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中国互联网行业_即时零售月度报告_企稳迹象-China Internet Sector_ Quick commerce monthly_ Signs of stabilization
2025-09-18 13:09
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China's Quick Commerce Sector, including food delivery and InstaShopping [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Sector Volume Growth**: The sector has shown a steady year-over-year growth momentum, with total time spent on rider apps as a proxy for order volume. Growth accelerated from 18% in Q2 to 37% in early September [3][9]. - **Competition Dynamics**: - Meituan holds the largest market share at 65%, followed by Eleme at 25% and JD at 10% as of August. This trend shows signs of stabilization into early September [4][13]. - JD's weekly Daily Active Users (DAU) growth is the fastest at 34% YoY, while Meituan and Alibaba grew by 2% and 15% respectively [48]. - **Rider and Merchant Competition**: - The share of third-party (3P) riders has increased significantly, indicating a shift in rider dynamics. The proportion of 3P riders has risen from 80% to 91% [5][21]. - Eleme is catching up with Meituan in terms of first-party (1P) rider DAU, which has nearly doubled for Eleme while Meituan's has remained steady [5][31]. - Merchant overlap is increasing, with Eleme targeting to grow its merchant supply from 60% to 80% of Meituan's level by year-end [38]. Additional Important Insights - **Stock Recommendations**: - Preference for Alibaba (BABA) over JD and Meituan due to its strong core performance and potential for long-term value creation [6][54]. - JD is viewed as having an attractive near-term risk/reward profile, while Meituan is seen as relatively passive in competition [8][54]. - **Market Strategy**: - Platforms are expected to focus on improving efficiency and retaining users in preparation for the Double 11 shopping festival [12][53]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with platforms likely to emphasize service differentiation and operational efficiency amid regulatory scrutiny [53]. Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - The evolving competitive landscape, fast-moving technology trends, and regulatory changes pose significant risks to the sector [57][58][59][60]. - For Alibaba, risks include regulatory changes and competitive pressure from offline retailers [58]. - JD faces challenges related to profitability visibility and competition [59]. - Meituan's risks include heavy investment pressures and potential growth slowdowns [60]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the quick commerce sector in China.