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Can We Use 2 Standard Deviation Implied Volatility When Portfolio Overwriting?
Thebluecollarinvestor· 2026-02-21 11:47
Core Insights - The article discusses the strategy of portfolio overwriting, which aims to generate additional income through option premiums while retaining underlying shares, with a focus on minimizing the risk of exercise to less than 1% [1]. Group 1: Standard Deviation and Implied Volatility - Standard deviation (SD) measures the average deviation of data points from the mean, which is crucial for understanding price movements in stocks [2]. - One standard deviation (1 SD) indicates that a stock's price is expected to move within a certain range 68% of the time, allowing traders to select strike prices based on their strategy goals [3]. - The application of 1 SD in portfolio overwriting involves selecting high strike prices to minimize the risk of exercise, estimated at approximately 16% [4]. Group 2: Application of 2 Standard Deviations - Two standard deviations (2 SD) double the range of 1 SD, indicating a stock is expected to move up or down significantly, with a 95% probability of staying within that range [7]. - For Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC), using 2 SD suggests selecting strike prices above $50.00, resulting in an exercise risk of approximately 2.5% without exit strategies [12]. Group 3: Real-life Example with Intel Corp. - Intel's at-the-money implied volatility (IV) was reported at 74%, with expected price movements calculated for both 1 SD and 2 SD scenarios [5][10]. - The $43.00 strike price (1 SD) offers a bid price of $1.37, while the $50.00 strike price (2 SD) has a bid price of $0.69, indicating potential returns based on the selected strikes [8][16]. - The expected returns for the $43.00 strike are 3.87% over 33 days, annualized at 42.81%, while the $50.00 strike shows a return of 1.95%, annualized at 21.56% [16].
How to Incorporate High Implied Volatility Stocks into Conservative Covered Call Portfolios + Alan Interviewed by The Options Industry Council
Thebluecollarinvestor· 2026-02-07 11:19
Core Insights - High implied volatility (IV) stocks and ETFs can enhance covered call portfolios by providing high premium yields, but they also carry downside risks [1][9] - The article discusses strategies to utilize high IV securities while maintaining a focus on capital preservation [1][9] Investment Strategy - The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is highlighted as a high IV ETF, trading at $49.43 on 9/22/2025, with the potential for in-the-money (ITM) covered calls to offer downside protection [2][5] - ITM covered calls can maximize returns as long as the stock price remains above the strike price [5][10] Option Analysis - The $49.00 near-the-money strike has an IV of 47%, which is significantly higher than the S&P 500, indicating a strong potential for returns [5][10] - Delta is a crucial metric in selecting ITM strikes, with a high Delta indicating a greater probability of the option expiring ITM [5][6] Trade Calculations - A deep ITM call strike at $42.00 shows a Delta of 90.6%, suggesting a 90.6% probability of expiring ITM, which aligns with the desired risk tolerance [10][11] - The breakeven price for the trade is calculated at $41.63, with a projected 26-day return of 0.88% and an annualized return of 12.37% [11] Risk Management - The downside protection from the time-value profit is estimated at 15.03%, making the trade appealing for those seeking a balance between risk and return [11]
Two Defensive 5-Day Cash-Secured Put Trades Start-to-Finish: Laddering Strikes
Thebluecollarinvestor· 2026-01-31 11:18
Core Insights - The article discusses the strategy of cash-secured put trades in volatile and bearish market conditions, using Celestica Inc. (CLS) as a case study to illustrate the process and calculations involved in such trades [1][12]. Trade Details - A real-life example of 5-day trades with CLS from September 8, 2025, to September 12, 2025, is provided, highlighting the entry and exit points of the trades [2]. - On September 8, 2025, CLS was trading at $250.77, with put strikes of $225.00 and $230.00 having bid prices of $0.90 and $1.37 respectively [6]. Performance Metrics - At contract expiration on September 12, 2025, CLS closed at $241.77, which was above both out-of-the-money (OTM) put strikes [6]. - The total time-value premium collected for the two 5-day contracts was $227.00, resulting in a total capital invested of $45,273.00 and a total cash-secured put return of 0.50%, which annualizes to 52% [9][8]. Risk Management - The article emphasizes that while significant returns can be generated through these trades, they are categorized as low-risk rather than no-risk [12]. - The use of multiple strikes with the same underlying security and expiration date is referred to as "laddering strikes," which helps in managing risk [12].