Group 1: Mortgage Applications - US MBA mortgage applications increased by +7.1% for the week ending October 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising by +4.5% and the refinancing sub-index up by +9.3% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Stocks - Semiconductor stocks showed strength, particularly Nvidia, which rose by more than +2% following President Trump's openness to providing China access to Nvidia's Blackwell AI processor as part of a trade deal [2] - Other chipmakers such as Broadcom, Lam Research, and Applied Materials also saw gains of more than +3% [16] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes initially rallied, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100 reaching new all-time highs, supported by easing global trade tensions and potential tariff reductions on Chinese goods [3][4] - The S&P 500 Index closed unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by -0.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose by +0.41% [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Actions - The FOMC cut the federal funds target range by -25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of quantitative tightening effective December 1 [5] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed, with markets pricing in a 67% chance of another -25 basis point cut at the next FOMC meeting [6] Group 5: Trade Relations - A tentative trade agreement between the US and China was reached, which is expected to be officially announced at the upcoming summit between Presidents Trump and Xi [7] - The agreement includes China agreeing not to restrict the export of rare earth metals for at least one year and committing to purchase a substantial amount of US soybeans [7] Group 6: Earnings Reports - A significant number of S&P 500 companies are reporting earnings, with 84% of those reported so far beating forecasts, indicating a strong Q3 performance [8] - Notable companies reporting include Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, with Q3 profits expected to rise by +7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [8] Group 7: Company-Specific Performance - Teradyne's Q3 net revenue of $769.2 million exceeded expectations, leading to a +20% increase in its stock price [17] - Seagate Technology reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.61, above consensus, resulting in a +19% stock price increase [18] - Centene's unexpected Q3 adjusted EPS profit led to a +12% increase in its stock price, while Caterpillar's strong Q3 results also boosted its stock by +11% [19]

US MBA mortgage applications rose +7.1% in the week ended October 24, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +4.5% and the refinancing sub-index up +9.3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -7 bp to a 13-month low of 6.30% from 6.37% in the prior week.Strength in semiconductor stocks is also supportive for the broader market today, led by a +4% jump in Nvidia, after President Trump said he was open to providing China with access to Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processor as part of a trade deal. Chinese ...

Economic Outlook - The FOMC is not releasing a Summary of Economic Projections this week, meaning no updates on interest rate forecasts from Fed officials [1] - The Fed is expected to cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and may halt its quantitative tightening regime [2] - Markets are anticipating a 90% chance of another 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with an overall expectation of a 115 basis point cut by the end of 2026 [2] Market Performance - US stock indexes are reaching new all-time highs, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all climbing [4] - The S&P 500 Index is up by 0.32%, the Dow Jones by 0.40%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 0.47% [5] - Easing global trade tensions are contributing to stock gains, particularly following President Trump's comments on lowering tariffs on Chinese goods [4] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks are showing strength, led by a 4% increase in Nvidia, following news of potential access to Nvidia's AI processor for China [3][18] - Other chipmakers like Lam Research and Advanced Micro Devices are also seeing gains of over 3% [18] Trade Relations - A tentative trade agreement between the US and China is expected to be announced, which includes China agreeing not to restrict rare earth metal exports for at least one year [8] - The US and South Korea have finalized a trade deal involving $150 billion in shipbuilding investments in the US [4] Earnings Reports - This week is significant for earnings, with 173 S&P 500 companies reporting; 84% of those that have reported so far have beaten forecasts [9] - Notable companies reporting include Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon [9] - Q3 profits are expected to rise by 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [9] Company-Specific Movements - Teradyne's stock is up over 15% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $769.2 million, exceeding expectations [19] - Seagate Technology is also up more than 15% after reporting Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.61, above consensus [19] - Bloom Energy and Caterpillar are up more than 13% and 11% respectively, following strong earnings reports [20] Market Sentiment - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment, with estimates of 640,000 federal workers being furloughed [13] - The shutdown is delaying the release of key economic reports, which could affect market performance [13]

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA and IonQ are both significant players in the AI field, with NVIDIA's GPUs being essential for AI applications and IonQ's quantum computing systems promising advanced solutions [1] Group 1: NVIDIA - NVIDIA's stock has increased by 26.3% over the past year, driven by the indispensable role of its GPUs in AI applications [1] - The global GPU market is projected to grow from $101.54 billion in 2025 to $1,414.39 billion by 2034, with NVIDIA holding over 80% market share in discrete GPUs [2] - Data center revenues for NVIDIA surged 93% to $35.6 billion, with total data center spending expected to reach $2 trillion in the next five years [3] - Demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell AI processor exceeded expectations, achieving $11 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 [4] - NVIDIA reported GAAP earnings per share of $0.89, an 82% increase from the previous year, and trades at a forward price/earnings ratio of 26.0, lower than the industry average of 30.53 [10] Group 2: IonQ - IonQ's quantum computing system supports AI research for companies like Amazon and Microsoft, with the quantum computing market expected to reach $2 trillion by 2035 [5] - IonQ achieved a 92% revenue increase to $11.7 million in the fourth quarter, with further growth anticipated in sectors like life sciences and finance [6] - IonQ's price-to-sales ratio is 103.6, indicating high valuation, and the company reported a net loss of $202 million despite revenue growth [9] - IonQ's return on equity is negative at -75.3%, contrasting with NVIDIA's positive 117.6% [8]