Core Insights - Oil futures experienced their steepest weekly decline in over three and a half months, primarily driven by oversupply concerns in the market [2] Group 1: Market Performance - At the close of trading in London, Brent front-month futures were priced at $64.79 per barrel, reflecting a 1.05% increase but a nearly 6% decline from the previous week [3] - The West Texas Intermediate front-month contract also faced a decline, maintaining a price floor at $61 per barrel [3] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ is considering another potential production hike, following a recent increase of 1.66 million barrels per day on September 7, as part of efforts to unwind previous production cuts [4][5] - The group had previously implemented a 1.65 million bpd cut by key members and an additional 2 million bpd cut across the entire group, which is set to last until Q4 2026 [6] Group 3: Future Production Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to increase production further despite existing oversupply concerns, with a meeting scheduled to decide November's output [6] - Reports suggest that the potential production hike could exceed the previously announced 137,000 bpd for October [7] Group 4: Non-OPEC Production Growth - U.S. crude production remains robust, having reached an all-time high of 13.47 million bpd in April and currently above 13 million bpd [8] - Non-OPEC production is also rising, with contributions from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Norway, leading to an expected growth of 1.4 million bpd this year [9] Group 5: Market Dynamics - The anticipated oversupply scenario for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 is driven by the combination of OPEC+ production increases and record non-OPEC production levels [7][9] - Despite OPEC+'s production increases, the demand growth projection of 1.3 million bpd for 2025-26 is insufficient to match the non-OPEC production growth [9] - Brent oil futures have struggled to maintain levels above $70 per barrel since June, reflecting a decline of over 16% on a 12-month basis [10]

Market Performance - India's frontline indices Nifty and BSE Sensex ended positively, with Nifty closing at 24,894.25, up 57.95 points or 0.23%, and Sensex at 81,207.17, rising 223.86 points or 0.28% [1][12] - The Nifty breadth was slightly bearish, with 26 stocks in the green and 24 in the red [2][12] - Among the top gainers were Tata Steel, Axis Bank, and Larsen & Toubro, while the top losers included Max Healthcare Institute, Tech Mahindra, and Maruti Suzuki [12] Sector Performance - Out of 17 Nifty sectoral indices, 14 finished in the green, with Nifty Metal, Nifty PSU Bank, and Nifty Consumer Durables closing up by 1.8%, 1.12%, and 1.09% respectively [5][12] - Nifty Auto fell marginally by 0.06%, while Nifty Realty and Nifty Healthcare were down by 0.12% and 0.22% respectively [2][12] Technical Analysis - Technical Analyst Vatsal Bhuva noted that the Nifty index showed strength after closing above its short-term resistance, with crucial support near the 100-day EMA at 24,750 [6][12] - Heavy put writing at 24,800 indicates a support base, while the highest open interest concentration at 25,000 highlights a strong resistance zone, suggesting a mildly bullish trading range of 24,750–25,100 [6][12] Global Market Influence - Asian markets were largely positive, with Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.8%, while China's Shanghai Composite and FTSE Straits Times Index rose by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively [7][12] - European markets also showed positive action, with Germany's DAX, Spain's IBEX, and French CAC 40 rallying between 0.8% and 0.1% [7][12] Currency and Commodities - The Indian rupee closed slightly weaker at 88.7725 against the U.S. dollar, remaining close to its all-time low of 88.80 [8][9][12] - Crude oil prices increased after four consecutive declines, with US WTI oil contracts trading at $60.88, up by $0.40 or 0.66%, and Brent oil futures at $64.51, higher by $0.40 or 0.62% [10][12]

Market Overview - Oil prices experienced a decline after reaching seven-week highs, influenced by a surprise drop in US crude inventories and ongoing supply concerns from Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia [2][7] - Asian markets showed mixed performance, with MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 0.2% after significant gains in the previous month and quarter [3][8] - Wall Street closed lower for the second consecutive session as investors took profits from record-high stocks, with futures indicating a 92% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October [4][8] Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures report and the final estimate for Q2 GDP, is anticipated to influence market sentiment amid concerns over a potential government shutdown [4][8] - Treasury yields remained stable, with the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield flat at 4.1408% after a slight increase [4][8] Currency and Commodities - The US dollar slipped 0.1% against the yen, while the yen hit an over one-year low against the euro and an all-time low against the Swiss franc [5][8] - Spot gold prices remained flat at $3,739 per ounce, while US crude and Brent oil prices fell slightly to $64.73 and $69.11 per barrel, respectively [6][8] - Brent oil futures are expected to find support in the $65-$70 per barrel range despite forecasts of oversupply in late 2025 and early 2026 [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced fluctuations due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with traders closely monitoring the situation and its implications for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][3]. Supply Dynamics - Brent futures for November were trading at $69.46 per barrel, reflecting a 1.92% increase, while the October Nymex WTI contract was at $65.97 per barrel, up 3.06% [2]. - Ukrainian drone attacks have reportedly disrupted facilities that account for at least 17% of Russia's oil processing capacity, raising concerns about the stability of Russian oil supplies [3]. - The OPEC+ alliance, including major players like Russia and Saudi Arabia, is expected to maintain current production levels without changes in strategy during their upcoming meeting [6][7]. Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced intentions for "new deep strikes" against Russia, indicating an escalation in military actions [4]. - The U.S. has imposed indirect pressure on Russia's oil consumers, particularly targeting India's imports of Russian crude, which has led to tensions between the U.S. and India [5]. - The recent meeting of Putin, Xi Jinping, and Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit highlights a united front among major oil consumers against Western sanctions [5]. Market Influences - Market participants are awaiting the U.S. August job report, which is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to lower interest rates and increased demand for oil [7].