Core Viewpoint - Coherent Corp. reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, driven by significant demand in AI-related datacenter products and the introduction of new optical networking technologies [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $1.50 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 24% [5][19]. - GAAP gross margin was 35.2%, up 491 basis points year-over-year, while non-GAAP gross margin was 38.5%, an increase of 490 basis points year-over-year [5][19]. - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $0.11 per diluted share, an improvement of $0.18 year-over-year, and a non-GAAP net income of $0.91 per diluted share, up $0.53 year-over-year [5][19]. Operational Highlights - The company paid down $136 million of its outstanding debt, emphasizing cash and capital allocation as priorities [2]. - Operating income for Q3 FY2025 was $72 million, a decrease of 47.6% quarter-over-quarter but a significant increase of 222% year-over-year [19]. - Total operating expenses for Q3 FY2025 were $456 million, a 22.4% increase year-over-year [19]. Product and Market Developments - Coherent was recognized as an NVIDIA Ecosystem Innovation Partner, collaborating on silicon photonics and co-packaged optics for AI infrastructure [8]. - The company received six Product Innovation Awards at the Optical Fiber Communication Conference 2025, highlighting its advancements in datacenter and communications technologies [8]. - Coherent demonstrated groundbreaking technologies, including a 400G EML for next-generation transceivers and a portfolio of co-packaged optics solutions [8][9]. Business Outlook - For Q4 FY2025, revenue is expected to range between $1.425 billion and $1.575 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin percentage anticipated between 37% and 39% [15]. - Total operating expenses for Q4 FY2025 are projected to be between $290 million and $310 million on a non-GAAP basis [15].

Company Overview - Coherent Corp. (COHR) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 7, with revenue expectations of $1.4 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 19.1% and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 86 cents, indicating a 62.3% increase from the previous year [1] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 20.3% [2] Earnings Estimates - Current earnings estimates for Q1 and Q2 are 0.86 and 0.92 respectively, with full-year estimates of 3.47 and 4.28 [2] - There have been no recent changes in analyst estimates, with a slight downward revision of -0.29% for F1 and -0.70% for F2 [2] Market Performance - COHR shares have increased by 23.7% over the past year, outperforming its industry growth of 24.6% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 10% growth [6] - The stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 2.67X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.76X and Alithya Group's 1.28X, but lower than AirJoule Technologies' 7.83X [9] Industry Insights - The telecom segment is expected to drive revenue growth, with a reported 11% year-over-year increase in Q2 fiscal 2025, attributed to strong demand for new products like 100G, 400G, and 800ZR/ZR+ coherent transceivers [5] - The rise in data traffic due to AI workloads is anticipated to boost investments in higher-capacity interconnects, benefiting Coherent's optical transport networks [10] Future Outlook - Management projects that 1.6T transceivers will be a key contributor to revenue in 2025, ensuring growth beyond the current 800G cycle [12] - The demand for high-speed optical transceivers is expected to increase as hyperscalers expand their AI training and inference workloads [11] Investment Considerations - Despite the positive outlook, potential revenue growth may be hindered by delayed AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical risks, particularly between the U.S. and China [13] - The company is viewed as fundamentally strong but carries a premium valuation, suggesting that investors may benefit from holding the stock while waiting for a more favorable entry point [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongji InnoLight with a target price reduced to CNY 125, implying a 54% upside from the closing price of CNY 81.19 on April 21, 2025 [5][26]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue and earnings growth in FY24, with year-on-year revenue growth of 122.6% and earnings growth of 142.6%. However, 1Q25 revenue growth was subdued at 37.8% year-on-year due to a shortage of EML chips, while earnings rose 56.8% year-on-year, driven by better gross profit margins [1][2][19]. - Demand for 800G transceivers is expected to remain strong, while demand for 1.6T transceivers may slow down this year but is anticipated to ramp up next year. The easing of the EML chip shortage is expected to improve shipment volumes in the coming quarters [2][19]. - The report highlights that a temporary tariff exemption is currently easing margin pressure and may boost near-term shipments, although the risk of a tariff hike remains a concern [3][19]. Financial Summary - FY24 revenue was reported at CNY 23,862 million, with a projected revenue of CNY 37,228 million for FY25 and CNY 41,462 million for FY26. The normalized net profit for FY24 was CNY 5,171 million, with projections of CNY 8,202 million for FY25 and CNY 9,373 million for FY26 [4][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve slightly, with FY25-26F GPM raised by 0.1 percentage points due to a better product mix [16][19]. - The company is currently trading at a normalized P/E of 9.7x for FY26F, which is below the median P/E range of the China electronic/communication component companies [1][4][19].