科技团队联合展望 - 2026 年度策略报告汇报会议 20251124 摘要 谷歌推出多模态理解模型，提升了光模块和 OCS 光交换等领域公司的业 绩预期，相关产业链公司如光模块、连接器制造商受益。 欧派预计 2029 年收入达 1,250 亿美元，2030 年达 2000 亿美元，美 国 Cloud 公司也上调收入预期，显示 AI 算力板块投资前景乐观，但需 关注短期交易压力。 电信运营商凭借高股息率成为红利资产，虽面临高基数和宏观经济压力， 但利润端仍具韧性，预计未来仍能维持稳健增长和可观股息回报。 量子计算领域超导路线稍领先，本源量子已启动 IPO。量子计算机单台 价值数千万美元，稀释制冷剂和超导同轴线缆是关键环节，值得重点关 注。 光模块行业对 2026 年预期乐观，800G 和 1.6T 需求上升，激光器和光 芯片供应紧张支撑业绩，SKOP 光连接带来更大空间，建议关注核心龙 头公司。 AI 需求强劲，挤占传统 PC、服务器和手机市场份额，冷热数据之间的 "温数据"形态显著拉动存储需求，推动存储市场行情。 AI 应用加速纵深发展，内容消费筑底回升。大厂流量竞争改写流量分配 格局，独立垂直生意 AI ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,836.77 | 0.05 | | 深证成指 | | 12,585.08 | 0.37 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,448.05 | -0.12 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,320.09 | -0.01 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,868.97 | 0.76 | | 中证 | 1000 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 5.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 7.2%, reflects a state of market panic, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [2][6][7] - The Fear and Greed Index for both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index is currently at historical lows, indicating a possible short-term recovery in market sentiment [7][8] Market Analysis - The decline in the Hong Kong market is attributed to several factors: 1. Unexpected growth in U.S. employment numbers alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] 2. Concerns over high asset prices potentially leading to market corrections, which has dampened trading sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The report notes that the technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the Hang Seng Technology Index underperforming compared to other indices [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market trend due to: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [8] 2. Continuous support for the domestic technology sector through policy initiatives, which could attract long-term capital and enhance market activity [8] - Investment strategies suggested include: 1. Focusing on emerging technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [8] 2. Identifying scarce resources that may benefit from valuation premiums due to shifts in energy transition and geopolitical factors [8] 3. Monitoring sectors like insurance and brokerage, which may see increased activity as low-interest rates encourage more equity investments [8]

Group 1 - The ChiNext Index experienced a slight decline of 0.01% as of November 24, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where BlueFocus led with a gain of 15.61% [1] - The ChiNext ETF by Bosera saw a decrease of 0.37%, with the latest price at 2.71 yuan, while it recorded a cumulative increase of 8.99% over the past three months as of November 21, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the ChiNext ETF was 13.68 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.18%, and the average daily trading volume over the past month was 39.82 million yuan [1] Group 2 - GAC Group announced the completion and production launch of a pilot line for all-solid-state batteries in Guangzhou, which is the first in the industry to achieve mass production conditions for automotive-grade all-solid-state batteries with a capacity of over 60Ah [2] - The solid-state battery technology is advancing from laboratory to pilot stages, with multiple companies initiating construction of pilot lines, focusing on overcoming material systems, manufacturing processes, and cost bottlenecks [2] - The recent strong performance of Google and NVIDIA is shaping a positive cycle in the AI industry, where model upgrades drive demand for computing power, which in turn supports model innovation [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the ChiNext ETF by Bosera reached 1.154 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 14.06 million yuan over the past three days, including a peak single-day net inflow of 5.71 million yuan [3] - The ChiNext Index is closely tracked by the ChiNext ETF, consisting of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the performance of the ChiNext market [3] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index accounted for 58.2% of the index, including companies like CATL and Mindray [3]

Core Insights - The technology cycle of AI is unlikely to end in the short term, with a continued focus on computing power as a key driver [1] - NVIDIA's recent earnings report exceeded expectations, indicating that the demand for computing power is still rapidly growing [1] - Google's Gemini3 model has received positive market feedback for its strong capabilities [1] - The hardware sector for computing power is expected to see significant growth in light modules and other components in the coming year [1] Industry Overview - The ongoing investment in computing infrastructure both domestically and internationally is expected to sustain high demand in the light module market [1] - The Communication ETF (515880) is the largest in its category, with light modules accounting for 52% and servers for 22% of its composition as of October 28 [1] - When combined with fiber optics and copper connections, these components represent over 81% of the ETF, reflecting the fundamental strength of overseas computing power [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月24日早盘，英伟达产业链获利好，光模块表现活跃，光库科技领涨超14%，长芯博创、锐捷网络涨 超5%，中际旭创、新易盛等飘红。光模块含量超54%的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内下探逾1% 后再度翻红拉升，实时成交额近3亿元。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | F9 盘前盘后 量加 九转 画线 工具 @ CO | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 159363 | 159363[创业板人工程能ETF华宝] 10:36 价 0.813 温深 0.006(0.74%) 均价 0.810 股. | 0.87 3 | +0.006 +0.74% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.82 | B/ 0 + | SZSE CNY 10:36:33 交易中 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential of the electronic skin industry, projecting a market size of $756 million by 2030, driven by the demand for humanoid robots [6][7] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that leading companies in the flexible tactile sensor market are predominantly based in Europe, the US, and Japan, holding 57.1% of the market share [6][7] - The report discusses the technological barriers in the electronic skin industry, focusing on materials, manufacturing processes, and algorithms as critical areas needing breakthroughs [6][7] Industry Overview - The electronic skin technology is categorized into five main types, with resistive, capacitive, and piezoelectric sensors being the most common [6] - The report indicates that the demand for humanoid robots is expected to drive the growth of the electronic skin market, with a long-term potential reaching trillions in the domestic humanoid robot market [6][7] - The report identifies key companies in the electronic skin sector, including Fulei New Materials, Hanwei Technology, and others, highlighting their technological advancements and market strategies [6][7] Company Analysis - The report provides an analysis of Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), noting a revenue of 25 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.4% [8] - The company’s gross margin and net margin have shown continuous improvement, indicating a shift towards higher-end product offerings [8] - The report mentions the company's plans for an H-share listing to enhance its international strategy and financing capabilities [8]

周五（11月21日），全球市场避险情绪继续发酵，受隔夜美股剧烈震荡影响，亚太主要股指齐挫。A股 大幅调整，超5000股飘绿，沪指失守3900点，收跌2.45%报3834.89点，深成指、创指分别下跌3.41%、 4.02%。全市场成交1.98万亿元，环比显著放量。 科技成长首当其冲，硬科技宽基双创龙头ETF（588330）场内收跌4.1%。创业板人工智能ETF （159363）跳空低开，场内放量跌4.83%，失守所有短期均线。此前持续活跃的有色、化工等周期板块 亦受挫，有色龙头ETF（159876）、化工ETF（516020）双双重挫，不过场内放量溢价，显示抄底资金 活跃。 普跌之际，"银伟大"再秀防御力，中国银行逆市涨0.8%续创历史新高，全市场规模最大的银行ETF （512800）早盘一度翻红。消费股逆市表现，消费龙头ETF（516130）、食品ETF（515710）、农牧渔 ETF（159275）等均跑赢大市，东方证券提示，展望2026年，食品饮料板块或"易涨难跌"。 | 代码 | 美型 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 成交额 | 溢折率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

周五（11月21日），创业板人工智能跳空大跌近5%，主要受光模块等算力硬件剧烈回调影响，截至收 盘，新易盛跌超8%创9月份以来新低，天孚通信跌超7%，中际旭创跌逾5%。AI应用方向则逆市活跃， 易点天下20CM涨停，万兴科技、中文在线、蓝色光标等涨超2%。 热门ETF方面，光模块含量超54%的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内收跌4.83%，失守所有短期均 线，为10月高点回调以来新低，单日成交9.2亿元。资金进场大举抢筹，全天净申购1.76亿份。 【海内外多事件催化，AI应用或迎补涨行情】 配置上看，中银证券指出，2025年以来，AI产业链内部已经经历了从海外算力-国产算力-存力与电力的 行情轮动，AI应用作为下游对比之下涨幅有限，仍具备较高配置性价比，产业拐点催化之下，AI应用 或将迎来补涨行情。 【算力高景气度持续，光模块有望引领反攻】 英伟达超预期财报印证了全球算力高景气度。机构指出，在全球算力需求持续高企的背景下，1.6T光模 块零售价格上涨，800G及以下速率光模块降价速度减缓，光模块行业一改以往量增价跌的态势，出现 了"量价齐增"的现象。 数量方面，此前据市场测算，明年全球800G光模块有 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]