1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market is expected to operate weakly but may be affected by fuel prices [3] - The valuation of the 04 contract is neutral, and the 06 contract has become the main contract. It is recommended to wait and see because it is greatly affected by geopolitical news and shipping company behavior, and its valuation is difficult to anchor [3] - Due to the ongoing and unpredictable geopolitical risks, it is recommended to observe opportunities arising from the deviation of monthly spreads, but attention should be paid to the current poor liquidity of EC [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2604 - EC2612 contracts on the previous day ranged from 1592.8 to 2586.2, with price changes from -5.46% to 2%. For example, EC2604 was 1672.9 with a -27.2% change, and EC2606 was 2394.1 with a -5.46% change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contracts on the previous day varied from 42 to 20444, and the open interest ranged from 467 to 16342, with changes in open interest from -1369 to -4 [2] - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of different contract combinations (e.g., EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605) showed different values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. For example, the EC2604 - 2606 spread was -721.2, with a day - on - day increase of 91.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 160.1 [2] Spot Market Information - **Spot Index Changes**: The TERMINAL index on March 30, 2026, was 1752.54 points, with a 3.50% increase from the previous period. The SCFI index on March 27, 2026, was 1703 dollars/TEU, with a 4.10% increase from the previous period [2] - **European Line Spot Situation**: The price increase in April failed. In Week 14, the average quotation was 2570 dollars, equivalent to 1800 points on the disk. In Week 15, Maersk's quotation was 2350 dollars (a 300 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and the average quotation of shipping companies was 2450 dollars, equivalent to 1715 points on the disk. In Week 16, Maersk's opening quotation was 2200/2300 dollars, and a 400 - dollar/FEU surcharge was implemented for long - term contracts [4] Relevant News - Trump said that the US would end the war in Iran in two to three weeks and would give a national speech on the Iran issue at 9 pm local time on the next day (9 am Beijing time on Thursday) [5] - The Iranian president was willing to end the war under the condition of obtaining guarantees [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Core View - As geopolitical risks cool down and market sentiment doesn't improve, industrial products mostly decline. However, with the reduction of geopolitical disturbances, copper prices are expected to return to fundamentals and rise in a volatile manner [6][10] Summary by Section I. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical risks cooled down, but market sentiment didn't improve, and most industrial products closed lower. Spot prices rose by 405 to 95600, and the discount remained flat at 55 [10] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 24,300 tons to 403,100 tons compared to last Thursday. After the holiday, domestic social inventory decreased by nearly 30% from the highest point, and the inventory reduction speed is the fastest in the past five years, indicating high - level downstream consumption [10] - **Scrap Copper Situation**: The refined - scrap copper price difference dropped to - 251. The scrap copper ticket points in Jiangxi and Guangdong exceeded 10%, and the processing fees for crude copper in the north and south decreased rapidly, showing a shortage of scrap copper supply and economy [10] II. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RCs) in the second quarter of 2026 [10] - **Co - operation of Mines**: Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco and Anglo American have obtained approval from the Chilean antitrust regulator to jointly operate the Andina and Los Bronces copper mines. The plan is expected to increase the annual output of copper concentrate by 120,000 tons from 2030 to 2051, with an additional cumulative output of 2.7 million tons of copper and an additional pre - tax value of at least $5 billion [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 0.82% lower at 16,345 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 55 yuan/ton. With the approaching of a new round of rubber - tapping period, the supply of Shanghai rubber is expected to increase, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and weakening trend in the future [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating downward, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 3,373 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 3,172 yuan/ton, closing 4.69% lower at 3,229 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 month spread premium widened to 271 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks, methanol gave back part of its premium, and it is expected that the methanol futures will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the 2605 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 766.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 725.0 yuan/barrel, closing 2.94% lower at 740.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the short - term cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Iran semi - blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the US and Iran attacked each other. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons or 0.85%. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 1.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.17 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.48 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.36 percentage points [8]. - As of March 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will slightly decline in the next cycle [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8%. Although automobile sales in the first two months declined due to multiple factors, exports maintained high growth, with a 52.4% year - on - year increase in February [9]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.66%, a week - on - week increase of 2.05%, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.99%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0717 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 244,800 tons compared with 1.8269 million tons in the same period of the previous year [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 34.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.66%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 57.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 532 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 606 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 755,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 219,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,300 tons. As of the week of March 26, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 435,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100,300 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 107,200 tons compared with 327,800 tons in the same period of the previous year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period of the previous year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.657 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 83,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 456.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 6.926 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 22.558 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 30.945 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.421 million barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 92.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 5.9 percentage points [13]. - As of March 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 223,620 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,923 contracts and a significant increase of 84,511 contracts or 60.75% compared with the February average of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 24, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 315,830 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 12,874 contracts and a significant increase of 154,436 contracts or 95.69% compared with the February average of 161,394 contracts [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,350 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | 16,345 yuan/ton | - 195 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | + 195 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 3,560 yuan/ton | + 200 yuan/ton | 3,229 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 331 yuan/ton | + 90 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 776.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 740.6 yuan/barrel | - 22.9 yuan/barrel | + 35.9 yuan/barrel | + 22.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts such as rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][18][20]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts such as methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG faces geopolitical risks and frequent supply disruptions, while propylene has fundamental support and a relatively strong trend [3]. - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is both 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - For LPG (PG), on March 30, 2026, the closing prices of PG2604, PG2605, and PG2606 were 6,616, 6,606, and 6,436 respectively, with daily declines of 3.20%, 2.26%, and 1.79%. The overnight closing prices were 6,619, 6,590, and 6,423, with overnight changes of 0.05%, -0.24%, and -0.20%. The trading volumes and open interests also had corresponding changes [3]. - For propylene (PL), the closing prices of PL2604, PL2605, and PL2606 were 8,765, 8,944, and 9,082 respectively, with daily changes of -3.53%, -0.62%, and 0.80%. The overnight closing prices were 8,765, 9,010, and 9,107, with overnight changes of 0.00%, 0.74%, and 0.28%. The trading volumes and open interests also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: - For LPG, prices in different regions such as Shandong, East China, and South China had varying degrees of increase. For example, Shandong civil LPG price increased by 350 to 6,450, and East China imported LPG price increased by 30 to 7,460 [3]. - For propylene, prices in Shandong and East China also increased. Shandong propylene price increased by 455 to 8,770, and East China propylene price increased by 300 to 9,275 [3]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up**: - As of March 27, 2026, the PDH start - up rate was 63.6, a decrease of 2.03 compared to the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 38.6, an increase of 1.29, and the MTBE start - up rate was 69.89, an increase of 0.38 [3]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: - On March 30, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US decreased by 2.8 to 14.7 (in ten thousand tons), and the shipment volume to Asia decreased by 9.3 to 4.9. The shipment volume from the Middle East to the world and Asia both decreased by 4.6 to 0.0 [3]. 3.2. Market Information - On March 30, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo prices for propane and butane were 655 and 652 US dollars per ton respectively, up 14 and 16 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - cargo price for propane was 666 US dollars per ton, up 16 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [8]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, involving companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The maintenance start times range from 2023 to 2026, and most of the end times are undetermined [8][9]. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, including Shanneng Petrochemical, Dongchen Petrochemical, Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical, etc. The maintenance durations range from 55 to 60 days [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk remains high, causing platinum and palladium to fluctuate. The short - term market risk preference is low, and investors are advised to be cautious. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the valuation of platinum, but the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices. Palladium follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.66% to 497.5 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: The US released positive signals of suspending strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and negotiating with Iran, but Trump's remarks increased uncertainty. Short - term geopolitical risk remains high, market volatility is large, and risk preference is low. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is pessimistic. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is conducive to platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects the market [2] - **Outlook**: The high energy prices push up the US inflation expectation and postpone the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, there is structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3] - **Outlook**: The spot tightness has eased recently, and with macro - level suppression, it is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 30, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2615.59, with a daily increase of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.29%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.62% [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is in a stage of oscillatory repair after a rapid correction. The driving force has shifted from single - factor risk - aversion to a dual - game of "geopolitical support + re - inflation constraint". Gold has underlying support, while silver shows higher volatility [1]. - Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, but high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential. The market is unlikely to return to a unilateral loose - trading stage in the short term and is more likely to maintain an oscillatory repair pattern [2]. - Silver follows the repair trend of precious metals but has significantly higher volatility than gold. It is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term. Its price may show alternating repair and retracement characteristics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The Middle East situation is still in a stage of high - level fluctuations, with negotiation signals and military pressure coexisting. The geopolitical risk premium has not significantly declined. Oil prices remain high, suppressing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the US dollar is generally strong [1]. Gold - **Viewpoint**: Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, while high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential [2]. - **Logic**: The Middle East situation still has risks in military deployment, energy transportation security, and regional spill - over, making it difficult for the market to fully unwind the geopolitical premium. High oil prices increase concerns about inflation stickiness and the Fed's delayed interest - rate cuts, constraining gold's upward momentum. After a rapid decline, the repair of gold prices indicates that allocation demand still exists, but the market has not returned to a unilateral loose - trading stage [2]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation, oil - price transmission, and changes in the Fed's policy expectations. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, gold still has allocation value; if negotiation expectations rise and high oil prices continue to suppress the interest - rate cut space, the upward slope of gold may be limited [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: Silver follows the repair trend but has higher volatility than gold and is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term [2][3]. - **Logic**: Silver benefits from the overall stabilization and repair of precious metals and has higher price elasticity when gold stops falling. The increase in energy prices has begun to be transmitted to the industrial product chain, supporting silver's sentiment. However, due to its dual financial and industrial attributes, silver's price fluctuates more in a strong - dollar and risk - asset - pressured environment, showing alternating repair and retracement [3]. - **Outlook**: If gold continues to repair and industrial product sentiment remains strong, silver has room for a supplementary increase; if the US dollar remains strong or the market shifts back to liquidity - contraction trading, silver's volatility may further increase [3]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [43]. - **Plate Index**: The precious metals index on March 30, 2026, is 3769.72, with a daily increase of 1.46%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month decrease of 18.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.43% [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On March 27, the prices of platinum and palladium opened low and moved high but maintained a volatile trend due to the lack of significant positive drivers. PT2606 closed down 0.02% to 493.05 yuan/gram, and PD2606 closed down 0.01% to 358.20 yuan/gram. Geopolitical risks may continue to escalate, and the high oil price may support the real - interest rate at a high level, while the weakening of the US stock market and the decline of the US bond yield support the prices. The decline of the 1 - month palladium lease rate indicates a short - term relief of the palladium shortage, which may limit its upward drive. It is expected that platinum and palladium will probably maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the Middle - East geopolitical situation becomes relatively clear, investors can consider buying platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures主力收盘价 rose 1.16% to 493.05 from 487.4; spot platinum (99.95%) fell 2.26% to 475 from 486; platinum basis (spot - futures) increased 1189.29% to - 18.05 from - 1.4. - Lithium futures主力收盘价 rose 1.37% to 358.2 from 353.35; spot lithium (99.95%) fell 1.13% to 348.5 from 352.5; lithium basis (spot - futures) increased 1041.18% to - 9.7 from - 0.85 [4]. International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum rose 0.03% to 1892.8 from 1892.3; London spot palladium fell 0.06% to 1401.427 from 1402.207. - NYMEX platinum rose 0.98% to 1894.5 from 1876.1; NYMEX palladium rose 0.29% to 1406.5 from 1402.5 [4]. Internal - External 15:00 Spread (yuan/gram) - The dollar/yuan mid - price rose 0.12% to 6.9141 from 6.9056. - The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum increased 39.04% to 17.59 from 12.65; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum increased 2.68% to 17.17 from 16.72 [4]. Ratios - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to lithium changed - 0.0029 to 1.3794 from 1.3765; the ratio of London spot platinum to lithium changed 0.0011 to 1.3495 from 1.3506 [5]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory fell 0.81% to 554241 from 558768; NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged at 248374 [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position fell 8.65% to 61473 from 67292; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of platinum fell 4.14% to 16198 from 16898. - NYMEX total palladium position rose 3.13% to 15556 from 15069; NYMEX non - commercial net long position of palladium increased 571.35% to - 185 from - 1242 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2, the precious metals market will remain in a fierce game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, with high - volatility characteristics hard to fade quickly. The core drivers focus on two main lines: the Fed's policy path and the trend of US Treasury yields, and the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern [3][98]. - Gold's macro - suppression is the short - term dominant factor, but geopolitical risks have not subsided. Gold's core position as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains stable, and the correction can be regarded as a medium - to - long - term allocation window. Silver will fluctuate more violently, and it is difficult to participate. Platinum shows relative resilience, while palladium will continue to lag due to its weak fundamentals [4][101]. - In operation, it is recommended to prioritize risk control and take a long - term perspective. Gold can be used as a strategic bottom - position and gradually deployed on dips. For silver and platinum - group metals, only extremely light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended, and heavy - position chasing up or killing down should be avoided [5][101]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market experienced extreme fluctuations from a historic surge to a cliff - like flash crash and then to a continuous deep adjustment. The market's driving logic switched among geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and macro - suppression, with significant differentiation among varieties [7]. - From January to mid - February, geopolitical and policy expectations resonated, leading to a historic surge in precious metals. However, on January 30, the market reversed due to changes in policy expectations, and precious metals crashed. In February, the market entered a high - level shock consolidation phase [8]. - From late February to March, geopolitical conflicts and macro - suppression alternately dominated, and precious metals entered a deep adjustment. Platinum and palladium showed different performances in the macro - suppression, with platinum showing relative resistance and palladium falling more significantly [9][10]. - In late March, the market entered a stage of repeated news and low - level shocks, with precious metals showing different degrees of fluctuations [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks - In Q1, global geopolitical situations deteriorated. Different from the traditional "conflict means safe - haven" logic, precious metals did not rise with oil prices but fell after the conflict escalated. Geopolitical risks are reshaping the precious metals' valuation system through the "inflation transmission" path [31]. - Currently, the Middle - East conflict is deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided. Its impact on precious metals has shifted from direct safe - haven driving to indirect transmission through "inflation expectations - macro - policies - US dollar valuation." In the short term, high oil prices and tight macro - expectations suppress precious metals, but the market's over - pessimistic pricing of the Fed's interest - rate hikes may be corrected [32]. 3.2.2 Monetary Policy - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed is facing unprecedented uncertainties. The meeting signaled that inflation prevention is the top priority, and the space for interest - rate cuts this year has narrowed [33][34]. - Powell admitted the difficulty of predicting the future and policy modeling due to geopolitical conflicts. He also refuted the "stagflation" narrative to maintain the discourse power of economic narratives. His stance on staying in office provides short - term stability but leaves medium - to - long - term uncertainties [36][37]. 3.2.3 Inflation - In February 2026, the US CPI performance was "average." The market's focus has shifted to how oil prices will push up inflation after March and how the Fed will balance the "stagflation" risk. The 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has been revised down to "at most once" [43]. 3.2.4 Economic Growth - In February, the US manufacturing PMI expansion slowed down, with input prices soaring to a four - year high. The service PMI jumped unexpectedly, with new orders and backlogs surging. The employment data in February was unexpectedly negative, strengthening the market's concern about the cooling labor market. In the long - term, the weak employment and high inflation situation intensifies the market's concern about "stagflation" [46][47][49]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index - In Q1, the US Treasury market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical conflicts. The yields of two - year, five - year, and ten - year US Treasuries rose significantly. The US dollar index strengthened in Q1, directly suppressing precious metals [57][59]. 3.3 Precious Metals Supply - demand Analysis 3.3.1 Gold - In Q4 2025, the global gold market was strong, with total demand and gold prices hitting record highs. Investment demand was the core driver. Supply increased slightly, while investment demand grew explosively. The demand structure was significantly differentiated, with high gold prices suppressing physical gold jewelry consumption but increasing the demand value [61][62]. 3.3.2 Silver - In 2025, the global silver market is expected to show a "moderate decline in total demand but significant structural differentiation" feature. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap, providing medium - to - long - term support for silver prices [67]. 3.3.3 Platinum - In 2025, the platinum market was in a supply shortage for the third consecutive year, and the gap widened. In 2026, the shortage pattern is expected to continue, and the fundamental support has been significantly enhanced [71][74]. 3.3.4 Palladium - The palladium market presents a complex pattern of "short - term shortage and long - term structural pressure." In the short term, the supply is tight, but in the long term, the demand for palladium in fuel - vehicle catalysts may decline due to the global automotive electrification transformation [77]. 3.4 Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis 3.4.1 Gold ETF Holdings - In February 2026, global gold ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with the total holdings reaching a new high. Different regions showed different trends, with North America leading the inflow, Europe having outflows, and Asia and other regions having inflows. Gold and silver ETF flows indicate that the bullish sentiment has converged [80][81][83]. 3.4.2 CFTC Positions - As of the week of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net long positions of gold and silver futures decreased, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures decreased slightly, while those of palladium futures increased [87]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 25, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased significantly, the SHFE gold inventory reached a new high, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, and the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [92]. 3.5 Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In Q2, the precious metals market will be in a game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern. Gold can be considered for medium - to - long - term allocation on dips. Silver and platinum - group metals are highly volatile, and only light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [98][101].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures showed a trend of "mild accumulation in the early stage, slow increase and stalemate in the mid - stage, and extreme sharp rise in the late stage" driven by geopolitical factors [1] - In Q2, geopolitical risks and supply security are still the core variables. The Iran - US conflict has led to the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a shortage of crude oil supply, and production cuts by many countries. The geopolitical situation in Q2 will still dominate crude oil supply and prices, with three possible scenarios: low - intensity stalemate, marginal easing, or conflict escalation [1] - The buffer effect of supply supplements mainly comes from the consumption of inventories of related substitute products and reserve inventories. In Q2, OPEC's production will be relatively limited due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and inventory pressure, while the production of the US, Russia, etc. has room for moderate growth [1] - There is a risk of demand decline due to supply shortages and high oil prices. The continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused refineries in the Middle East and Asia to reduce their loads. If high oil prices and supply shortages persist, it will lead to a negative demand feedback [2] - In terms of macro and monetary policy transmission, the market is pricing in some inflation expectations, and it is expected that the US may only cut interest rates once this year, possibly postponed to September or later [2] - Based on three scenarios for price estimation: in the case of low - intensity long - term stalemate, Brent is expected to fluctuate between $80 - 120 per barrel; if some oil fields in the Gulf countries stop production and the strait gradually resumes navigation, Brent may fall to $70 - 90 per barrel; if the conflict escalates to a ground war, Brent may break through the previous high of $120 per barrel [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Chapter Chapter 1: Core Views - **Price Trend in Q1 2026**: The international crude oil price showed a trend of "mild accumulation in the early stage, slow increase and stalemate in the mid - stage, and extreme sharp rise in the late stage" under the influence of the Iran - US situation. The price of Brent rose from above $60 to $120 [1][5] - **Key Points to Focus on in Q2**: Geopolitical risks, supply supplements, demand decline risks due to supply shortages and high oil prices, and macro and monetary policy transmission [1][2] - **Price Estimation**: Based on three scenarios, the longer the strait is closed, the higher the price center of oil will be [3] Chapter 2: Market Review - **Low - level Oscillation and Accumulation Period (Late December 2025 - January 2026)**: Due to domestic turmoil in Iran and increased US military deployment, the price center of Brent rose above $60 [5] - **Negotiation Stalemate and Slow - rise Period (Early February - February 27, 2026)**: Three rounds of negotiations between the US and Iran ended in stalemate, and the price of Brent rose to $70 [5] - **Conflict Outbreak and Sharp - rise Period (February 28, 2026 - Present)**: After the US - Israel joint air strikes, Iran launched counter - attacks and threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing the price of Brent to soar to $120 [5] - **Impact on the Market**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant reduction in exports from major Middle Eastern oil - producing countries, and Asian buyers have adjusted their procurement structures, driving up the prices of non - mainstream oil types and subsequent arrival costs in the Asian market. The monthly spread of the crude oil market has changed from relatively flat to steeply ascending [7][9] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points - **Geopolitical Risks and Supply Security**: Geopolitical situation in Q2 remains the key factor determining crude oil supply and price. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed, resulting in a daily supply shortage of about 8 - 9 million barrels and a total production cut of about 7 - 8 million barrels per day. Three possible future scenarios are low - intensity long - term stalemate, marginal easing, and conflict escalation [11][12] - **Supply Supplements**: OPEC+'s production increase is limited by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and inventory pressure. The US has room for moderate production increase but is also affected by policies. The production of some South American countries has a limited increase. The short - term supply increment mainly comes from Russia's inventory reduction and SPR release, but it is insufficient to fill the Middle Eastern supply gap [15][18][21] - **Risk of Demand Decline**: In Q2, there is a risk of demand decline. Refineries may reduce their loads due to high - priced raw materials and feedstock shortages, and high oil prices will also suppress terminal consumption demand [28] - **Macro and Monetary Policy Transmission**: The market is pricing in the stagflation chain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates only once this year, possibly postponed to September or later. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than two months, it may lead to inflation and even stagflation or recession [30][31] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Valuation Feedback** - **Monthly Structure**: The Back structure of Brent may continue, and its strength depends on the evolution of the Middle East situation. The WTI structure is more affected by the US domestic situation, and the SC structure is expected to remain relatively flat [35][36] - **Regional Spread**: It is affected by the conflict progress. In different scenarios, the spreads of Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, and BDSS will change differently [39][40] - **Supply - Demand Outlook** - **Supply - Demand Balance**: EIA and IEA maintain the view of a surplus in the global crude oil supply - demand pattern in 2026, but the surplus has decreased. Q2 is the most tense quarter [43] - **Supply Side**: There is room for moderate growth in production in Q2 compared to Q1, with the US, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Brazil as the main sources of increment [46] - **Demand Side**: There is an expectation of weakening short - term demand. Refinery开工率 may decline, and the 3 - month crude oil processing volume has decreased, especially in Asia and the Middle East [48] - **Inventory**: Russian oil inventory has decreased, Iranian oil inventory has started to decline, European inventory is relatively low, and Middle Eastern inventory is increasing, which may lead to more production cuts [50]