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当前时点如何看光模块反弹行情
2025-06-06 02:37
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI computing market** and **optical module market**, with a focus on companies like **NVIDIA**, **Broadcom**, and **Mellanox** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][12][24]. Key Points and Arguments NVIDIA Highlights - NVIDIA's quarterly report indicates that **Blackwell products** accounted for **70%** of its revenue in Q1, with a deployment speed of **1,000 racks per week**. The expected deployment for Q2 is between **6,000 to 10,000 racks** [1][4]. - The transition from **GB200 to GB300** is expected to be smooth, with **GB300** potentially shipping by the end of Q2. Key changes include enhanced **HBM configuration** and standard **CX8 network cards** [1][4]. - The recovery in **network card sales** significantly impacts the release of **1.6T orders** [4]. Mellanox Performance - Mellanox's network business exceeded expectations, with **MV link sales** around **$1 billion** and contributions from **ID and Ethereum** also reaching **$1 billion** quarter-over-quarter [5]. Sovereign AI Investments - Sovereign nations are investing more in AI than anticipated, with significant orders from countries like **Saudi Arabia**. NVIDIA plans to promote more sovereign AI deals in Europe [6]. - The **Google IO conference** highlighted a **50-fold year-over-year increase** in monthly **TOKEN consumption**, reaching **480 trillion**, which supports the demand for AI inference [6]. Optical Module Market - The optical module market is expected to see significant growth next year, with **800G products** projected to grow by over **50%** in volume, while price declines are expected to be limited [3][12]. - The anticipated demand for **1.6T** products is expected to double next year, driven by the increased adoption of **GB300** and **GB200** configurations [3][13]. Broadcom's Tomahawk 6 - Broadcom's **Tomahawk 6** was released earlier than expected, which is anticipated to accelerate industry iteration. Full-scale delivery is expected by **2026 or 2027** [7][8]. Market Trends and Recommendations - The overall industry feedback is positive, with strong signals from the AI computing infrastructure construction and a recovery in the supply chain [2]. - Companies like **NewEase** are gaining market share, with their share in the **800G and 400G** sectors exceeding **20%** in 2025 [15][16]. - **Tianfu Communication** is recommended as a key investment due to its leading position in the **1.6T optical engine market**, with significant growth expected from its partnerships, particularly with **MetaLus** [19][20]. Passive Components vs. Optical Modules - Passive components are noted to have better gross margins and long-term certainty compared to optical modules. The optical device market is projected to reach approximately **100 billion RMB** (around **$15 billion**) by 2025, with passive components accounting for a significant portion [24][25]. AI Technology Impact - The development of AI technology is significantly impacting the industry, with major cloud providers expected to see profits exceeding **$350 billion** by 2025, driven by the ongoing AI arms race [26]. Future Outlook - The hardware industry outlook for **2026** is optimistic, with strong indicators of growth and profitability across various sectors [28]. Other Important Content - The conference also touched on the potential of **multi-modal model training** in AI, which is expected to expand beyond current applications, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for AI technologies [27].