Flash | Anna Wang 27 Jan 2026 10:41:05 ET │ 9 pages China Battery Materials China Battery Supply Chain on the Ground: Resilient demand despite seasonality; concern on cost inflation CITI'S TAKE Our channel check with ZE Consulting suggests the top four battery makers' production pipeline might be down by 11% MoM in February, as Gotion is yet to update its plan (likely due to higher costs lately). That said, demand remains resilient even though we are heading into slack season amid the Chinese New Year, as t ...

Summary of Lifezone Metals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lifezone Metals (NYSE:LZM) - **Core Project**: Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania, the largest development-ready nickel sulfide project globally, also includes copper and cobalt [3][5] Key Points Industry Context - **Nickel Supply Chain**: Currently dominated by Indonesia, which controls approximately 70% of the nickel supply chain through Chinese companies, posing a strategic risk for the West [5][42] - **Market Dynamics**: Nickel prices are currently low, around $14,000-$15,000 per ton, with many Indonesian companies operating at a loss due to oversupply [15][42] Project Economics - **Kabanga Nickel Project**: - Net asset value of $1.6 billion with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 23% [5] - High-grade nickel deposit at 2% nickel, significantly above many North American projects (0.2%-0.3%) [14][41] - All-in sustaining cost of $7,800 per ton, making it economically viable even at current nickel prices [15] Financing and Partnerships - **Funding Strategy**: - Currently raising $500 million in equity and $800 million in debt financing, with Standard Chartered and SOC Gen involved [8][9] - Engaging with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation for project financing and political risk insurance [6][7] - **Government Partnership**: The Tanzanian government holds a 16% free carry in the project, fostering a partnership model for better collaboration [18][19] Future Milestones - **Key Announcements**: - Anticipated announcement regarding equity partners in Q2 2026, which is expected to positively impact stock valuation [20][21] - Final investment decision (FID) expected around Q2 2026, with production anticipated to start approximately 2.5 years post-FID, targeting late 2028 [45] Technology and Innovation - **Hydrometallurgy Expertise**: Lifezone Metals holds over 120 global patents in hydrometallurgy, which is more energy-efficient than traditional smelting [4][22] - **Recycling Initiatives**: Partnership with Glencore to recycle catalytic converters, with potential to produce 200,000 ounces of platinum, palladium, and rhodium annually from a $30 million facility [25][26] Strategic Importance - **Non-Indonesian Nickel Source**: Kabanga is positioned as a critical source of nickel and cobalt for Western supply chains, addressing U.S. demand for cobalt [41][43] - **Infrastructure Development**: Tanzania is investing in infrastructure, including rail and power, to support the Kabanga project, enhancing its economic viability [35][36] Labor and Local Impact - **Labor Supply**: The project will draw from Tanzania's established mining industry, with plans to train local workers while bringing in specialists as needed [37][38] Additional Insights - **Market Positioning**: Kabanga is expected to be one of the top 10 nickel mines globally upon production, with a focus on producing nickel sulfate or nickel powder for market demand [40][39] - **Long-term Vision**: Lifezone Metals aims to leverage its hydromet technology across multiple projects, indicating a shift towards becoming a technology-driven company [11][32]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Battery Supply Chain - **Key Event**: Announcement of a trade deal between the US and Japan, setting a reciprocal tariff rate at 15% and reducing the Section 232 tariff on Japanese automobiles from 25% to 12.5% [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact on Battery Costs**: If Korea signs a similar trade deal, the tariff-inclusive battery costs could decline due to the halving of the Section 232 tariff [3][5] - **Competitiveness of Korean Cathode Makers**: The relative competitiveness of Korean cathode manufacturers would improve against Indonesian counterparts due to a 10 percentage point decline in the reciprocal tariff [3] - **Market Share Loss**: Korean cathode makers have reportedly lost market share to Indonesian capacities controlled by Chinese entities [3] Risks and Considerations - **Safety Issues**: The battery industry has experienced safety issues that can directly impact company profitability and industry demand, particularly through recalls [5] - **Trade Policy Volatility**: Frequent changes in trade policies are identified as key demand drivers, leading to significant profit swings for companies along the battery supply chain [5] Additional Important Information - **Analyst Contact Information**: Tim Bush and Cherie Miao from UBS Securities Asia Limited are the analysts responsible for this report [4] - **Valuation Methodology**: The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the risks and returns associated with investments in the battery supply chain [5][30] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of trade agreements, competitive dynamics in the battery industry, and associated risks.