热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月1日 本周宏观情绪偏强，带动油粕上行，周末随着情绪回吐以及澳菜籽成功入榨，油粕出现分化，菜粕回吐 较多。随着菜籽供应恢复兑现，后期油厂压榨将逐步增加，需要关注榨利兑现情况以及后期菜籽进口买 船装运节奏。 中国陆续采购加菜籽，ICE菜籽震荡 中加经贸缓和以来，市场陆续出现加菜籽进口成交，成交数量至少在10船以上，部分乐观预期或达15船 以上，平均来看3-5月月均进口可能在5船左右，折合30万吨以上。尽管如此，本周ICE菜籽反弹相对有 限，主力合约徘徊在650加元/吨左右。目前加菜籽累计出口仍同比偏低35%以上，暗示着外盘仍有潜在 供应压力。 首批澳菜籽顺利入榨，关注新船装运情况 本周首批澳菜籽成功通关入榨，菜粕基差报价环比走强，后期油粕交投氛围有望改善。由于中加菜籽贸 易缓和，澳菜籽进口预期有一定恶化，但在前期已经累计采购较多澳菜籽的前提下，后期仍需关注新一 轮澳菜籽装运情况。总的来看，3月以前油厂菜籽供应仍主要取决于澳菜籽，而年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance with significant declines in canola seed futures, while other oil futures experience slight increases or decreases in prices [1] Price Movements - As of January 13, 2023, the main futures prices are as follows: - Canola oil increased by 0.69% to 9033.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil increased by 1.85% to 8818.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal decreased by 0.29% to 2778.00 CNY/ton - Canola seed decreased by 5.93% to 5221.00 CNY/ton [1] - Opening and closing prices for various contracts on January 13, 2023, include: - Soybean oil: opened at 8008.00 CNY, closed at 7994.00 CNY - Palm oil: opened at 8746.00 CNY, closed at 8724.00 CNY - Canola oil: opened at 8974.00 CNY, closed at 8980.00 CNY - Soybean meal: opened at 2799.00 CNY, closed at 2790.00 CNY - Canola meal: opened at 2330.00 CNY, closed at 2330.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of January 12, 2023, warehouse receipts for various futures are reported as follows: - Soybean two futures: 400 contracts, unchanged from the previous trading day - Soybean oil futures: 29197 contracts, decreased by 229 contracts - Soybean meal futures: 25410 contracts, unchanged - Palm oil futures: 1448 contracts, increased by 200 contracts - Soybean one futures: 25546 contracts, decreased by 260 contracts - Canola meal futures: 84 contracts, unchanged - Canola oil futures: 2292 contracts, increased by 130 contracts - Peanut futures: 1855 contracts, increased by 239 contracts [3] Basis Data - The basis data as of January 12, 2023, indicates the following: - Canola oil: spot price 9882 CNY, futures price 8971 CNY, basis 911 CNY, basis rate 9.22% - Canola meal: spot price 2460 CNY, futures price 2328 CNY, basis 132 CNY, basis rate 5.37% - Palm oil: spot price 8620 CNY, futures price 8658 CNY, basis -38 CNY, basis rate -0.44% - Soybean one: spot price 4455 CNY, futures price 4349 CNY, basis 106 CNY, basis rate 2.38% - Soybean meal: spot price 3186 CNY, futures price 2786 CNY, basis 400 CNY, basis rate 12.55% - Soybean oil: spot price 8348 CNY, futures price 7972 CNY, basis 376 CNY, basis rate 4.50% [4]

Canola Industry Impact - The Chinese market is effectively closed to the Canadian canola industry due to new tariffs, impacting the entire value chain from farms to processing [1] - Canada is facing 100% tariffs on canola oil and meal, alongside preliminary duties of 75.8% on canola seed, significantly affecting exports [2] - The canola sector is calling for political engagement with China to resolve these trade tensions, emphasizing the need for political solutions [7] Electric Vehicle (EV) Tariffs - Canada imposed a federal surtax on China-made EVs to align with the U.S., which had previously increased its tariffs on such imports [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing its 100% tariffs on electric vehicles from China, assessing the appropriateness of the surtax rate and scope [6] - The auto sector argues that maintaining tariffs is essential to protect local industries from unfair competition, while some advocates suggest removing barriers could provide cheaper vehicles and help meet environmental goals [8][9] Economic Contributions and Comparisons - The canola sector reportedly contributes $43.7 billion to the Canadian economy and employs about 200,000 people, although these figures are contested [15] - A contrasting analysis indicates that canola farming and processing contributed only $5 billion to GDP and employed 21,576 people, compared to the automotive sector's $19.1 billion contribution and 118,120 jobs [15][16] - The debate highlights a division between Western agricultural interests and Eastern industrial priorities, with calls for the government to balance support for both sectors [14]

路透：消息人士称，澳洲即将与中国政府达成协议，允许澳洲供应商向中国试运五批菜籽油，此举将结束长达数年的菜籽油贸易冻结。 ...