Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q3 2025 were $907 million, finishing near the midpoint of the guidance range [14] - Adjusted net income margin was 3.7%, exceeding the high end of the guidance [15] - GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.66, while adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.68 [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased by 0.3%, with total sales of $651.4 million, up 1% from the prior year [15][6] - North Italia's total sales were $83.5 million, up 16% from the prior year, with comparable sales declining by 3% [15][12] - Flower Child's sales totaled $48.1 million, up 31% from the prior year, with comparable sales increasing by 7% [15][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Annualized unit volumes for The Cheesecake Factory averaged over $12 million, while North Italia reached $7.3 million [6][11] - Flower Child's annualized AUVs were $4.6 million, significantly outperforming the fast casual segment [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open as many as 25 new restaurants in 2025 and 26 in 2026, focusing on delivering exceptional food and service [8][20] - Menu innovation is a key strategic focus, with new offerings resonating well with customers and driving sales [6][10] - The company is developing a dedicated rewards app to enhance guest engagement and streamline the rewards program [11][90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a softer macro and consumer environment but emphasized stable overall performance and healthy demand for their concepts [6][22] - The company anticipates total revenues for Q4 2025 to be between $940 million and $955 million, reflecting a cautious outlook due to current consumer trends [18] - Management expressed confidence in navigating the dynamic macro environment, citing strong execution and a resilient business model [22] Other Important Information - The Cheesecake Factory's restaurant-level profit margin increased by 60 basis points year-over-year to 16.3% [7] - Labor as a percentage of sales declined by 30 basis points, driven by improved retention and productivity [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is driving the caution in consumer behavior? - Management indicated that the caution is primarily due to a decline in traffic, with stable day parts but a slight drop in overall consumer visits [24] Question: Can you provide the breakdown of comps for The Cheesecake Factory and North Italia? - For The Cheesecake Factory, pricing was about 4%, traffic was negative 2.5%, and mix was the difference. For North Italia, price was 4%, mix was negative 1%, and traffic rounded to negative 6% [27] Question: What is the outlook for commodity inflation in Q4? - Commodity inflation was flat in Q3, but is expected to be around 2% in Q4, primarily driven by beef prices [29] Question: How is the company addressing value at North Italia? - North Italia is promoting a small plate and pasta lunch for $25 to enhance value perception among guests [55] Question: Are there any changes in labor demand? - Management reported no significant changes in labor demand or applicant flow, maintaining a steady environment for hiring [88] Question: What are the expectations for the new app? - The app is expected to enhance the rewards program, allowing for easier reservations and order placements, with a launch planned for the first half of next year [90]

Core Insights - The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 28, with a history of beating earnings estimates in the past four quarters, averaging a surprise of 15.2% [1] Estimate Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 60 cents, reflecting a 3.5% increase from 58 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $912.9 million, indicating a 5.5% rise from the previous year's quarter [2] Factors Influencing Quarterly Results - The company's performance is expected to benefit from steady demand, disciplined cost management, and sustained brand relevance, with strategic menu innovations like "Bowls" and "Bites" contributing to comparable sales growth [3] - Engagement from the Cheesecake Rewards program is anticipated to enhance top-line performance, with total revenues projected between $905 million and $915 million [3] Revenue Contributions - Strong contributions from North Italia Restaurants and Other FRC are expected, with revenues predicted to rise 14.6% to $82.3 million and 34.3% to $90 million year-over-year, respectively [4] Profitability Outlook - Profitability is expected to remain healthy due to operational excellence, improved labor retention, and favorable commodity costs, with four-wall margins reaching 18.5% in the prior quarter [5] - The company aims to maintain margins within a long-term target range of 16% to 18% through efficiency and guest satisfaction [5] Cost Challenges - Modest wage inflation, higher medical costs, and increased pre-opening expenses may partially offset profitability gains, with labor expenses projected to rise 5.5% year-over-year to $328.2 million [6] Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for Cheesecake Factory, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +3.85% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7][9] - The expected Q3 EPS is $0.60 on revenues of $912.9 million, with menu enhancements and loyalty engagement likely aiding comparable sales growth [8]