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凯文教育(002659):招生良好拐点已现,培育第二增长曲线
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-28 07:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its overall good enrollment and operational turning point [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a stable revenue growth with a significant turnaround, achieving a revenue of 250 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.82% [1][2]. - The partnership with Zhihui Huazhang to establish a joint venture, Qizhi Wenhua, aims to develop AI intelligent products, positioning the company to capture opportunities in the AI+education sector [3]. - The financial outlook has been adjusted downward due to lower-than-expected revenue in the third quarter, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 being 368 million, 415 million, and 465 million yuan respectively [4][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a net profit of approximately 3 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. - The operating cash flow is strong, with cash received from sales and services amounting to 293 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.03% [2]. - The company’s debt ratio is relatively low at 28.06%, with a significant reduction in interest-bearing debt, which supports improved profitability [2]. Growth Potential - The company is experiencing a positive trend in student enrollment, particularly in its Haidian and Chaoyang campuses, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 [1]. - The establishment of the joint venture with Zhihui Huazhang is anticipated to enhance the company's growth trajectory by leveraging AI technology in education [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.03 yuan, with subsequent years showing significant growth potential, reaching 0.17 yuan by 2027 [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 195, 72, and 35 respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as profitability increases [4].