ADC/XDC CRDMO服务
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药明合联(02268):2025年秋季策略会速递:需求高增态势延续,产能扩张稳步推进
HTSC· 2025-08-28 09:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (2268 HK) with a target price of HKD 82.24 [7][12] Core Insights - The demand for ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) continues to grow, with the company experiencing significant order increases and steady capacity expansion [1][2] - WuXi AppTec is reaffirmed as a leader in the global ADC/XDC CRDMO (Contract Research, Development, and Manufacturing Organization) sector, with strong upward momentum in performance [1][7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.701 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 733 million, up nearly 70% [2] - The overseas revenue contribution reached 82%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The company's market share in the global ADC CRDMO market rose from 9.9% in 2022 to 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [2] Industry Dynamics - The ADC/XDC sector shows strong long-term growth potential, with four ADC products approved for market from Q4 2024 to H1 2025, and many more expected in the next 3-5 years [2] - There are approximately 2,200 candidate conjugated drugs globally, with 21% being new ADCs, indicating a robust pipeline for future development [2] Client Expansion and Orders - In H1 2025, the company signed 37 new iCMC contracts, a historical high for the period, with expectations for the total number of new projects in 2025 to exceed the previous two years [3] - The backlog of orders reached USD 1.329 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, with North America leading in new contracts [3] - The company added 64 new clients in H1 2025, maintaining active collaborations with 13 of the top 20 multinational corporations, contributing approximately 33% of revenue [3] Capacity Expansion and Operational Efficiency - WuXi AppTec is set to launch new production facilities in Wuxi and Singapore, with a planned capital expenditure exceeding RMB 7 billion by 2029 [4] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.1%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement in 2025 [4] - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 was 27.1%, reflecting a positive trend amid company growth [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.72 billion, RMB 2.37 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 34% [5] - The target price is based on a PEG ratio of 1.59x, consistent with comparable company expectations [5][12]