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水滴(WDH):2025年第二季度运营效率提升
国泰君安国际· 2025-09-11 03:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Waterdrop (WDH US) is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of US$2.35, revised from the previous target price of US$1.80 [1]. Core Insights - Waterdrop's revenue for Q2 2025 was 2.6% below expectations, but net profit significantly exceeded expectations by RMB 45.7 million, attributed to improved operational efficiency [6]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 346 million (+9.9%), RMB 504 million (+10.0%), and RMB 629 million (+8.3%) respectively [6]. - The strong financial performance in Q2 2025 saw a net profit increase of 58.7% year-on-year to RMB 140.2 million, driven by a substantial rise in insurance brokerage revenue, which grew by 28.7% to RMB 739 million [6]. - The report emphasizes a user-centric strategy and the implementation of AI-enhanced services as key growth drivers, with a focus on the synergy between insurance and healthcare [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: Revenue of RMB 2,631 million, Net Profit of RMB 164 million - 2024A: Revenue of RMB 2,751 million, Net Profit of RMB 330 million - 2025F: Revenue of RMB 3,325 million, Net Profit of RMB 346 million - 2026F: Revenue of RMB 3,897 million, Net Profit of RMB 504 million - 2027F: Revenue of RMB 4,250 million, Net Profit of RMB 629 million [5][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 0.044 - 2024A: RMB 0.095 - 2025F: RMB 0.101 - 2026F: RMB 0.149 - 2027F: RMB 0.185 [5][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - 2025F PER: 131.3 - 2026F PER: 89.0 - 2027F PER: 71.7 [5][10]. Market Performance - The stock price performance over the past year shows an absolute change of 78.3%, with a 30.1% increase over the last three months [4]. - The average share price for the last year was US$1.3, with a current price of US$1.860 [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching a real-time AI underwriting assistant for advisors and plans to expand this to industry partners later this year, reflecting its commitment to growth through user acquisition, product iteration, and AI integration [6].