Core Insights - The paper and packaging industry is currently facing significant demand challenges, with executives from various companies expressing a pessimistic outlook for the near future [2][3][4] - Analysts suggest that while a modest recovery in demand may be on the horizon, it is not expected to be dramatic, and the worst of the downturn may be over [7][18] Demand and Supply Dynamics - International Paper's CEO indicated that current demand is nearing a bottom, while GPI's CEO noted an unusual period of volume weakness [1] - Box shipments are projected to decline by 3% year over year in Q3 2025, with a full-year decline of approximately 2.5% to 3% expected [3] - BofA's box survey indicates a slight improvement in growth expectations, with a decrease of 0.2% anticipated for the next two quarters, compared to a 1% decline previously [4] - Containerboard producers have announced closures totaling about 3.9 million tons, or 9.5% of North American capacity, which is expected to help rebalance supply and demand [7][8] Capacity Adjustments - The industry has seen unprecedented capacity reductions, with 5.4 million tons cut since 2023, marking a significant correction in the market [9][10] - Analysts believe that these capacity cuts are necessary to address the years of oversupply that have affected both North American and global markets [5][10] Pricing Trends - Prices for old corrugated containers (OCC) surged by 245% year over year by mid-2024 but have since declined due to weak containerboard demand [12][13] - Analysts expect OCC prices to continue declining in the coming months, although a modest uptick in demand could lead to price increases by the end of the year [14] Tariff and Trade Impacts - Tariffs have not significantly impacted fiber demand but have affected the demand for goods shipped in boxes, with containerboard production for export dropping nearly 12% year over year [15][16] - Current tariffs are considered mild compared to previous levels, which may help stabilize the market as trade tensions ease [16] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the downward trend in corrugated demand may ease in Q4, supported by potential interest rate cuts and progress on tariff resolutions [18] - A slow and mild recovery is anticipated, with RaboResearch expecting flat linerboard pricing through the first half of 2026 and a potential price increase later in the year [19] - Industry observers are closely monitoring a class action price-fixing lawsuit against top containerboard producers, which could influence future pricing strategies [20][21]