriate time [3]. 3.2 Futures Variety Operation Suggestions - **Stock Index Futures**: It is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread portfolio and match it with a small amount of short - selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for hedging [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: In the short term, pay attention to the capital situation and the central bank's bond - buying situation. In the medium term, pay attention to the performance of the first - quarter economic start and the stock market trend. The unilateral strategy is to wait and see for the time being, continue to pay attention to the positive arbitrage in the spot - futures strategy, and still tend to steepen the yield curve in the curve strategy [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold is recommended to be purchased at a low price after the Spring Festival. For silver, before the New Year's Day, it is recommended to close or lock the positions and wait for a suitable allocation window after the festival [3].
广发期货日评-20251202
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 05:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the US dollar index has recently peaked and declined, and further interest rate cuts remain a high - probability scenario. A - share major indices have also rebounded, but the trading volume does not support a breakthrough. [3] - There may be incremental information that could break the bond market's consolidation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying scale in October announced in early November. [3] - Gold prices have broken through previous resistance and are expected to rise further above $4200; silver prices may further approach the previous high of $54 under the influence of the delivery period. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index - With the pro - cyclical sector performing strongly, all stock indices have risen. Short - term advice is to lightly sell December put options. When volatility is low, one can gradually build a bull spread on dips to layout for the spring market. [3] Treasury Bonds - As funds have loosened, treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly. In the short term, if there is unexpectedly positive news, treasury bond futures may have a phased rebound; otherwise, it will be difficult to break out of the consolidation. Unilateral strategies suggest reducing left - hand operations, and attention should be paid to the central bank's bond - buying scale and the implementation of redemption regulations. For cash - and - carry strategies, attention should be paid to the 2603 contract's cash - and - carry and basis - widening strategies. [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise further above $4200; silver prices may approach the previous high of $54. Platinum strategies should maintain a low - buying approach or buy out - of - the - money call options, and a long - platinum short - lithium hedge can also be tried. [3] Black Sector - For steel, consider a long - rebar short - iron - ore arbitrage and narrow the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a reference range of 750 - 820. Coking coal and coke are expected to rebound in a volatile manner, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. [3] Non - ferrous Sector - Copper prices have risen again due to supply shortage concerns. For aluminum, short - term low - buying is recommended. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For other non - ferrous metals, specific trading ranges and strategies are provided. [3] New Energy Sector - Industrial silicon futures have declined after volatility, with a price range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, buy out - of - the - money put options. For lithium carbonate, wait and see. [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - For various chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc., different trading strategies are provided according to their supply - demand situations, including high - level consolidation, short - term low - level cash - and - carry, and narrowing processing fees. [3] Agricultural Sector - For agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, etc., different market trends and trading suggestions are given, such as narrow - range consolidation, following overseas markets to rise, and bottom - level consolidation. [3]