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KEEP(3650.HK):利润扭亏为盈 全面聚焦AI战略
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-28 12:01
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 820 million yuan for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 20.8%, but achieved a non-IFRS net profit of 10 million yuan, indicating a return to profitability driven by improved gross margins in consumer goods and disciplined cost control measures [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue for 1H25 decreased by 20.8% to 820 million yuan, with proprietary brand sports products revenue down 20.9% to 400 million yuan, while the gross margin for this segment improved by 3.3 percentage points to 34.8% due to a focus on high-potential categories [2]. - Online membership and paid content revenue fell by 22.9% to 340 million yuan, attributed to a decline in online event revenue, but the gross margin for this segment increased by 3.4 percentage points to 71.3% due to a higher proportion of subscription revenue [2]. - The overall gross margin for 1H25 was 52.2%, up 6.2 percentage points, primarily due to ongoing product mix optimization and cost reduction initiatives [2]. User Engagement and AI Development - The average monthly active users for 1H25 decreased by 24.2% to 22.49 million, with the average revenue per user increasing by 0.3 yuan to 6.1 yuan, and the average monthly subscription members at 2.79 million, reflecting a membership penetration rate of 12.4% [2]. - The company is transitioning from a content platform to an AI-driven model, achieving three major advancements in 1H25, including the completion of multi-agent MAS infrastructure and continuous iteration of the AI Coach feature [3]. - As of the end of July, the AI core daily active users exceeded 150,000, with plans to reach 1 million by 2025, and the AI Coach's dietary tracking feature has been adopted by one-third of AI interaction users, contributing to a retention rate of 79% [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted downwards by 15.4%, 7.2%, and 1.4% to 1.83 billion, 2.11 billion, and 2.35 billion yuan, respectively, due to the streamlining of non-core low-efficiency businesses [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 60 million, 100 million, and 160 million yuan, respectively, driven by improved gross margins and ongoing cost reduction efforts [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 8.82 HKD, reflecting a price-to-sales ratio of 2.3x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the average of comparable companies, attributed to the ongoing business transformation [4].