Key Takeaways SW is expected to post Q4 revenues of $7.67B, up 1.7% year over year, with EPS seen at $0.46.Smurfit Westrock should benefit from steady corrugated packaging demand and continued e-commerce growth.SW faces headwinds from weak Europe volumes and merger costs, partly offset by pricing actions.Smurfit Westrock PLC (SW) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 11, before market open.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $7.67 billion, indicating 1.7% growth from ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net income was $102 million or $1.13 per share, while excluding special items, it was $209 million or $2.32 per share, compared to $222 million or $2.47 per share in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $2.4 billion in 2025 from $2.1 billion in 2024, and total company EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $486 million from $439 million [4][5] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $9 billion, up from $8.4 billion in 2024, and EBITDA increased to $1.86 billion from $1.64 billion [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the packaging segment, Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion, resulting in a margin of 21.7%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $426 million and sales of $2 billion [7] - For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, a margin of 22.1%, compared to $1.6 billion and $7.7 billion in 2024 [8] - The paper segment's Q4 EBITDA, excluding special items, was $37 million with sales of $154 million, a margin of 24.2%, compared to $39 million and $151 million in Q4 2024 [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices were $0.50 per share above Q4 2024 but down $0.32 per share compared to Q3 2025 [11] - Export containerboard prices were flat year-over-year and down $0.01 from Q3 2025, with export sales volume up 12,000 tons from Q3 2025 but down 15,000 tons from Q4 2024 [11] - Legacy box plant shipments were down 1.7% compared to last year's record Q4, but overall shipments for 2025 were flat with 2024 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the acquired Greif operations and improving operational efficiency, with plans for gas turbine energy projects to enhance energy independence and reduce costs [10][23] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing in growth while returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [24] - The company is optimistic about demand trends heading into 2026, with expectations for year-over-year growth in corrugated volume and strong shipment volume from acquired plants [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational performance was strong across the mill system, and they expect to operate at full capacity with improved cost structures from the Wallula restructuring [9][26] - The company anticipates challenges from rising costs in labor, energy, and materials, but expects to benefit from price increases in containerboard starting March [25][26] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand trends, citing improvements in consumer sentiment and GDP growth as positive indicators for future performance [53][65] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations reached a record $443 million in Q4, with free cash flow of $124 million after capital expenditures of $319 million [19] - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $668 million and liquidity of about $1.25 billion, with planned capital expenditures for 2026 estimated between $840 million and $870 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected increase in cost per ton in the containerboard business? - Management indicated uncertainty due to seasonal weather impacts and inflationary concerns but noted a potential increase of about $10 per ton [30][36] Question: How are winter storms impacting operations and guidance? - Management reported that winter storms caused some plants to be down, affecting shipments, but they are assessing the situation and expect to recover [32][34] Question: What is the status of the Greif acquisition and its impact on operations? - Management confirmed that they are discontinuing Greif's previous purchase commitments and are focused on integrating the acquired assets for improved operational efficiency [49][43] Question: How does the current demand environment compare to last year? - Management noted a more positive sentiment across the customer base, with improved visibility and predictability in demand compared to the previous year [72][73] Question: Are the recent price increases reflected in the Q1 guidance? - Management stated that the $70 per ton price increase effective March 1 is partially included in the Q1 guidance, but not the full benefit [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net income was $102 million or $1.13 per share, while excluding special items, it was $209 million or $2.32 per share, compared to $222 million or $2.47 per share in Q4 2024 [3][4] - Fourth quarter net sales increased to $2.4 billion in 2025 from $2.1 billion in 2024, and total company EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $486 million from $439 million [4][5] - Full-year 2025 earnings were $888 million or $9.84 per share, up from $815 million or $9.04 per share in 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Packaging segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $476 million with sales of $2.2 billion in Q4 2025, compared to $426 million and $2 billion in Q4 2024, resulting in a margin increase to 21.7% from 21.5% [7] - For the full year 2025, packaging segment EBITDA was $1.83 billion with sales of $8.3 billion, a margin of 22.1%, compared to $1.6 billion and $7.7 billion in 2024 [8] - Paper segment EBITDA, excluding special items, was $37 million with sales of $154 million in Q4 2025, compared to $39 million and $151 million in Q4 2024 [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.50 per share above Q4 2024, but down $0.32 per share compared to Q3 2025 [11] - Export containerboard prices were flat compared to Q4 2024 and down $0.01 from Q3 2025, with export sales volume up 12,000 tons from Q3 2025 but down 15,000 tons from Q4 2024 [11] - Legacy corrugated shipments per day were down 1.7% versus last year's record Q4, although legacy box plant shipments were the second highest ever [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating the acquired Greif operations and improving operational efficiency, with plans for gas turbine energy projects to enhance energy independence and reduce costs [10][23] - The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, investing in growth while returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks [24] - The company is optimistic about demand improvement in 2026, with expectations for solid year-over-year growth in corrugated volume and strong shipment volume from acquired plants [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational performance was strong across the mill and corrugated systems, with good cost management throughout the company [9] - The company expects to face inflationary pressures on costs, particularly in labor, energy, and materials, but anticipates benefits from the Wallula reconfiguration starting in March [26] - Management expressed confidence in the underlying demand trends, citing improvements in consumer sentiment and GDP growth as positive indicators for the business [53][64] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations reached a record $443 million in Q4, with free cash flow of $124 million after capital expenditures of $319 million [19] - The company has planned annual outages in 2026, which are expected to impact earnings significantly, with estimated costs of about $1.39 per share [21] - The company ended the year with a cash balance of $668 million and liquidity of about $1.25 billion [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more granularity on cost increases in the containerboard business? - Management indicated that costs are expected to increase due to seasonal weather impacts and inflationary pressures, but specific numbers were not provided [30][31] Question: What is the impact of winter storms on guidance for the quarter? - Management noted that winter storms caused some plants to be down, impacting shipments, but the mills managed to run through the storms effectively [32][34] Question: What gives comfort regarding reliability issues at the Massillon mill? - Management highlighted significant operational improvements made at the Massillon mill, which included extensive rebuilding efforts [39][40] Question: How are the Greif acquisition commitments being handled? - Management confirmed that they are discontinuing the purchase commitments made by Greif and moving forward with PCA's operational strategies [49] Question: What is the outlook for containerboard pricing and demand? - Management expects containerboard pricing to increase and demand to remain strong, with improvements noted across various customer segments [52][64]

Financial Performance - Q4 net sales reached $2.36 billion, reflecting a 10.1% increase year over year [1] - Full-year net sales totaled $8.99 billion, up 7.2% year over year [1] - Q4 net income was $101.8 million, down 54% year over year [1] - Full-year net income stood at $774.1 million, a decrease of 3.9% year over year [1] Business Conditions - The CEO described business conditions in 2025 as "challenging," but noted some positive aspects in performance [1] - Box shipments from PCA's legacy system were the second-highest ever for Q4, following a record in 2024 [1] - Overall corrugated shipments for 2025 remained flat compared to 2024, with improved trends noted in January [1] Acquired Assets - Q4 marked the first full quarter of integrating Greif's assets, revealing some weaknesses [1] - PCA has made significant progress in integrating and improving the acquired Greif assets, with operational efficiency improving by an estimated 15% at the Massillon and Riverville mills [1] Industry Demand - The North American containerboard industry faced a tough 2025, resulting in a 10% production capacity loss [1] - PCA believes the sector is showing signs of improvement, with a more positive sentiment among customers [1] Pricing and Production - PCA anticipates minor benefits from a $70 per ton containerboard price increase starting in March, with more significant benefits expected in Q2 and beyond [1] - The company plans to align machine operations with demand and will not have excess board for the open market [1] Operational Challenges - PCA is assessing the impact of a recent winter storm that caused plant shutdowns, particularly in Tennessee, Texas, and the Gulf Coast region [1] - Despite some operations continuing, shipments were suspended during the storm [1] Future Investments - PCA is investing in making three mills "energy independent" over the next two and a half years, which will help mitigate future electricity cost increases [1] - The investment plan includes installing gas turbines at the Riverville and Jackson mills, with a third mill also planned [2] Outlook - Machine shutdowns and restructuring at the Wallula mill are expected to be completed by mid-February, with cost improvements anticipated in Q2 [2] - PCA is optimistic about ending 2026 with higher year-over-year demand and expects growth in corrugated volume from both legacy and acquired plants [2]

Group 1 - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has increased its containerboard price to $70 per ton, effective March 1 [2] - Jefferies analyst Philip Ng anticipates that the rest of the industry will follow suit with similar price increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, with revenue estimates indicating a 12.9% growth year-over-year, while earnings estimates suggest a slight decline of 0.8% compared to the previous year [1][5]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PKG's fourth-quarter revenues is $2.42 billion, reflecting a 12.9% increase from the prior year's figure [1][5]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is $2.45 per share, which has remained unchanged over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 0.8% [1][2]. Segment Performance - The Packaging segment is projected to see a revenue increase of 15.2% year-over-year, supported by the acquisition of Greif's containerboard business [5][6]. - The Paper segment is expected to report revenues of $153 million, suggesting a 1.2% growth from the previous year, despite a slight volume decline of 0.8% [8]. Earnings Surprise History - PKG has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 0.3% [2][3]. - The model predicts that PKG is unlikely to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, as indicated by an Earnings ESP of -1.84% [4][6]. Recent Developments - The acquisition of Greif's containerboard business, which includes two mills and several plants across the U.S., is expected to positively impact PKG's earnings immediately [6][7]. - The Packaging segment's volume is anticipated to rise by 11.1% year-over-year, with favorable price and mix impacts contributing an additional 4.2% [7]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, PKG shares have decreased by 6.3%, compared to a 10.3% decline in the industry [11].

Core Viewpoint - Smurfit Westrock Plc is expected to report a profit increase in its upcoming fiscal Q4 earnings announcement, despite recent challenges in the packaging industry [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate a profit of $0.45 per share for fiscal Q4 2025, representing a 32.4% increase from $0.34 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the entire fiscal year 2025, the expected profit is projected at $2.20 per share, up 5.8% from $2.08 per share in fiscal 2024 [3]. - EPS is forecasted to grow 34.1% year over year to $2.95 in fiscal 2026 [3]. Market Performance - Smurfit Westrock's stock has gained 2.4% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 Index's 18.3% rise and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 24.5% return [4]. - The company has faced a challenging demand environment for packaging and containerboard products, leading to weaker consumer packaging shipments and pressure on volumes and margins [5]. Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" rating for Smurfit Westrock, with 14 out of 17 analysts recommending "Strong Buy," two suggesting "Moderate Buy," and one advising "Hold" [6]. - The mean price target for the stock is set at $51.93, indicating a potential upside of 21.5% from current levels [6].

M&A Activity - Megamergers have increased in the packaging industry over the last two years, leading to fewer large players and a shift in focus towards smaller companies for potential deals in 2026 [1] - Analysts predict that only companies with sufficient balance sheet capacity will pursue acquisitions this year due to excess capacity and a dampened demand outlook [2] - M&A activity is expected to be prevalent among companies dealing with distressed substrates like glass, as organic growth is limited [3] - Lower interest rates and pressure from struggling stock prices are anticipated to drive an increase in M&A activity in 2026 [4] - The pace of packaging mergers and acquisitions is expected to hold steady or increase slightly in 2026, with a shift in the type and size of deals [5] Industry Trends - The packaging industry is expected to adapt to changing consumer spending habits and evolving regulatory attitudes, particularly in the food and beverage sectors [6] - North America led in paper and packaging M&A in 2025, but there is still potential for consolidation in Europe, especially in containerboard and flexible packaging [8] - Major packaging companies have divested non-core assets, indicating a trend towards streamlining operations [9] Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) - The implementation of extended producer responsibility for packaging in the U.S. is becoming more significant, with many companies preparing for multiple state programs [10] - The Circular Action Alliance is growing more sophisticated in managing producer responsibilities and aligning reporting deadlines across states [11] - By the end of 2026, more evidence is expected regarding the reinvestment of EPR fees, with initial funding already allocated to recycling facilities [13] Containerboard Sector - The containerboard sector has faced challenges, with production capacity in North America shrinking by approximately 4 million tons, or nearly 10% [18] - Analysts expect further facility closures in 2026, but anticipate a retooling year for containerboard companies rather than a significant pullback [19] - Operating rates are projected to improve, with expectations of reaching the mid-90s, leading to potential price increases later in the year [21] Labor and Automation - The manufacturing sector, including packaging, is experiencing a labor shortage, with nearly 400,000 open manufacturing jobs reported [24] - Recruiting and retaining workers is a significant challenge for manufacturers, with predictions of up to 1.9 million unfilled jobs by 2033 if workforce issues are not addressed [25] - Companies are increasingly turning to automation to fill labor gaps, which also presents opportunities for upskilling workers [28][29]

Core Insights - The SCCM Enhanced Equity Income Fund reported a composite return of 0.9% in Q3 2025, underperforming compared to the S&P 500 Buy-Write Index (3.5%) and the SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (2.5%) [1] - The fund highlighted Smurfit Westrock Plc as a key investment, noting its significant stock performance with a 33.25% increase over the last 52 weeks [2] Company Overview - Smurfit Westrock Plc is a major player in the paper-based packaging industry, formed from the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock in 2024, which enhances its market presence and cost advantages across North America, Europe, and Latin America [3] - The company closed at $36.45 per share on December 04, 2025, with a market capitalization of $19.034 billion [2] Investment Thesis - The ongoing integration of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock is expected to yield synergies that will drive efficiency and earnings growth, with management already showing early progress [3] - Margin expansion opportunities exist as Smurfit Westrock aims to improve pricing discipline and operational efficiencies to align more closely with US peers [3] - The shift to a regional structure is anticipated to enhance management accountability and allow for tailored strategies based on local market conditions [3] Market Trends - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in e-commerce, which is increasing demand for packaging solutions, as well as from rising consumer and regulatory focus on sustainable packaging [3] - There is potential for improved investor sentiment as Smurfit Westrock executes its initiatives, which could lead to a shift in narrative from integration to growth [3] Financial Outlook - Smurfit Westrock is expected to generate stronger cash flows as capital expenditures moderate, potentially leading to increased shareholder returns [3] - A rerating of the shares is likely if the company successfully narrows its valuation gap with peers while achieving execution milestones [3]

Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2025 sales were $6222 million, compared to $6142 million in Q2 2025 and $3979 million in Q3 2024[23] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $859 million, up from $670 million in Q2 2025 and $366 million in Q3 2024[24] - The Adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 138% in Q3 2025, compared to 109% in Q2 2025 and 92% in Q3 2024[25] - The company reported an Adjusted EBIT loss of $240 million in Q3 2025, compared to an Adjusted EBIT of $239 million in Q2 2025 and $158 million in Q3 2024[26] - Adjusted Operating EPS was $(043) in Q3 2025, compared to $018 in Q2 2025 and $033 in Q3 2024[27] - Free cash flow was $150 million in Q3 2025, compared to $54 million in Q2 2025 and $309 million in Q3 2024[28] Packaging Solutions North America (PS NA) - PS NA YTD Adjusted EBITDA increased from $123 billion in 2024 to $172 billion in 2025, a 40% increase[16] - PS NA YTD Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 370 bps, from 120% in 2024 to 157% in 2025[16] - PS NA Adjusted EBITDA increased from $515 million in Q2 2025 to $655 million in Q3 2025[30] - The company expects PS NA Adjusted EBITDA to be $600 million in Q4 2025[37] Packaging Solutions EMEA (PS EMEA) - PS EMEA Adjusted EBITDA increased from $194 million in Q2 2025 to $209 million in Q3 2025[30] - The company expects PS EMEA Adjusted EBITDA to be $230 million in Q4 2025[44] Strategic Initiatives and Targets - The company is targeting approximately $06 billion in incremental Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 from cost out and commercial actions[49] - The company updated its 2025 net sales target to approximately $240 billion and Adjusted EBITDA target to approximately $30 billion[51] - The company updated its 2027 net sales target to approximately $255 billion and Adjusted EBITDA target to approximately $50 billion[51]