Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Taiwan ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate market**, particularly in relation to **ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) AI servers** and their suppliers, including **Unimicron**, **NYPCB**, and **Ibiden**. Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Growth Projections - The **2026/27 AI server ABF Total Addressable Market (TAM)** has been raised by **35%/55%**, reflecting a strong demand outlook for ASIC AI servers, with projected shipments of **3.4 million** and **4.7 million** units in **2026E/27E** respectively, compared to **5.6 million** and **7.1 million** for GPU AI chips [1][8] - The **average selling price (ASP)** for ASIC AI substrates is expected to be **US$180/US$220** in **2026E/27E**, while GPU AI substrates are projected at **US$143/US$183** [1][8] - The combined market share for Taiwan's ASIC AI substrate suppliers (Unimicron and NYPCB) is estimated to be **71%/65%/59%** for **2025E/26E/27E**, significantly higher than the **10%/19%/21%** for GPU AI server market share [9] Supplier Performance and Projections - **Unimicron** and **NYPCB** are expected to benefit the most from the improving demand outlook, with revenue contributions from AI servers projected to reach **16%** and **20%** respectively by **2027E**, up from previous estimates of **13%** and **12%** [1][4] - **Ibiden** is also anticipated to gain market share in the ASIC AI server substrate market due to its technology leadership and plans for **40% capacity expansion** from **2025-27** [2] Pricing and Supply Chain Dynamics - Prolonged lead times for high-end ABF substrates are expected due to **T-glass material shortages**, which could lead to higher pricing despite a low equipment utilization rate (UTR) forecast of **75%** for **2H25-1H26E** [3][39] - Price hikes for ABF substrates are anticipated to occur in **late September/early October**, coinciding with quarterly contract negotiations, but may not significantly impact earnings outlook for suppliers in **2H26** [3][40] - The overall ABF substrate market is projected to grow at an **18% CAGR** from **2025-27E**, driven primarily by AI server applications [38] Earnings Revisions and Target Price Adjustments - **Unimicron**'s earnings estimates for **2025E/26E/27E** have been raised by **1%/3%/3%**, reflecting higher expected demand for ASIC AI server substrates [51] - The target price for **Unimicron** has been increased to **NT$116** from **NT$110** [4][55] - **NYPCB**'s earnings estimates have been revised upwards by **96%/67%/32%** for **2025E/26E/27E**, with a new target price of **NT$125** [57][62] Long-term Outlook and Risks - The long-term outlook for high-end ABF substrate suppliers remains positive, driven by the overall AI server demand uptrend, with an **81% CAGR** expected from **2024-27E** [10] - Key risks include slower-than-expected recovery in PC demand, delays in ABF substrate upgrades, and challenges in qualifying new high-end capacities [66] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential conflict of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with the companies covered in the research [4] - The analysis suggests that while short-term oversupply may weigh on stock performance, the long-term demand growth for high-end substrates will support earnings [44]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Research on PCB, CCL, and Substrates Industry Overview - The report focuses on the PCB (Printed Circuit Board), CCL (Copper Clad Laminate), and substrates markets, particularly in the context of AI applications and supply chain dynamics [1][3]. Core Insights 1. **Tight Supply Chain for PCBs**: The PCB supply chain is expected to remain tight or face shortages due to rising specifications and modest capacity additions, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is not yet equipped to produce AI PCBs [3][8]. 2. **New Entrants in AI PCB Market**: There is potential for new suppliers to enter the AI supply chain, especially for major ASIC projects that require high layer count PCBs. Current leading GPU servers utilize HDIs but may revert to multi-layer PCB designs by 2026, which could exacerbate supply tightness [3][8]. 3. **Cooling Methods for ASICs**: Shipments for major ASIC servers are expected to rise in the second half of the year. Liquid-cooled motherboards are anticipated to start shipping in Q3, while air-cooled boards will remain dominant. This dual approach may mitigate the impact of design changes on CCL/PCB suppliers [3][8]. 4. **BT Substrate Price Trends**: The utilization rate (UTR) of BT substrates has increased to 80-90%, contrasting with sluggish performance in previous years. Price hikes are likely due to rising gold prices, although widespread price increases for BT substrates have not yet been observed [3][4][8]. 5. **Impact of Midplane PCB**: The introduction of midplane PCBs in future AI GPU servers is seen as a significant opportunity for the PCB/CCL industry, potentially creating a USD 1 billion annual market. However, the high capacity required for ultra-high layer count designs poses challenges [3][8]. 6. **Capex Expansion Expectations**: PCB and CCL manufacturers are expected to announce further capital expenditure expansions in the next six months due to sustainable supply tightness. China may become a focal point for these expansions, moving away from Southeast Asia [3][8]. Additional Considerations - **Substrate Expansion Outlook**: Substrate expansions are expected to be more subdued due to uncertainties in T-glass supply and modest UTR. The growth rate for ABF supply may fall below the current expectation of 7-8% per annum as some tier-2 suppliers consider suspending or disposing of tools [3][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report emphasizes the structural nature of the current supply shortages, driven by increasing board design complexity and the need for advanced materials [3][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the PCB, CCL, and substrates markets as discussed in the J.P. Morgan research report.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZDT and raises the target price (TP) to NT$140 from NT$130, maintains a "Neutral" rating on Unimicron and NYPCB with TP raised to NT$97 and NT$110 respectively, and maintains a "Sell" rating on Kinsus with a new TP of NT$70 from NT$63 [8][21][31]. Core Insights - The increase in BT substrate prices in early Q3 2025, driven by T-glass and gold price hikes, is expected to improve revenue trends for substrate makers, particularly Kinsus and NYPCB, with BT revenue exposure projected to exceed 25% of total revenue in 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a potential further pricing hike for high layer count ABF substrates in the coming months, which could enhance revenue and profitability outlook for substrate suppliers in the second half of 2025 [3][7]. - The T-glass shortage is expected to ease by the first half of 2026, which may stabilize pricing levels despite the current supply constraints [4][7]. Summary by Sections Pricing and Revenue Outlook - BT substrate prices have increased by 5%-20% in early Q3 2025 due to T-glass supply tightness and rising gold prices, which account for 30-40% of BT cost of goods sold (COGS) [1][2]. - The report expects improved profitability for BT substrates in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, despite potential unfavorable gross margin and operating profit margin conditions due to material cost hikes and currency appreciation [2][3]. Company-Specific Earnings Revisions - Unimicron's 2025 earnings estimate has been cut by 25% due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions, while revenue is expected to increase by 1% [17][19]. - NYPCB's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised up by 3%, 11%, and 7% respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on substrate pricing [23][25]. - Kinsus's 2025 earnings estimate has been reduced by 16% due to unfavorable FX conditions, but 2026 and 2027 estimates have been increased by 10% and 11% respectively [28][30]. - ZDT's earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 17%, 1%, and 1% respectively, primarily due to unfavorable FX conditions [33][35].