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Will S&P Inclusion Take Robinhood Stock To $220?
Forbes· 2025-09-10 09:40
Core Insights - Robinhood Markets has shown exceptional performance in 2025, with a stock price increase of over 2.5 times since January, recently boosted by its inclusion in the S&P 500, leading to a pre-market trading rise of over 7% [2][3] - The company’s revenues have grown significantly from $280 million in 2019 to approximately $2.9 billion in 2024, with a forecasted revenue of around $4 billion for 2025, indicating a potential for sustained growth driven by customer expansion and crypto market involvement [6][7] - Robinhood's user base has expanded to 26.5 million funded accounts, with platform assets totaling $279 billion, which enhances its revenue-generating capabilities [8] - The company's crypto revenues surged by 98% last quarter to $160 million, supported by strategic acquisitions and a favorable regulatory environment [9] - Adjusted net margins have improved from negative levels in FY'21 to roughly 35% in FY'24, with potential to reach around 40% as operational leverage increases [11] - The inclusion in the S&P 500 may sustain a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, making a stock price exceeding $220 within the next few years a tangible possibility [13] Revenue Growth Potential - Revenue is projected to rise from an estimated $4 billion in FY'25 to approximately $7.3 billion by FY'27, representing an increase of over 82% [7] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on a significant transfer of wealth from older generations to millennials and Gen Z, which is expected to amount to tens of trillions of dollars over the next two decades [10] Margin Expansion - The upward trend in adjusted net margins is driven by high-margin revenue streams and increased transaction volumes, particularly in crypto [11] - If revenues reach $7.3 billion with 40% adjusted net margins, earnings could increase to about $2.9 billion, representing a 2.9 times increase compared to 2024 [11][12] Market Position and Strategy - Robinhood's focus on younger retail investors and the introduction of diversified financial products positions it for long-term growth as its user base matures [10] - The company’s strategic acquisitions, such as Bitstamp, enhance its capabilities in the cryptocurrency sector and broaden its service offerings [9]