Pop Mart reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, signaling sustained sales momentum which belied its shares' recent weakness. ...

Summary of Pop Mart (9992.HK) 3Q25 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart (9992.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$333.6 billion / $42.9 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$317.9 billion / $40.9 billion - **Current Price**: HK$250.40 - **Target Price**: HK$350.00 - **Upside Potential**: 39.8% [7][20] Key Financial Metrics - **3Q25 Revenue Growth**: 245%-250% YoY, up from 204% in 1H25, exceeding earlier expectations of 167% for 2H25 [1][21] - **China Sales Growth**: 185%-190% YoY, compared to 135% in 1H25 [1][21] - **Overseas Sales Growth**: 365%-370% YoY, down from 440% in 1H25 [1][21] - **Sales by Channel**: - Offline: 130%-135% YoY - Online: 300%-305% YoY [1][24] Market Insights - **US Market Performance**: In line with market expectations; China sales significantly outperformed despite a higher base [2][3] - **Investor Sentiment**: 3Q results are expected to enhance investor confidence in 2025 earnings visibility, although IP momentum remains critical for growth sustainability [3][19] Operational Highlights - **Sales Growth by Region**: - Asia (excl. China): 170%-175% YoY - America: 1265%-1270% YoY - Europe: 735%-740% YoY [1][24] - **Supply Capacity**: Increased supply capacity is noted, but demand remains high, indicating potential for further growth [19] Earnings Forecasts - **Revised Earnings**: 2025E earnings raised by 7% due to strong 3Q results; 2026E-27E earnings revised down by up to 3% [20] - **Future Revenue Projections**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 39,104 million (up from Rmb 36,551.8 million) - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 52,199.1 million (up from Rmb 50,463.4 million) [7][25] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Dependence on single IPs - Increasing competition - Cost control challenges [37] - **Upside Risks**: - Strong sales from new IP launches - Improved supply chain management - Faster overseas expansion [37] Conclusion - **Rating**: Neutral - **Growth Visibility**: High for 4Q25, driven by peak season and product launches [4][19] - **Investor Focus**: Continued monitoring of IP momentum and secondary market performance is essential for assessing future growth sustainability [3][19]