Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics show an unusual correlation between rising stocks and precious metals, particularly gold, which has increased nearly 70% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20% rise [1][2]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold's performance is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the current U.S. administration's policies that may lead to increased inflation, benefiting gold prices [2][7]. - Historical patterns suggest that new long positions in gold at current levels may not be favorable, as past instances indicate potential corrections after significant price increases [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs projects a base case scenario for gold prices reaching $4,900 per ounce by 2026, with potential for further upside [4]. Market Volatility and Predictions - The current gold price is approximately 100% above its 60-month moving average, a situation not seen since 1939, raising concerns about a possible correction [5][9]. - The low volatility in the stock market, currently at 11%, is expected to rise closer to its historical average of around 20%, which could signal a market correction [10]. - The inflow of gold-backed ETFs has been increasing, contrasting with outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards precious metals [11]. Cryptocurrency Outlook - Bitcoin is anticipated to revert to its historical mean of around $50,000, with skepticism about its ability to surpass $100,000 due to market saturation and overhype [12][14]. - The ratio of Bitcoin to gold has decreased to about 19 ounces of gold per Bitcoin, the lowest in nearly two years, suggesting a bearish outlook for Bitcoin compared to gold [16]. Conclusion on Precious Metals - Gold is expected to continue outperforming other commodities and the stock market, particularly in a declining stock market environment, which poses a significant risk for next year [15].