Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the aluminum industry but provides insights into demand trends and expectations for growth in specific sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - Aluminum demand in the solar power industry is expected to increase by 5-8% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, despite a recent decline in demand since mid-May [1][4]. - Overall aluminum demand in China is projected to grow by 3-4% YoY in 2025, with a weaker growth forecast for the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. - The demand for aluminum building profiles is anticipated to decrease by 8-10% YoY in 2025, showing a slight improvement from a 10% YoY decrease in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production - The weekly semi-aluminum products output was approximately 610kt in early July 2025, reflecting a 7.5% YoY increase, while the aluminum profile output was around 190kt, down 6% YoY [2]. - The weekly aluminum foil sheet output was about 370kt, showing a slight decline of 1% YoY [2]. Demand Trends - The aluminum demand from the solar power industry is primarily for industrial profiles and foil sheets, with a noted decrease in demand since mid-May, which has slowed into July [1][4]. - The apparent consumption of aluminum is expected to remain weak in July but may rebound in September and October, with potential growth in the automotive and electricity sectors [3]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels for aluminum profile mills are around 520kt, which is a 20% decrease YoY, with raw materials and finished goods inventories down 18% and 21% YoY, respectively [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Aluminum Products Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum products industry in China, particularly post-Chinese New Year (CNY) demand recovery trends [1][5]. Core Insights - **Demand Recovery**: There is an expectation of increasing demand from the solar power industry, which is anticipated to be a significant driver for aluminum consumption in the next 2-3 months [1][5]. - **Processing Fees Impact**: Currently low processing fees are discouraging aluminum profile producers from fulfilling orders from the solar power sector [1][5]. - **Raw Material Output**: Weekly output of aluminum products has recovered to 610,000 tons (kt) from 490kt during the CNY week, indicating a positive trend in production [2]. - **Inventory Levels**: Finished goods inventory has decreased to 530kt from 850kt, suggesting improved demand and reduced accumulation during CNY [2]. Product-Specific Insights - **Aluminum Profiles**: Strong orders are noted from the automotive, power, and transportation sectors, indicating robust industrial demand [4]. - **Aluminum Foil Sheets**: Demand recovery is better than expected, driven by strong automotive demand, increased export demand month-over-month in March, and seasonal improvements in the air conditioning sector [3][4]. - **Building Materials**: Demand for aluminum products in building materials is projected to decline by 5.4-5.5% year-over-year in 2025, a slight improvement from a 6% decline in 2024 [8]. Additional Considerations - **Seasonal Demand**: The peak season for aluminum foil sheet demand is expected to continue from March to April, particularly in the home appliances sector [4]. - **Weakness in Building Materials**: Despite some recovery in other sectors, demand from building materials remains weak, which could impact overall aluminum consumption [4]. Conclusion - The aluminum products industry in China is showing signs of recovery post-CNY, with specific sectors like solar power and automotive driving demand. However, challenges remain in the building materials segment, and the current low processing fees are affecting order fulfillment from certain industries. The overall outlook for aluminum consumption appears cautiously optimistic for the upcoming months [1][5][8].