Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2025 were $907 million, finishing near the midpoint of the guidance range [14] - Adjusted net income margin was 3.7%, exceeding the high end of the guidance [15] - GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.66, while adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.68 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased by 0.3%, with total sales of $651.4 million, up 1% from the prior year [15][6] - North Italia's total sales were $83.5 million, up 16% from the prior year, with comparable sales declining by 3% [15][12] - Flower Child's sales totaled $48.1 million, up 31% from the prior year, with comparable sales increasing by 7% [15][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annualized unit volumes for The Cheesecake Factory averaged over $12 million [6] - North Italia's annualized AUVs reached $7.3 million [11] - Flower Child's annualized AUVs were $4.6 million [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open as many as 25 new restaurants in 2025, including four Cheesecake Factory locations and six each of North Italia and Flower Child [20] - For 2026, the company expects to accelerate development with as many as 26 new restaurant openings [8][20] - The focus remains on delivering exceptional food, service, and hospitality while executing long-term growth strategies [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a softer macro and consumer environment but emphasized stable overall performance [6] - The company anticipates total revenues for Q4 2025 to be between $940 million and $955 million, representing a 1% step down from Q3 sales trends [18] - Management expressed confidence in navigating the dynamic macro environment and maintaining profitability [22] Other Important Information - The company recorded a pre-tax net expense of $0.8 million related to FRC acquisition-related expenses [16] - The Cheesecake Rewards program continues to show strong membership growth and positive member satisfaction [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the caution in the current consumer environment? - Management indicated that the caution is primarily due to a decline in traffic, with stable day parts and good performance from new menu items [24] Question: Can you provide the breakdown of comps for The Cheesecake Factory and North Italia? - For The Cheesecake Factory, pricing was about 4%, traffic was -2.5%, and mix was the difference. For North Italia, price was 4%, mix was -1%, and traffic was -6% [27] Question: What is the outlook for commodity inflation in Q4? - Commodity inflation was about flat in Q3, but is expected to be around 2% in Q4, primarily driven by beef prices [29] Question: How is the company planning to promote lower price point items? - Management plans to continue promoting bites and bowls through social media and marketing campaigns, leveraging the Cheesecake Rewards program [36] Question: Are there any changes in labor demand or supply? - Management reported steady applicant flow and strong retention, indicating no significant changes in labor demand or supply [89] Question: What are the expectations for the app launch? - The company is working on launching a rewards app in the first half of next year, aimed at enhancing customer engagement and experience [91]

Core Insights - The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 28, with a history of beating earnings estimates in the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 15.2% [1] Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 60 cents, reflecting a 3.5% increase from 58 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $912.9 million, indicating a 5.5% rise from the previous year's quarter [2] Factors Influencing Quarterly Results - The company's performance is expected to benefit from steady demand, disciplined cost management, and sustained brand relevance, with strategic menu innovations like "Bowls" and "Bites" contributing to comparable sales growth [3] - Engagement from the Cheesecake Rewards program is anticipated to enhance top-line performance, with total revenues projected between $905 million and $915 million [3] Revenue Contributions - Strong contributions from North Italia Restaurants and Other FRC are expected, with revenues predicted to rise 14.6% to $82.3 million and 34.3% to $90 million year-over-year, respectively [4] Profitability Outlook - Profitability is expected to remain healthy due to operational excellence, improved labor retention, and favorable commodity costs, with four-wall margins reaching 18.5% in the prior quarter [5] - The company aims to maintain margins within a long-term target range of 16% to 18% through efficiency and guest satisfaction [5] Cost Challenges - Modest wage inflation, higher medical costs, and increased pre-opening expenses may partially offset profitability gains, with labor expenses projected to rise 5.5% year-over-year to $328.2 million [6] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for Cheesecake Factory, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][9] - The expected Q3 EPS is $0.60 on revenues of $912.9 million, with menu enhancements and loyalty engagement likely aiding comparable sales growth [8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenues of $956 million for Q2 2025, exceeding expectations and marking a year-over-year increase [16][17] - Adjusted net income margin improved to 5.8%, reflecting operational excellence and strong sales trends [16][22] - Cheesecake Factory's comparable sales increased by 1.2%, while North Italia's sales rose by 20% and Flower Child's sales surged by 35% year-over-year [17][18][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cheesecake Factory restaurants achieved total sales of $683.3 million, up 1% from the previous year, with average weekly sales reaching record highs [17][5] - North Italia's annualized average unit volumes (AUVs) increased by 2% to $8 million, despite a 1% decline in comparable sales [12][13] - Flower Child's comparable sales increased by 4%, with average weekly sales of $91,400, leading to an annualized AUV of over $4.8 million [14][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Off-premise sales for Cheesecake Factory accounted for 21% of total sales, consistent with previous quarters [10] - The company opened eight new restaurants in Q2, including two Cheesecake Factory locations and three Flower Child locations, with plans to open up to 25 new restaurants in 2025 [7][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes culinary innovation, introducing 14 new dishes and a new cheesecake to maintain menu relevance without relying on discounting [6][10] - The focus on operational excellence and staff retention is seen as a key driver for improved guest satisfaction and profitability [9][35] - The company aims to continue expanding its restaurant footprint while maintaining high operational standards and guest experiences [24][86] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business, citing strong demand for unique dining experiences [7][24] - The operating environment is described as stable, with expectations for continued growth despite potential macroeconomic challenges [51][52] - The company anticipates total revenues for fiscal 2025 to be approximately $3.76 billion, with an adjusted net income margin of about 4.9% [22][23] Other Important Information - The Cheesecake Rewards program is performing well, with higher member engagement and satisfaction compared to non-members [11][94] - The company is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet, with total available liquidity of approximately $515.3 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Increase in net income margin for 2025 - Management confirmed that the increase is primarily driven by operational improvements and better-than-expected Q2 results [27][28] Question: Third quarter revenue outlook - The revenue outlook assumes stable comparable sales similar to Q2, with no significant changes anticipated [29] Question: Labor retention levels - Management reported that staff retention is at historically high levels, exceeding pre-pandemic rates, contributing to improved productivity and guest satisfaction [33][35] Question: Cheesecake Factory Q2 sales breakdown - The net effective pricing was about 4%, with traffic down 1.1% and mix contributing to the balance [37][38] Question: Customer response to new menu items - Management indicated positive customer response to new menu items, with marketing strategies in place to highlight these innovations [41][42] Question: Flower Child profitability and unit economics - Flower Child is experiencing strong performance with mature unit margins over 20%, and the company is optimistic about future growth [50][52] Question: North Italia performance and sales transfer - North Italia's performance is strong, with AUVs of $8 million, but some sales transfer is impacting comparable sales [59][60] Question: Menu pricing strategy - The company plans to take less pricing in the second half of the year, focusing on value-driven menu items [68][70] Question: Development pipeline for 2026 - Management anticipates opening more units than the 25 planned for 2025, with a strong pipeline in place [86][87]