Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is facing near-term challenges, particularly related to U.S. trade restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, despite strong earnings growth expectations driven by AI chip demand [1][5][7]. Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate Nvidia will report a 48.5% year-over-year earnings growth, reaching $1.01 per share, with revenue expected to rise nearly 53% to almost $46 billion [2]. - A consensus of 58 analysts gives Nvidia stock a "buy" or "outperform" rating, with only one analyst recommending a "sell" [3]. Analyst Concerns - Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore has set a price target of $155, indicating a potential 12% decline in stock price over the next year, while maintaining a "hold" rating [6]. - Seymore warns that U.S. trade restrictions could result in $8 billion in lost revenue for Nvidia in Q2, with a potential $2.6 billion impact on profits over the next year due to these restrictions [7][8]. Revenue Guidance Risks - KeyBanc shares concerns about Nvidia's revenue from China, estimating $2 billion to $3 billion from H20 and B40 chip sales, but considers this revenue unreliable due to export license dependencies [9]. - KeyBanc suggests Nvidia may exclude direct revenue from China in its guidance, which could lead to a guidance miss and negatively impact stock prices [10]. Positive Outlook - Despite concerns, Seymore expects Nvidia to exceed its $45 billion revenue forecast by about $2 billion in the upcoming earnings report [11]. - KeyBanc acknowledges ramping production of Blackwell chips and has raised its price target for Nvidia stock to $215, maintaining an "overweight" rating [12]. Long-term Valuation - Nvidia is valued at $4.28 trillion, with annual profits nearing $77 billion and free cash flow around $72 billion, leading to a high valuation of approximately 55 times trailing earnings [13]. - Analysts project a maximum of 30% annual growth for Nvidia, suggesting the stock may not be a buy at current prices but could become attractive if it declines post-earnings [14].