Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Bitcoin's Wall Street-like fear gauge has spiked to its highest level since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022, signaling intense market panic as prices plummeted to nearly $60,000. Volmex's bitcoin volatility index (BVIV), which represents the annualized expected price turbulence over four weeks, jumped to nearly 100% from 56% on Thursday. The index serves as a crypto equivalent to Cboe's VIX, the so-called fear/panic gauge, which indicates the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500 and rises d ...

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced significant price fluctuations, with gold falling as much as 6.3% and silver dropping to around $75 an ounce after reaching record highs [1][2] - The recent selloff was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted precious metals [3] - A crowded trade in precious metals, driven by geopolitical concerns and speculative buying, has led to extreme volatility and risk in the market [2][4] Price Movements - As of 9:21 a.m. Singapore time, gold was priced at $4,680.76 an ounce, down 4.4%, while silver declined 2.2% to $83.2965 [5] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1% after a previous gain of 0.9%, indicating a stronger dollar [5] Market Dynamics - The surge in precious metal prices over the past year was fueled by concerns over geopolitical instability and currency debasement, with significant buying from Chinese speculators [2] - The market's volatility was exacerbated by a record wave of call option purchases, which created upward price momentum as sellers hedged their positions [4]

Core Insights - Gold and silver experienced their largest decline in years, with gold dropping as much as 8% to below $5,000 per ounce and silver plunging over 20%, marking the biggest intraday drop since 2008 [1][3] - The selloff was influenced by a rebound in the dollar following the announcement of Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve chair, which undermined investor sentiment towards precious metals [3][4] - Despite the selloff, both gold and silver are still on track for significant monthly gains, indicating underlying strength in the market [3] Market Dynamics - A surge in investor demand for precious metals over the past year has led to record prices and high volatility, driven by concerns over currency debasement, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions [2] - The recent price movements were characterized by extreme volatility, with traders' risk models being strained due to soaring prices [5] - A gamma squeeze may have exacerbated the decline, as dealers shorting options were forced to buy more futures to balance their portfolios as prices fluctuated [6] Trading Behavior - The market had been primed for corrections due to the rapid price increases, with traders waiting for a trigger to unwind their positions [4] - A record wave of call option purchases contributed to upward price momentum, as sellers hedged their exposure by buying more [5] - Large options positions were noted at specific price levels, indicating potential areas of volatility as these positions expired [6]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns, indicating a systematic approach to analyzing price movements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns, indicating a systematic approach to technical analysis [1]

Group 1: Dividend Stocks and Market Trends - Dividend stocks are gaining attention due to rising geopolitical tensions and labor market concerns, as they tend to perform better during market volatility [1] - A Redditor shared his portfolio, revealing a monthly dividend income of $10,097, highlighting the appeal of dividend stocks among investors [1] Group 2: Portfolio Highlights - The Redditor's largest investment is in Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) with a stake of $581,000, which has increased by 48% over the past year and yields approximately 0.8% [3] - The second-largest holding is Fidelity Government Money Market Fund (NASDAQ:SPAXX) with a $200,000 investment, focusing on short-term government securities [4] - Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) is another significant investment, with an $85,000 position and a stock price increase of 36% over the past year [4] - The YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NYSE:NVDY) has a distribution rate of about 38%, generated by selling call options on Nvidia [5] - The YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (NYSE:MSTY) has a distribution rate of about 64%, derived from selling call options on Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) [6] - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) is noted for its dividend yield of over 12% and a stock price increase of 9% over the past year [9]

Core Insights - Many traders lose money on long call options due to insufficient stock movement, time decay, poor strike selection, and chasing the wrong stocks [1] Strike Selection - Out-of-the-money (OTM) calls have no intrinsic value, relying entirely on time and volatility, requiring larger-than-expected stock movements to break even [3] - In-the-money (ITM) calls have higher delta, moving more closely with the underlying stock, thus increasing the odds of a successful trade [4] Stock Selection - Successful long call trades require strong trends and real momentum, making stock selection as crucial as strike selection [5] - A disciplined process for stock selection is emphasized, rather than random chart scrolling or chasing hype [2][5] Long Call Candidates - The Uptrending Stocks list focuses on large-cap stocks meeting specific technical conditions: rising 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, improving volume trends, and trading at least 20% below their 52-week highs [8]

Core Insights - Covered-call strategies are beneficial for income investors, providing returns regardless of market direction, with some funds yielding as high as 89% [2][5] Group 1: Overview of Covered Calls - Covered calls involve selling call options against stocks already owned, allowing investors to earn premiums while potentially selling shares at a predetermined price [4] - This strategy generates income in flat and down markets, making it appealing for income-focused investors [5] Group 2: Fund Analysis - **FT Vest Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF (RDVI)**: Offers an 8.2% yield, focusing on dividend growers from the Nasdaq US Rising Dividend Achievers Index, but has shown underperformance compared to its index [6][8] - **FT Energy Income Partners Enhanced Income ETF (EIPI)**: Launched in 2024 with a 7.3% yield, actively manages covered calls on individual energy stocks, outperforming its energy benchmark [9][12] - **Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)**: Provides a 12.1% yield, but has underperformed its index despite offering limited downside protection [11][14] - **YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy (NVDY)**: Features an exceptionally high yield of 88.9%, trading NVIDIA shares and selling calls, but sustainability of returns is questionable if NVIDIA's stock performance declines [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]