T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) is one of the best QQQ stocks to buy according to Wall Street analysts. On November 21, Oppenheimer downgraded T-Mobile to Perform from Outperform, while removing the firm’s $300 price target on the shares. Oppenheimer suspects that T-Mobile will struggle to exceed subscriber and free cash flow estimates, given its decade of exceptional market share gains and margin expansion. The firm forecasts that overall industry subscriber growth is slowing, which will heighten competiti ...

T-Mobile US FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: T-Mobile US (NasdaqGS: TMUS) - **Event**: FY Conference held on November 18, 2025 Key Points Leadership Transition - The recent CEO transition to Srini Gopalan is viewed positively, with expectations for continued success under his leadership [3][5] - Gopalan has been with T-Mobile for over a decade and is familiar with the company's strategy [3] Strategic Priorities - Three main priorities under Gopalan: 1. Extend network leadership and improve customer perception of the network [4] 2. Enhance customer experience through digitalization [4] 3. Achieve success in broadband services [4] Q4 Promotional Activity - Q4 is expected to be competitive with promotional offers like "four for $100" [6][9] - The company anticipates strong performance, revising its post-paid phone net guidance to 3.3 million for the year [10] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment remains vibrant, with no immediate concerns about competitors' actions [10] - T-Mobile's post-paid phone churn is reported as the lowest in the industry [18] Fiber and Mobile Convergence - T-Mobile does not see itself as a major fiber provider but is the fifth largest internet service provider in the U.S. with nearly 9 million broadband customers [20][21] - The company aims for 12 million broadband customers by 2028, focusing on monetizing its 5G broadband product [21][22] Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) - T-Mobile has seen significant growth in fixed wireless access, with over 500,000 new customers in Q3 [29] - The majority of customers are coming from cable providers, indicating a strong competitive position [30] Customer Segmentation - T-Mobile views fiber and fixed wireless as complementary products, targeting different customer segments [32] Post-Paid Phone Growth Outlook - The company remains optimistic about post-paid phone growth despite industry concerns about a slowdown [34] - T-Mobile is focused on executing its plan and delivering value to shareholders [36] Network Leadership - T-Mobile has been recognized for having the best overall network, with ongoing efforts to close the perception gap among potential customers [37][42] - The company aims to attract customers from competitors by emphasizing its network quality [42] Rural Expansion and UScellular Integration - T-Mobile is focused on becoming a market leader in rural areas, with a current household share of over 20% [48] - The integration of UScellular is progressing well, with plans to unify operations under the T-Mobile brand [50] T-Life Initiative - T-Mobile's T-Life app has seen significant engagement, with 85 million downloads and two-thirds of upgrades occurring through the platform [55][56] - The company aims to improve customer experience and operational efficiency through T-Life [58] Satellite Connectivity - T-Mobile's partnership with Starlink for satellite connectivity is seen as a complement to its terrestrial network, particularly in remote areas [60][62] Additional Insights - T-Mobile's focus on customer experience and digital transformation is expected to drive future growth and operational efficiencies [59] - The company is committed to maintaining its competitive edge through continuous investment in network quality and customer engagement strategies [43][44]

Core Insights - T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) reported strong third-quarter 2025 results, exceeding both revenue and earnings estimates, driven by significant postpaid customer growth [1][10] Financial Performance - Net income for Q3 was $2.71 billion or $2.41 per share, a decrease from $3.05 billion or $2.61 per share in the same quarter last year, reflecting an 11.3% year-over-year decline due to increased operating and interest expenses [2] - Total revenues reached $21.95 billion, up from $20.16 billion year-over-year, surpassing the consensus estimate of $21.78 billion [3] - Total service revenues increased to $18.3 billion from $16.7 billion in the prior year, with a 9.1% year-over-year growth primarily driven by postpaid services [4] Customer Growth and Churn - T-Mobile added 2.3 million postpaid net customers and 396,000 postpaid net accounts during the quarter, with a postpaid phone churn rate of 0.89% [5] - Postpaid average revenues per account rose to $149.44 from $145.60 year-over-year [5] Segment Performance - Net sales from prepaid services were $2.62 billion, down from $2.71 billion in the previous year, with a prepaid net customer addition of 43,000 and a churn rate of 2.77% [6] - Equipment revenues increased to $3.46 billion from $3.2 billion year-over-year, attributed to a higher average revenue per device sold [7] Operating Expenses and EBITDA - Total operating expenses rose to $17.42 billion from $15.36 billion in the prior year, leading to a decline in operating income to $4.5 billion from $4.7 billion [8] - Core adjusted EBITDA was $8.68 billion, up from $8.24 billion a year ago, supported by strong service revenue growth [8] Cash Flow and Liquidity - T-Mobile generated $7.45 billion in cash from operating activities, compared to $6.13 billion in the prior year, while adjusted free cash flow was $4.81 billion, down from $5.16 billion [11] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had $3.31 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $76.36 billion in long-term debt [11] Future Outlook - T-Mobile has raised its 2025 guidance, now expecting postpaid net customer additions between 7.2 million and 7.4 million, and core adjusted EBITDA in the range of $33.7 billion to $33.9 billion [12]

Core Insights - T-Mobile US reported Q3 earnings that fell short of consensus estimates, with adjusted earnings at $2.41 per share, a 7% decline year-over-year, while revenue increased by 4% to $21.95 billion [2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share decreased to $2.41, missing the expected $2.47, while revenue rose to $21.95 billion, slightly above the forecast of $21.91 billion [2] - An impairment expense impacted earnings by 18 cents per share [2] Subscriber Growth - T-Mobile added over one million postpaid phone subscribers, exceeding estimates of 841,000, and outpacing AT&T's addition of 405,000 subscribers [3] - The company also gained 506,000 wireless high-speed internet subscribers, bringing its total 5G broadband customers to 7.955 million as of September 30 [3] Stock Market Reaction - T-Mobile's stock fell 0.3% to $226.82 in early trading following the earnings report, despite a 3% increase in shares leading up to the report [4] - The stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of D, indicating institutional selling over the past 13 weeks [4] Technical Ratings - T-Mobile has an IBD Composite Rating of 57 out of a possible 99, reflecting a mix of fundamental and technical metrics [5]

Core Insights - The telecommunications industry in the United States is dominated by three major players: AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile, collectively known as the "Big Three" [1] AT&T - AT&T reported Q2 financials on July 23, beating sales estimates by over $400 million and surpassing adjusted EPS forecasts by 1 cent, resulting in a share price increase of over 1% [1][4] - The company added 401,000 net postpaid cell phone subscribers, a 4% decrease from the previous year but better than expected [2] - AT&T's broadband business added approximately 243,000 fiber optic customers and 203,000 AT&T Internet Air customers, with fiber revenues growing by nearly 19% [2] - The percentage of "converged customers" increased to just under 41%, indicating progress in cross-selling services [3] - AT&T anticipates $6.5 billion to $8 billion in cash tax savings through 2027 due to the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) [4] Verizon - Verizon posted Q2 results on July 21, beating expectations on revenue and adjusted EPS, and slightly raised its full-year guidance [6] - Shares closed up 4% following the results, but the company experienced a net loss of 9,000 postpaid cell phone customers, contrary to Wall Street expectations [7] - Verizon's broadband business added 293,000 net customers, down from 391,000 a year ago, indicating a solid quarter despite the postpaid losses [8] T-Mobile - T-Mobile reported Q2 results on July 23, slightly beating sales growth estimates and achieving a 14% increase in adjusted EPS to $2.84, surpassing the anticipated 8% rise [10] - The company added 830,000 net postpaid cell phone customers, marking a record for Q2, and achieved a total of 1.7 million net postpaid adds, another Q2 record [12] - T-Mobile's revenue per account (ARPA) increased by 5%, the highest growth rate in eight years, and it expects $1.5 billion in OBBB-related cash tax benefits in 2026 [13] - Overall, T-Mobile had the strongest performance among the three companies, leading to a price target increase from Morgan Stanley from $265 to $285, implying a 17% upside [15]

Core Viewpoint - T-Mobile US is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its subscription-based business model, which allows for accurate financial forecasting and reduced stock price volatility amidst market fluctuations [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - T-Mobile US has demonstrated significant growth, with a net addition of 454,000 5G broadband subscribers, enhancing its market share in wireless technology [7]. - The company reported a free cash flow of $4.6 billion, with an industry-leading margin of 26%, which supports reinvestment in expansion initiatives and shareholder benefits [8][9]. - Over the past 12 months, T-Mobile's stock has rallied by up to 41.3%, trading at 90% of its 52-week high levels, indicating strong market performance [9]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Analysts have responded positively to T-Mobile's earnings, with Morgan Stanley reiterating an Overweight rating and raising the price target to $285 per share [10]. - The 12-month stock price forecast for T-Mobile is $256.31, representing a potential upside of 5.24%, with a moderate buy rating based on 25 analyst ratings [11]. - The stock's current P/E ratio stands at 23.3x, significantly higher than the wireless industry average of 10.4x, reflecting investor confidence in T-Mobile's ability to outperform its peers [14]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Institutional investors, such as Mirae Asset Global Investments, have increased their stake in T-Mobile by 6.1%, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth potential [13]. - The market's willingness to assign a higher valuation to T-Mobile suggests that investors believe in its long-term performance and competitive advantage in the industry [14].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Postpaid service revenues grew by 9% year over year, accelerating from Q1, while total service revenues increased by 6%, significantly outpacing closest competitors [19][24] - Core adjusted EBITDA growth was 6% year over year, with adjusted free cash flow reaching $4.6 billion, setting a new Q2 record and translating to an industry-leading adjusted free cash flow conversion from service revenues of 26% [19][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The business group achieved record growth, leading the industry in net additions, with postpaid account nets accelerating year over year [5][7] - The launch of new rate plans in April resulted in a 5% increase in ARPA, the highest growth in eight years, with customers increasingly selecting premium tiers [7][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - T-Mobile's postpaid share of households grew across all cohorts within the top 100 markets, as well as in smaller markets and rural areas [6][19] - The company reported leading the broadband industry in net additions for the fourteenth consecutive quarter, with significant growth in both speeds and usage [14][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - T-Mobile announced a multiyear partnership with Cable to enhance mobile service offerings to small and mid-market businesses, aiming for incremental revenue growth in underexposed areas [8][20] - The company is focused on expanding its network capabilities, with plans to add nearly 4,000 sites this year, enhancing coverage in smaller markets and rural areas [11][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the competitive environment, noting that T-Mobile thrives in dynamic conditions and continues to see robust customer growth despite increased churn [6][39] - The company anticipates a decrease in churn in Q3, with expectations for strong postpaid ARPA growth and service revenue growth of at least 6% for the full year [24][39] Other Important Information - T-Mobile is set to close its joint venture acquisition of MetroNet, which is expected to enhance its fiber offerings and customer base [26][100] - The company reached an agreement to divest its 800 megahertz licenses for $2.9 billion, which is anticipated to generate approximately $850 million in incremental income taxes [29][102] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current market environment and churn expectations? - Management noted that the competitive market is dynamic, and while churn increased in Q2, it is expected to decrease in Q3, remaining flat to slightly up year over year [39][40] Question: Can you provide more details on fiber growth expectations? - The company expects to achieve 100,000 fiber net additions this year, with growth driven by joint ventures and wholesale markets [41][42] Question: How does T-Mobile plan to improve network perception? - Management indicated that advertising and customer experience will play significant roles in improving network perception, with a focus on maintaining network leadership [68][70] Question: What is the strategy behind the partnership with cable operators? - The partnership targets small and mid-market businesses, where T-Mobile has limited exposure, and is expected to generate incremental revenue without entering the consumer market [60][61] Question: What is the current market share in rural areas? - T-Mobile has surpassed a 20% share of households in smaller markets and continues to see growth opportunities, especially with the addition of U.S. Cellular assets [110][113]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Postpaid service revenues grew 9% year over year, an acceleration from Q1, while total service revenues grew 6%, significantly outpacing closest competitors [18] - Adjusted free cash flow reached $4.6 billion, setting a new Q2 record, with an industry-leading adjusted free cash flow conversion from service revenues of 26% [18] - Core adjusted EBITDA growth was 6% year over year, with full-year expectations for core adjusted EBITDA set between $33.3 billion and $33.7 billion [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The business group led the industry in net additions, with postpaid account nets accelerating year over year [6] - The company achieved its highest ever business 5G broadband net additions, continuing to lead the overall broadband industry in net additions for the fourteenth consecutive quarter [13] - ARPA (Average Revenue Per Account) grew over 5%, marking the highest growth in eight years, with customers increasingly selecting premium rate plans [6][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company surpassed 20% share of households in smaller markets and rural areas, achieving its goal set for 2025 [108] - The competitive environment remains dynamic, with the company benefiting from increased customer speeds and lower costs in real terms over the past few years [35] - The company is focused on expanding its network in smaller markets and rural areas, with plans to increase site coverage significantly through acquisitions and new builds [12][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a multiyear partnership with Cable to enhance mobile service offerings to small and mid-market businesses, aiming for incremental growth in an area with previously low exposure [7] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a competitive edge through network leadership and customer experience, with ongoing investments in infrastructure and technology [9][10] - The company is committed to digital transformation, with significant progress in customer engagement through its app, which has over 75 million installs [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a competitive environment, highlighting the unique value proposition of best network, best value, and best experiences [19] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in service revenues and customer additions, with expectations for postpaid net additions raised to between 6.1 million and 6.4 million for the year [22] - Management noted the potential for significant growth in the broadband sector, particularly through fiber investments and partnerships [97] Other Important Information - The company is set to close the acquisition of MetroNet, which is expected to enhance its fiber capabilities and customer base [25][99] - A recent agreement to divest its 800 megahertz licenses is anticipated to generate approximately $2.9 billion in cash, with additional potential upside [27] - The company expects a $1.5 billion benefit to cash taxes in 2026 from recent legislation, which will be allocated thoughtfully [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for churn in the second half and the competitive environment? - Management indicated that while churn increased in Q2 due to rate plan optimizations, they expect it to decrease in Q3 and remain flat to slightly up year over year [36][37] Question: Can you provide more details on fiber growth and potential inorganic opportunities? - Management confirmed that the fiber business is expected to add 100,000 net additions this year, with ongoing evaluations for inorganic growth opportunities [39][40] Question: How does the company plan to improve network perception among prospective customers? - Management acknowledged that while current customers recognize the network's quality, efforts will focus on advertising and customer experience to enhance perception among prospective customers [62][66] Question: What is the current market share in rural areas and future expectations? - Management reported surpassing 20% market share in rural areas and expressed optimism for further growth, especially with the integration of U.S. Cellular assets [108][112] Question: How will the $1.5 billion tax benefit be utilized? - Management stated that the capital will be deployed thoughtfully, considering various options such as M&A, buybacks, or network investments [106]

Financial Performance - T-Mobile reported quarterly earnings of $2.84 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $2.68 [1] - Quarterly revenue reached $21.13 billion, surpassing the Street estimate of $20.98 billion and increasing from $19.77 billion in the same period last year [1] Customer Growth - T-Mobile achieved postpaid net customer additions of 1.7 million and postpaid phone net customer additions of 830,000 [5] - The company reported postpaid net account additions of 318,000, representing a 6% year-over-year increase, the best in the industry [5] - 5G broadband net customer additions were 454,000, up 12% year-over-year [5] Service Revenue - Service revenues totaled $17.4 billion, growing 6% year-over-year [5] - Postpaid service revenues amounted to $14.1 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [5] Future Outlook - T-Mobile revised its fiscal 2025 postpaid net customer additions guidance to between 6.1 million and 6.4 million, up from the previous estimate of 5.5 million to 6 million [4] - The updated guidance includes 2.95 million to 3.1 million postpaid phone net customer additions and approximately 100,000 fiber net customer additions [4] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, T-Mobile's stock rose by 5.16% to $246 in extended trading [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - T-Mobile US reported a strong quarter with postpaid service revenues growing 8% year over year and overall service revenues increasing by 5%, which is more than triple the growth rate of the next closest competitor [29][30] - Core adjusted EBITDA also grew 8% year over year, double the average of the wireless peer group [29] - Adjusted free cash flow reached $4.4 billion, a new Q1 record, translating to an industry-leading adjusted free cash flow conversion from service revenues of 26% [30][36] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved a record for total postpaid net additions in Q1, with 1.3 million total postpaid net additions and leading in overall gross adds across every postpaid category [11][67] - Postpaid ARPA grew nearly 4%, marking the highest Q1 growth in eight years, with 60% of lines on new accounts loading onto premium plans [14][29] - In broadband, T-Mobile US led the industry with 424,000 net additions in 5G broadband, achieving the lowest churn ever and the highest Q1 ARPU growth [16][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - T-Mobile US continued to grow its share of households across the top 100 markets, not just in smaller markets and rural areas [12] - The company reported strong momentum in the T-Mobile US for Business segment, leading the industry in both total postpaid and postpaid phone net additions [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on delivering thoughtful, profitable, and durable growth, leveraging its best network and digital capabilities to enhance customer experience [31][48] - T-Mobile US is set to officially launch T Fiber later this quarter, following the completion of the Lumos transaction, aiming to expand broadband choices for more Americans [18][19] - The company is also innovating with T Satellite, which aims to provide seamless connectivity for users, and is priced competitively to attract customers from competitors [25][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to maintain growth despite macroeconomic uncertainties, noting that customer acceptance of price increases has been strong [61][62] - The management team emphasized that the competitive landscape remains intense but highlighted that overall industry cash flows are significantly higher than in previous years, indicating a healthy market [64][65] - The company expects to deliver total postpaid net customer additions of between 5.5 million and 6 million for the year, with an increase in postpaid ARPA growth expectations to at least 3.5% [34][35] Other Important Information - The company is actively monitoring the impact of potential tariffs on handsets, indicating that customers may bear the cost, which could affect upgrade rates [128][129] - T-Mobile US is seeing stability in its prepaid business, with nearly 25.5 million prepaid customers and a reduction in churn year over year [103][104] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the biggest opportunity ahead for T-Mobile US? - Management highlighted the opportunity to combine the company's strong culture with its best network and digital capabilities to enhance customer service [48] Question: Can you provide more details on T Fiber and its go-to-market strategy? - The company plans to leverage its existing customer base and retail distribution to drive T Fiber's growth, especially targeting customers on the fixed wireless waitlist [52] Question: How is the company managing churn in light of price increases? - Management noted that the price increases have been well-received, and churn is expected to be temporary as customers adjust to new pricing [62] Question: What is the outlook for broadband additions and fiber growth? - Management expressed confidence in maintaining high-speed Internet fixed wireless additions above 400,000 and anticipates strong growth from fiber once the MetroNet transaction closes [112][119] Question: How is the company addressing potential tariffs on handsets? - Management indicated that any tariff impacts would likely be passed on to customers, potentially slowing upgrade rates, but currently, no material impact is anticipated [128][130]