7月10日（周四），A股震荡攀升，地产股掀涨停潮；银行股再度发力，工行、中行、建行、农行等创 历史新高；光模块CPO概念延续活跃态势。截至收盘，上证指数涨0.48%报3509.68点，盘中创9个月新 高；深证成指涨0.47%，创业板指涨0.22%，中证A500指数涨0.44%，市场成交额1.52万亿元。热门ETF 中，A500ETF基金（512050）单日成交额超37亿元位居同类第一，近1周规模增长1.26亿元。 兴业证券策略团队近期研报指出，关税风波后，国内经济呈现超预期韧性，花旗中国经济超预期指数显 著攀升并持续高位运行，大幅高于历史均值水平。并且，近期涉及地产、消费、资本市场等各领域政策 仍在积极发力，持续提振市场风险偏好。值得注意的是，A股进入中报业绩预告披露季，Wind数据显 示，截至7月10日12时，已有147家A股上市公司预告上半年业绩，其中129家预计盈利。工业富联等19 家公司预计归属于母公司所有者的净利润下限高于10亿元。 中国资产持续重估，新一代核心宽基A500ETF基金（512050）助力投资者一键布局A股核心资产。该 ETF所跟踪中证A500指数，采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策略，细 ...

Market Review - The A-share market rose by 1.22% during the week of June 30 to July 4, with strong performance in the glass and innovative drug sectors [2] - The average daily trading volume for the A-share market was 1.4384 trillion yuan, a decrease of 45 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating high market activity [2] - The average number of rising stocks decreased to 2,610, down by 1,012 from the previous week, reflecting a weakening profit effect [2] High Prosperity Sectors Outlook for Q2 2025 - High-growth potential sectors identified for Q2 2025 include optical modules, diesel generators, innovative drugs, and deep-sea technology [2] - The optical module sector is expected to maintain high growth due to increased data transmission rate requirements [29] - The diesel generator market is anticipated to see a rise in both volume and price as AIDC construction accelerates [37] - The innovative drug sector is benefiting from BD transactions and supportive policies, which are expected to enhance growth opportunities [39] - Deep-sea technology is showing high prosperity trends supported by policy initiatives [43] Key Themes - The "anti-involution" policy aims to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, facilitating high-quality industry development [3][47] - Deep-sea technology is positioned as a critical pillar of the marine economy, driving economic acceleration [3][54] - The global regulatory framework for stablecoins is rapidly taking shape, providing new opportunities for the internationalization of the renminbi [3][50] Policy Dynamics - The central bank is enhancing financial support for the real economy, with a focus on emerging industries and technology standards [4] - Recent policies emphasize the importance of high-quality development in the marine economy and the establishment of a unified national market [4][59] Industry Trends - The artificial intelligence sector is advancing with initiatives like the global multi-center plan for AI pathology models [5] - The TMT sector is seeing the introduction of the first national 6G industry policy in Beijing [5] - The biopharmaceutical sector is experiencing growth with increased clinical trials and innovations in brain-machine interfaces [5] - The deep-sea economy is being reinforced by the establishment of leadership groups to enhance industry coordination [5] - The high-end manufacturing sector is benefiting from the lifting of EDA export restrictions to China [5]

7月10日早盘，A股主要指数低开后快速翻红，盘面上光模块CPO、光通信等概念走强，长芯博创盘中 涨超13%，铭普光磁、天孚通信、中际旭创等跟涨。相关ETF中，5G通信ETF（515050）、创业板人工 智能ETF华夏（159381）高开。 消息面上，美股英伟达收高1.80%，股价创历史新高，市值盘中一度突破4万亿美元关口，成为全球首 家市值达到该里程碑的公司，超过英国、法国、德国等国家的股票总市值。值得注意的是，自今年4月 的低点以来，英伟达股价已涨近90%。美国投行Wedbush分析师Dan Ives预计，英伟达市值可能会在未 来18个月内达到5万亿美元。2024年，英伟达上涨逾170%，2023年大涨约240%。 多重利好提振，国内光模块CPO、PCB、服务器等英伟达产业链概念股近期表现强势，截至7月9日， 5G通信ETF（515050）6月以来涨近20%，光模块含量高的创业板人工智能ETF华夏（159381）涨近 17%。 资料显示，5G通信ETF（515050），跟踪中证5G通信主题指数，深度聚焦英伟达、苹果、华为产业 链，覆盖了多个AI算力、6G、消费电子、PCB、通信设备、服务器、光模块、物联网等 ...

高盛表示，AI芯片对光模块的配比率正在显著提升，这支撑了数据中心对高速光模块的需求，将光模块厂商2025-2027年 的净利润预测上调42%，目标价提升23%-82%。展望后续，高盛预计一线厂商估值收敛、二线厂商受益于需求外溢将成 为两大投资主线。。 硬·AI 作者 | 李笑寅 编辑 | 硬 AI 随着AI技术的迅猛发展，AI芯片与光模块的"配比率"持续提升，成为推动光模块行业增长的重要引擎。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Jin Guo、Allen Chang在其最新研报中表示，AI芯片与光收发器配比率持 续上升的趋势将显著增强行业长期发展韧性。 01 配比率提升驱动下 光模块需求有强劲支撑 AI芯片与光模块的配比率提升是行业增长的核心驱动力。 报告显示，基于厂商发布的参考设计，GPU/ASIC与光收发器的配比率呈明显上升趋势。 比如，H100和GB200的配比率约为1:3（每GPU需要3个800G光收发模块），而B300提升至1:4.5，特定 ASIC训练集群甚至达到1:8。这一变化源于新芯片更高的带宽需求以及网络架构从400G向800G甚至1.6T 的升级。 报告强调， 这种趋势意味着即使AI芯片销量增长 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the increasing ratio of AI chips to optical modules is a significant growth driver for the optical module industry, enhancing its long-term resilience [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts have raised the sales forecast for 800G optical transceiver modules to 19.9 million and 33.5 million units for 2025 and 2026, representing increases of 10% and 58% respectively, with market size expected to grow by 60% and 52% in USD terms during the same period [3] - The increase in the ratio of GPU/ASIC to optical transceivers is highlighted as a key growth driver, with specific ratios such as H100 at 1:3 and B300 at 1:4.5, indicating a rising demand for new chip bandwidth and network architecture upgrades [3] Group 2 - Investment themes identified include valuation convergence, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase expected to see their 2026 P/E ratios at a low point, and NewEase being approximately 20% lower than Zhongji Xuchuang [4] - Secondary manufacturers may benefit from demand overflow, as the surge in 800G demand creates capacity constraints for leading manufacturers, with Huagong Technology poised for mass production in the second half of 2025, potentially increasing net profit by 5% to 24% in 2026 if they secure U.S. customer orders [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The global AI sector remains highly prosperous, with continuous application development. Domestic telecom operators are experiencing a recovery in growth rates, and satellite internet is beginning to contribute to performance elasticity [4] - Telecom operators benefit from the ongoing promotion of the Digital China strategy, leading to stable overall business growth. Innovative businesses are growing faster and increasing their share, while new growth drivers continue to strengthen. Additionally, the reduction in capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue is favorable for profit release [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Telecom Operators - China Mobile's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 285.85 billion and 288.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%-2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 52.20 billion and 52.55 billion yuan, growing by 3.2%-3.9% [2] - China Telecom's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 132.80 billion and 134.10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1%-2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 13.57 billion and 13.66 billion yuan, growing by 2.7%-3.4% [2] - China Unicom's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 101.30 billion and 102.00 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%-4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 3.795 billion and 3.855 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%-7.3% [2] - China Tower's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 24.88 billion and 25.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5%-3.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 2.72 billion and 2.76 billion yuan, growing by 6.8%-8.4% [3] AI and Network Connection - The AI optical module sector is experiencing significant growth, with 800G optical modules continuing to ramp up production and 1.6T products entering mass production. Domestic companies are leading the industry and deeply participating in the global supply chain [3] - Zhongji Xuchuang's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 7 billion and 8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%-34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 1.75 billion and 2 billion yuan, growing by 30%-48% [3] AI Liquid Cooling - The trend towards liquid cooling in data centers is becoming more pronounced due to the increasing power consumption of AI servers. Yingwei's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 12 billion and 14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24%-45% [6] - Oulu Tong's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 11 billion and 12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22%-33% [7] AI Applications - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow steadily, benefiting from the development of the digital economy and AI computing power. Huqin Technology's Q2 revenue is projected to be between 350 billion and 365 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51%-58% [8] Military Communication & Satellite Internet - Increased regional tensions are likely to lead to sustained investment in national defense construction, with communication and information technology being key investment areas. The domestic low-orbit satellite network is expected to continue advancing [11] - Changjiang Communication's Q2 revenue is expected to be between 2.3 billion and 3.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10%-63% [12]

7月8日早盘，A股整体震荡上行，沪指挑战3500点关口，主要宽基指数悉数上行。电路板、高速铜连 接、光模块CPO、网络游戏、CRO、HBM等概念盘中活跃。近期热度较高的云计算50ETF（516630） 盘中涨近1.5%，持仓股中，新易盛、浪潮信息、中际旭创、紫光股份等涨幅居前，其中新易盛涨超 4%。 华龙证券指出，大模型兴起和生成式人工智能应用显著提升带动人工智能服务器市场规模持续扩大，带 动高速光模块需求快速增长。根据Lightcounting预测，2025年800G以太网光模块市场规模将超过 400G，随着高速光模块的快速导入，预计2029年800G和1.6T光模块的整体市场规模将超过160亿美元。 近年来中国光模块厂商在全球的市占率持续提升，最新发布的2024年全球光模块TOP10榜单显示，中国 厂商已在该领域占据主导地位（占7席）。该机构认为，高速光模块需求提升有望带动行业盈利能力提 升。 英伟达近期股价飙涨，国产算力产业链有望深度受益于海外映射逻辑。公开信息显示，云计算50ETF （516630）跟踪云计算指数（930851）。该指数的AI算力含量较高，覆盖了光模块&光器件、算力租 赁、数据中心、A ...

光模块的壁垒在哪里？ - 架构、迭代与格局 20250706 摘要 光模块技术快速迭代，从 800G 到 1.6T 乃至 3.2T，要求企业具备快速 响应市场需求和技术更新的能力，尤其需具备海外规模化产能和交付能 力。 光模块生产制造工序复杂，涉及芯片、器件、模块及耦合贴片等环节， 各工序良率直接影响产品质量，对企业生产管理提出高要求，部分工序 仍依赖手工操作。 光模块行业供应链结构清晰，菲尼萨、旭创、新易盛等头部企业占据重 要地位，新进入者难以撼动，这些厂商具备强大的交付能力和成熟产能。 龙头光模块公司毛利率稳定在 30%-50%，反映行业存在显著壁垒，并 非简单组装，而是涉及复杂精细的制造过程。 海外资本开支及 2026 年预期订单情况是本轮海外产业链领涨的基础， 推动新易盛、盛宏等核心标的发展，并带动市场人气上升。 光模块公司定义扩展至整个光子学领域，如旭创、新生天孚等向芯片设 计、器件制造及 CPU 和 optical IO 方向发展，以适应 AI 及基础设施对 光子学的更高要求。 AI 被视为长期投资，算力投入与 AI 发展形成正循环，海外算力产业链表 现强劲，头部科技公司有望加码投入，光模块行业不 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [6] Core Insights - The GB300 is expected to start volume production in the second half of the year, with significant advancements in AI performance and capabilities [1][8] - The central government emphasizes high-quality development of the marine economy, with wind power generation rapidly increasing, accounting for over 12% of total power generation [2][10] - There is a strong growth in overseas AI demand, particularly from new enterprises, driving high capital expenditure in AI [3][14] Summary by Sections GB300 Launch - CoreWeave announced the first market delivery of the NVIDIA GB300 NVL72, featuring advanced AI performance with over exaflop capabilities and significant improvements in user response speed and throughput [1][8] Marine Economy Development - The central government is focusing on enhancing the marine economy through policy support and encouraging social capital participation, with wind power generation capacity rapidly increasing [2][10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the AI capital expenditure and related sectors, highlighting the growth potential in the optical module industry and PCB supply chain [3][14] - Specific beneficiary stocks include NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication in the optical module sector, and China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom in the telecommunications sector [3][16][17] - The marine economy sector is also highlighted, with companies like Zhongtian Technology and Hengtong Optic-Electric being potential beneficiaries [4][15]

"反内卷"政策对市场影响几何？ 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（7 月第 1 周）》2025-07-05 2、《如何看待科技金融强势反弹？》 2025-06-29 3、《A H 股市场周度观察（6 月第 4 周）》2025-06-29 报告摘要 一、"反内卷"政策对市场影响几何？ 相关报告 中央财经委会议发声"反内卷"，市场相应板块涨势显著。7 月 1 日召开的中央财经 委员会第六次会议，把"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依 规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"写进 了会议纪要，这一政策信号释放出国家对"内卷"现象的高度重视，尤其是在部分 产能过剩行业中。随后，光伏、水泥等行业相继发声，通过减产、优化产业结构调 整等措施缓解行业"内卷式"竞争，迅速形成了"反内卷"合力。7 月 2 日，A ...