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全品种价差日报-20260331
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 07:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View The report presents the futures prices, spot prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities across multiple sectors on March 31, 2026, including black, non - ferrous, precious metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical, and financial sectors, offering insights into the market conditions of these commodities. 3. Summary by Sector Black Series - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Futures price is 6008, spot price is 6066, basis is - 28, basis rate is - 1.00%, and historical quantile is 50.00% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM603)**: Futures price is 6570, spot price is 6588, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.80%, and historical quantile is 21.70% [1] - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price is 3139, spot price is 3230, basis is 91, basis rate is 2.90%, and historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2605)**: Futures price is 3308, spot price is 3290, basis is - 18, basis rate is - 0.50%, and historical quantile is 11.80% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: Futures price is 813, spot price is 840, basis is 27, basis rate is 3.30%, and historical quantile is 23.00% [1] - **Coke (J2605)**: Futures price is 1754, spot price is 1756, basis is 2, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 68.30% [1] - **Main Coking Coal (J5)**: Futures price is 1214, spot price is 1297, basis is 83, basis rate is 6.80%, and historical quantile is 48.00% [1] Non - Ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2605)**: Futures price is 95760, spot price is 95195, basis is - 565, basis rate is - 0.59%, and historical quantile is 14.20% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2605)**: Futures price is 24725, spot price is 24530, basis is - 195, basis rate is - 0.79%, and historical quantile is 13.50% [1] - **Alumina (AO2605)**: Futures price is 2941, spot price is 2789, basis is - 152, basis rate is - 5.17%, and historical quantile is 17.50% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2605)**: Futures price is 23540, spot price is 23350, basis is - 190, basis rate is - 0.81%, and historical quantile is - 55 [1] - **Tin (SN2605)**: Futures price is 370720, spot price is 361800, basis is - 8920, basis rate is - 2.41%, and historical quantile is 1.90% [1] - **Nickel (NI2605)**: Futures price is 137120, spot price is 135150, basis is - 1970, basis rate is - 1.44%, and historical quantile is 4.80% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2605)**: Futures price is 14450, spot price is 14370, basis is 250, basis rate is 1.74%, and historical quantile is 5.50% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: Futures price is 171620, spot price is 164500, basis is - 7120, basis rate is - 4.15%, and historical quantile is 48.70% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SISE05)**: Futures price is 9200, spot price is 8480, basis is 720, basis rate is 8.49%, and historical quantile is 48.70% [1] Precious Metals Series - **Gold (AU2606)**: Futures price is 998.66, spot price is 992.5, basis is - 6.2, basis rate is - 0.62%, and historical quantile is 0.90% [1] - **Silver (AG2606)**: Futures price is 17489.0, spot price is 17467.0, basis is - 22.0, basis rate is - 0.13%, and historical quantile is 51.00% [1] Agricultural Products Series - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Futures price is 3120, spot price is 2937, basis is 213, basis rate is 62.70%, and historical quantile is 7.25% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2605)**: Futures price is 8890, spot price is 8714, basis is 176, basis rate is 2.02%, and historical quantile is 36.80% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2605)**: Futures price is 9930, spot price is 9720, basis is - 210, basis rate is - 2.11%, and historical quantile is 0.10% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM605)**: Futures price is 2330, spot price is 2320, basis is 10, basis rate is 0.43%, and historical quantile is 49.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI605)**: Futures price is 10320, spot price is 9891, basis is 429, basis rate is 4.34%, and historical quantile is 89.90% [1] - **Corn (C2605)**: Futures price is 2390, spot price is 2346, basis is 44, basis rate is 1.88%, and historical quantile is 58.50% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2605)**: Futures price is 2900, spot price is 2737, basis is 163, basis rate is 5.96%, and historical quantile is 79.20% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2605)**: Futures price is 10005, spot price is 9350, basis is - 655, basis rate is - 6.55%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] - **Eggs (JD2605)**: Futures price is 3453, spot price is 3400, basis is - 53, basis rate is - 1.53%, and historical quantile is 35.50% [1] - **Cotton (CF605)**: Futures price is 16650, spot price is 15385, basis is 1265, basis rate is 8.22%, and historical quantile is 86.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR605)**: Futures price is 5480, spot price is 5441, basis is 39, basis rate is 0.72%, and historical quantile is 7.60% [1] - **Apples (AP605)**: Futures price is 9863, spot price is 9800, basis is - 63, basis rate is - 0.64%, and historical quantile is 22.30% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ605)**: Futures price is 8775, spot price is 7900, basis is - 875, basis rate is - 9.97%, and historical quantile is 46.90% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - Xylene (PX605)**: Futures price is 10167.0, spot price is 9840.0, basis is - 327.0, basis rate is - 3.30%, and historical quantile is 96.40% [1] - **PTA (TA605)**: Futures price is 6768.0, spot price is 6720.0, basis is - 48.0, basis rate is - 0.71%, and historical quantile is 41.20% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2605)**: Futures price is 5365.0, spot price is 5359.0, basis is 6.0, basis rate is 0.11%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF606)**: Futures price is 8470.0, spot price is 8342.0, basis is 128.0, basis rate is 1.53%, and historical quantile is 74.20% [1] - **Styrene (EB2605)**: Futures price is 10935.0, spot price is 10789.0, basis is 146.0, basis rate is 1.35%, and historical quantile is 57.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA605)**: Futures price is 3520.0, spot price is 3319.0, basis is 201.0, basis rate is 6.06%, and historical quantile is 96.20% [1] - **Urea (UR605)**: Futures price is 1900.0, spot price is 1882.0, basis is 18.0, basis rate is 0.96%, and historical quantile is 23.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2605)**: Futures price is 8925.0, spot price is 8804.0, basis is 121.0, basis rate is 1.37%, and historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - **PP (PP2605)**: Futures price is 9400.0, spot price is 9269.0, basis is 131.0, basis rate is 1.41%, and historical quantile is 64.80% [1] - **PVC (V2605)**: Futures price is 5551.0, spot price is 5450.0, basis is - 101.0, basis rate is - 1.82%, and historical quantile is 57.10% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH605)**: Futures price is 2353.0, spot price is 2306.0, basis is - 47.0, basis rate is - 1.99%, and historical quantile is 38.90% [1] - **LPG (PG2605)**: Futures price is 7348.0, spot price is 6606.0, basis is 742.0, basis rate is 11.23%, and historical quantile is 86.90% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2606)**: Futures price is 4513.0, spot price is 4420.0, basis is - 93.0, basis rate is - 2.06%, and historical quantile is 32.60% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2605)**: Futures price is 18500.0, spot price is 17725.0, basis is 775.0, basis rate is 4.37%, and historical quantile is 96.50% [1] - **Glass (FG605)**: Futures price is 1040.0, spot price is 952.0, basis is - 88.0, basis rate is - 9.24%, and historical quantile is 46.60% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA605)**: Futures price is 1207.0, spot price is 1187.0, basis is - 20.0, basis rate is - 1.68%, and historical quantile is 46.80% [1] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2605)**: Futures price is 9062.0, spot price is 8930.0, basis is - 132.0, basis rate is - 1.46%, and historical quantile is 28.20% [1] - **Propylene (PL2605)**: Futures price is 8944.0, spot price is 8770.0, basis is - 174.0, basis rate is - 1.95%, and historical quantile is 17.30% [3] - **Bottle Chips (PR2605)**: Futures price is 8633.0, spot price is 8326.0, basis is 307.0, basis rate is 3.69%, and historical quantile is 98.50% [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: Futures price is 16540.0, spot price is 16350.0, basis is - 190.0, and historical quantile is not provided [3] Financial Series - **Stock Index Futures (IF2606.CFE)**: Futures price is 4414.0, spot price is 4491.9500, basis is - 77.9500, basis rate is - 1.77%, and historical quantile is 2.30% [3] - **Stock Index Futures (IH2606.CFE)**: Futures price is 2814.4, spot price is 2837.3064, basis is - 22.9064, basis rate is - 0.81%, and historical quantile is 5.70% [3] - **Stock Index Futures (IC2606.CFE)**: Futures price is 7560.6, spot price is 7753.7234, basis is - 193.1234, basis rate is - 2.55%, and historical quantile is 0.30% [3] - **Stock Index Futures (IM2606.CFE)**: Futures price is 7509.4, spot price is 7767.9301, basis is - 258.5301, basis rate is - 3.44%, and historical quantile is 0.60% [3] - **2 - Year Treasury Bonds (TS2606)**: Futures price is 102.54, spot price is 100.16, basis is 0.06, basis rate is 0.06%, and historical quantile is 50.40% [3] - **5 - Year Treasury Bonds (TF2606)**: Futures price is 106.07, spot price is 100.33, basis is 0.09, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 43.40% [3] - **10 - Year Treasury Bonds (T2606)**: Futures price is 108.36, spot price is 99.99, basis is 0.10, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 30.20% [3] - **30 - Year Treasury Bonds (TL2606)**: Futures price is 111.52, spot price is 122.46, basis is 0.52, basis rate is 0.46%, and historical quantile is 74.00% [3]
广发期货日评-20260310
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships, with different trends for different varieties. For example, some varieties are expected to be volatile, while others show short - term strength or weakness [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2604) is expected to be volatile and strong; Methanol (MA2605) is expected to be weak; Silicon iron (SF605) is expected to be volatile and strong; Palm oil (P2605) is expected to be strong in the short term [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Equity Indexes - Equity indexes bottomed out and rebounded, and energy risks may be alleviated. With the possibility of subsequent negotiations increasing in the Middle - East conflict, it may gradually cool down, but the uncertainty remains high. It is recommended to wait and see, reduce operations, maintain a low position, and wait for the macro - situation to be clearer [3] Precious Metals - Gold has key support at the 20 - day moving average of $5000, and it is necessary to wait and see cautiously. It is recommended to observe the volatility change and sell out - of - the - money call options above $1170 in the short term; Silver fluctuates repeatedly and tests the support of the 60 - day moving average, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value; Platinum and palladium are supported by the tightening supply expectation but are dragged down by gold and silver, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [3] Steel and Related Products - For steel, cost pushes up the price, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions when the price is high. For iron ore, macro - disturbances intensify, and supply - demand expectations are revised, with wide - range fluctuations between 750 - 800. For coking coal, the spot is gradually stabilizing, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1100 - 1250. For coke, the steel mill reduces the coke price, and it is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850. For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the market sentiment is changeable, and the cost boosts the price. It is recommended to wait and see for one - sided operations and do 5 - 9 positive spreads [3] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices bottomed out and stabilized, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For aluminum, due to the spread of the Middle - East supply crisis, it is recommended to buy on dips. For zinc, the inventory accumulation slows down, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For tin, the panic in the market dissipates, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term. For nickel, the macro - risk increases, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 134000 - 142000. For stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust within the range of 14000 - 14500 [3] New Energy and Chemical Products - For polycrystalline silicon, the spot price falls, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate within the short - term range. For lithium carbonate, the macro - uncertainty increases, and it is recommended to try to buy out - of - the - money call options lightly. For crude oil, it is recommended to wait and see. For PX, PTA, pure benzene, and styrene, due to the high - level decline of oil prices, it is recommended to reduce long positions. For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, the operations are mainly related to raw material prices and processing fees [3] Agricultural Products - For oilseeds, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. For live pigs, it is necessary to pay attention to the supply reduction. For corn, it runs at a high level. For oils, it is expected to be volatile and strong. For sugar, it is strong in the short term. For cotton, it is recommended to reduce long positions. For eggs, it is strong in the short term. For apples, it is recommended to match long positions with put options for protection. For red dates, it is recommended to short on short - term rebounds [3] Shipping - For the container shipping European line, the probability of short - term navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is low, and it is recommended to do 6 - 10 positive spreads or wait and see [3]