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2025-08-18 01:00
Summary of Conference Call on Optical Module Industry Industry Overview - The optical module industry is experiencing a significant shift due to the explosive demand from the North American inference market, which is expected to enhance the sustainability of capital expenditures in 2025 [1][4] - Chinese companies are playing an increasingly important role in the technological iteration of optical modules, particularly in high-end products like 800G and 1.6T, leading to a growing market share and concentration towards leading firms [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - The demand for pluggable optical modules in the inference market has been underestimated, with a notable increase in the ratio of ASIC chips to optical modules, such as Meta and Amazon's ratios of 1:6 to 1:8, and Huawei's Cloud Matrix reaching 1:18 [1][7] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a sharp increase in the optical module market, primarily driven by the North American inference demand and the ramp-up in 800G laser module demand, with expectations for continued growth in the third and fourth quarters [1][8] - Major tech companies in North America are making substantial investments in AI computing, which supports the demand for optical modules, with leading companies currently undervalued [1][10] Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - Since May, the optical module industry has seen a significant rise, particularly with companies like Xuchuang showing outstanding performance. However, investors have mixed views on future trends, focusing on market saturation, short-term positioning, and future development [2] - The optical module industry underwent adjustments from June to November 2023 due to slowing user growth for GPT-4 and concerns over the sustainability of capital expenditures, but a recovery is anticipated with the rise of Sora optical interconnect technology [3] Supporting Evidence for Industry Growth - Three key pieces of evidence support the growth of the optical module industry: performance guidance from inference chips like ASICs, growth in enterprise leasing in computing, and the significant increase in token consumption by major companies like Google [5] - The trend towards optical interconnect technology is expected to increase hardware demand significantly, as the industry shifts from copper to optical connections in scale-up networks [14] Future Investment Opportunities - The outlook for investment in the optical module sector remains optimistic, with accelerated AI model iterations and substantial investments in AI computing by major U.S. companies [9][10] - The upcoming 1.6T product upgrade cycle is expected to bring significant changes, with major companies likely to see accelerated performance [12] Company-Specific Insights - Taiyuan Optical's recent performance showed a net profit of approximately 94 million yuan, which, while not meeting expectations, remains within a reasonable range. Concerns about revenue and profit margins are considered short-term issues [19][25] - The revenue share of Taiyuan Optical in Corning's optical communication enterprise network business has fluctuated between 8% and 12% over the past several years, with a recent increase to 9% in Q2 2025 [20] - Despite lower revenue growth compared to Corning, Taiyuan Optical's performance in Q2 2025 indicates a healthy trajectory, with expectations for continued growth in the latter half of the year [21][25] Conclusion - The optical module industry is poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increased demand from the AI sector, with significant contributions from both North American and Chinese companies. The market dynamics suggest a favorable environment for investment, particularly in leading firms within the sector.