Core Insights - MicroStrategy's stock price closed at approximately $133 on February 13, experiencing an 8.85% increase in one day and a nearly 5% weekly gain, indicating resilience amid broader market uncertainty [1] - Despite the stock's rise, Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 2.2% during the same period, creating a rare gap between the two assets [1] Correlation and Price Prediction - Recent data indicates that MicroStrategy and Bitcoin are moving almost identically, with a 7-day rolling correlation reaching 0.98, suggesting that MicroStrategy's price trajectory may heavily depend on Bitcoin's movements going forward [2][3] - The high correlation level implies that price movements in one asset are likely to influence the other, which poses a risk given Bitcoin's recent weakness while MicroStrategy's stock has increased [4][3] Momentum Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing signs of hidden bearish divergence, indicating that while momentum appears strong, the underlying price structure of MicroStrategy remains weak [4][5] - The key price level to monitor is $133.88; if MicroStrategy's stock price remains below this level, the risk of correction persists, while a move above could weaken the bearish signal [6] Institutional vs. Retail Behavior - Despite bearish momentum signals, institutional investors are exhibiting different behavior, as indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) which has been trending higher since November 21, suggesting strong institutional buying support [7]

Core Viewpoint - Strategy, a major player in Bitcoin investment, faces potential removal from the Nasdaq 100 index due to concerns over its business model and share price performance [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Strategy, originally a software company (MicroStrategy), transitioned to Bitcoin investing in 2020 and reached a market capitalization peak of $128 billion earlier this year [2]. - The company reported a net profit of $2.78 billion for the three months ending September 30, a significant turnaround from a loss of $340.2 million a year earlier, primarily due to an accounting change that allowed it to recognize gains on Bitcoin holdings [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Concerns - Strategy's shares have declined by 65% from their 2024 peak and 36% year-to-date, contrasting with a 3.6% drop in Bitcoin this year [7]. - The company's market value has decreased to $52.7 billion, while its Bitcoin holdings are valued at over $61 billion [7]. Group 3: Nasdaq 100 Index Implications - The Nasdaq 100 index is undergoing an annual reshuffle, which could impact companies like Strategy that are sensitive to market capitalization changes [4][6]. - Analysts have raised questions about whether Strategy should be classified as a holding company or a cryptocurrency company, which could influence its inclusion in the index [4].

Core Viewpoint - Economist Henrik Zeberg warns that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock may face significant risks due to its heavy exposure to Bitcoin, potentially leading to a major shorting opportunity in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - Strategy's executive chairman, Michael Saylor, has been a strong proponent of Bitcoin, asserting that "the only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin," which has resulted in the stock surging approximately 3,500% over the past five years, significantly outperforming Bitcoin's 905% increase during the same period [3]. - The company currently holds 601,550 BTC at an average purchase price of $66,384, indicating a continued commitment to its Bitcoin strategy despite potential risks [9]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Short Interest - Short interest in Strategy stock has been rising, with short volume reaching 3.76 million shares on July 18, 2025, out of a total trading volume of 6.74 million, resulting in a short volume ratio of 55.7%, the highest in the past ten trading days [4][5]. - The stock has shown signs of weakness in the short term, closing down over 6% to $423.22 in the last trading session, although it has gained over 40% year-to-date [7].