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高盛:中国互联网-2025 年 618 购物节全景亮点、五大核心观察及主流平台 GMV 增长趋同现象
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-23 02:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on JD and Kuaishou, while also maintaining "Buy" on Meituan, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo, with a "Neutral" rating on VIPS [14]. Core Insights - The China eCommerce industry experienced approximately 10-11% gross GMV growth during the 2025 618 shopping festival, supported by a 15% year-over-year increase in parcel volume [1][2]. - The growth was driven by national subsidies on electronics and appliances, with competition normalizing across platforms [2]. - JD emerged as the fastest-growing shelf-based incumbent with an estimated GMV growth in the mid-teens percentage year-over-year, significantly increasing its transacting users by 100% [3][9]. - There is a notable shift towards on-demand eCommerce, with platforms like Meituan and JD focusing on instant retail rather than live-streaming eCommerce [10]. - Generative AI tools have proliferated, enhancing merchant efficiency and conversion rates during the festival [13]. Summary by Sections Broader Picture of the Festival - The overall GMV growth for the industry was estimated at 10-11%, with parcel volume growth at 15% year-over-year during the festival period [1][2]. - The narrowing gap between GMV and parcel volume growth indicates a lower return rate and fewer refunds without return orders [2]. eCommerce Platform Strategy During 618 Shopping Festival - Platforms focused on simplifying promotional activities and supporting merchants to lower operational costs [11][47]. - JD's innovative food delivery model and Meituan's significant order volume growth highlight the competitive landscape shift [10][11]. Engagement Data - The average daily active users (DAU) among top eCommerce platforms increased, with JD experiencing a historical high in DAU during the festival [50][53]. - Time spent on eCommerce apps increased by 10% year-over-year in May 2025, with JD and Pinduoduo showing significant growth [51]. Key Strategies and Merchant Support Measures - Various platforms implemented measures to support merchants, including commission rebates and reduced operational costs [11][47]. - Douyin introduced multiple merchant support policies, saving merchants a total of Rmb11 billion from January to May [11].