Issue Brief Physical AI A Primer for Policymakers on AI-Robotics Convergence Author John VerWey February 2026 Executive Summary algorithms and software, and scalable manufacturing requires large amounts of patient capital. In addition, much of the supply chain for robotics components is commoditized, and the relatively slim margins dissuade innovative startups from competing with established incumbents. Adding to these challenges, each robotics company is pursuing its own unique approach, meaning the supply ...

Core Insights - Micropolis AI Robotics has signed a non-binding Letter of Intent with QSS Robotics to collaborate on the distribution and deployment of its technologies in Saudi Arabia [1][2][4] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The LOI establishes a framework for cooperation, including commercial representation, joint engagement with customers, and after-sales support [2][3] - QSS Robotics will act as Micropolis' commercial and technical partner, integrating solutions and supporting deployments in Saudi Arabia [3][4] Group 2: Pilot Projects - A pilot project is planned with the Ministry of Interior in Saudi Arabia, focusing on demonstrating Micropolis' autonomous patrol capabilities and AI-powered security analytics [5][6] - Upon successful completion of the pilot, QSS has expressed intent to procure up to 500 autonomous robots over two years, contingent on a definitive Supply Agreement [6] Group 3: Regional Technology Localization - The collaboration aligns with the objectives of the UAE and Saudi Arabia to localize advanced robotics and AI systems, aiming to create a sustainable operational footprint in the Kingdom [7] Group 4: Company Background - Micropolis specializes in the design and manufacturing of unmanned ground vehicles, AI systems, and smart infrastructure for various applications [8] - QSS Robotics focuses on delivering advanced robotics and automation solutions in Saudi Arabia, partnering with global innovators [9]

Core Insights - China's commitment to innovation is reshaping its economy, transitioning from a manufacturing hub to a center for technological advancement, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, AI, and robotics [2][3][6] - Despite the surge in high-tech innovation, China's economy faces significant challenges, including declining retail sales, a shrinking population, and a struggling property market [4][5][10] Industry Developments - XtalPi Holdings exemplifies China's shift towards innovation, utilizing AI to accelerate drug discovery and forming partnerships with major Western pharmaceutical companies [1][2] - China's R&D spending is increasing at nearly 9% annually, significantly outpacing the U.S. at 1.7%, with a record 70,160 international patents filed in 2024 [3][4] - The MSCI China index has risen by 43% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, indicating a strong recovery in the stock market driven by technological advancements [4][26] Economic Challenges - Despite advancements, China's economy is projected to grow only 3% to 4% annually in the coming years, a stark decline from previous growth rates of 6% to 8% [5][12] - The property sector, which previously accounted for about 25% of GDP, is expected to remain significantly diminished, potentially at only 40% of its original size [11][12] - Consumption remains low, with China accounting for only 12% of global consumption despite being responsible for 27% of global investment [12][13] Government Initiatives - Beijing is prioritizing sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, with substantial government investment projected at 600 billion to 700 billion yuan ($84 billion to $98 billion) for AI alone [7][15] - Recent policy shifts indicate a recognition of the need to boost domestic consumption, with plans for cash transfers and support for families [13][14] Global Implications - China's technological advancements pose a competitive threat to U.S. companies, reminiscent of past economic shifts that impacted global manufacturing [8][9] - The ongoing trade tensions and restrictions from the U.S. are accelerating China's push for self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI [18][22] - As Chinese companies expand globally, they are increasingly focusing on domestic suppliers, which may exacerbate trade tensions [21][22] Investment Opportunities - The current market dynamics suggest potential for a new bull market in China, with foreign investors encouraged to explore sectors like IT and advanced industrials [20][28] - Chinese stocks may become a more attractive option for domestic investors, especially if the government successfully stimulates economic growth and innovation [30]

Core Insights - Analog Devices' (ADI) Industrial segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by demand across various sectors including instrumentation, automation, healthcare, aerospace and defense, and energy management, with a year-over-year growth of 23% in Q3 fiscal 2025 [1][8] Group 1: Industrial Segment Growth - The Industrial segment showed robust growth across all subsectors and geographies, primarily driven by automatic test equipment, AI chip infrastructure, and record performance in aerospace and defense [2] - ADI's automation business also demonstrated double-digit growth, with potential to double by 2030 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADI's fiscal 2025 and 2026 revenues is projected to grow by 15% and 17.4%, respectively [4] Group 2: Robotics and Partnerships - ADI has partnered with Teradyne to enhance its presence in the robotics market, focusing on high-performing cobots and autonomous mobile robots for logistics [3] - Collaboration with NVIDIA is aimed at digital twin simulations and reference designs for advanced robotic systems [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - ADI competes with Texas Instruments (TXN) and STMicroelectronics (STM) in the Industrial segment, particularly in industrial signal chains, precision sensing, and power management [5] - In the robotics space, STMicroelectronics provides sensors and motor control ICs, while Texas Instruments focuses on low-power precision analog and sensing for medical applications [6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - ADI's shares have gained 14.9% year to date, outperforming the Semiconductor - Analog and Mixed industry's growth of 11.1% [7] - ADI trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 10.02X, which is higher than the industry's average of 7.57X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ADI's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 21.5% and 19.4%, respectively, with upward revisions in the past 30 days [11]

Rockwell Automation (ROK) 2025 Conference Summary Industry Overview - The conference focused on the automation industry, specifically Rockwell Automation's performance and outlook in the context of current market conditions and customer spending patterns [6][7][8]. Key Points and Arguments Demand Patterns - Customer spending shows resilience despite elevated uncertainty, with an uptick in demand for product offerings, indicating early-cycle fundamentals [7][10]. - Capital equipment demand remains weak, particularly for larger projects, due to ongoing uncertainty, impacting lifecycle services and configured orders [7][10][11]. - Project delays are primarily seen in the automotive and energy sectors, affecting capital-intensive projects [13]. Revenue Mix - Historically, about two-thirds of Rockwell's business is driven by capital expenditures (CapEx), with the remainder from maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) [15]. - There is a shift towards more greenfield projects, but brownfield upgrades still dominate the revenue mix [15][16]. - Demand for productivity and efficiency remains strong, with customers investing in autonomous mobile robots, software, and cybersecurity services [18]. Industry Segments - E-commerce and warehouse automation are strong verticals, with increased outlook for new fulfillment centers and upgrades to existing warehouses [22][23]. - Life sciences and process industries also show good performance, with a mix of greenfield and brownfield investments [25][26]. Tariff and Cost Impacts - The company faced a $70 million headwind from tariffs, with ongoing efforts to recover costs through pricing strategies [32][34]. - Price changes related to tariffs have generally been in the low to mid-single-digit range, with some higher impacts on specific product families [36][37]. Software Investments - Rockwell is investing in its software portfolio, focusing on scalable and flexible solutions for production design and automation [66][67]. - The company aims to enhance its competitive positioning through strategic acquisitions and development of cloud-native offerings [68][69]. Margin and Cost Management - The company is targeting a segment operating margin of 22-24% for Intelligent Devices, with ongoing cost reduction initiatives [55][57]. - Recent acquisitions, such as ClearPath and Cubic, are expected to improve margins over time, with ClearPath projected to break even in fiscal 2026 [71][73]. Asset-Light Model Shift - Rockwell is considering a shift towards a more asset-intensive model, potentially increasing CapEx spending from 2% to 3% of sales, driven by ROI considerations [81][84]. - The strategy includes bringing more production in-house to enhance margins and reduce reliance on external suppliers [84][85]. Additional Important Insights - The company is currently in a pause regarding new acquisitions to focus on integrating recent purchases and optimizing their contributions to the overall business [75][78]. - There is a recognition of the importance of rare earth elements in the supply chain, with potential risks if supply from China is disrupted [38][40]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Rockwell Automation conference, highlighting the company's strategic focus areas and market dynamics.