Greetings. I'm Sean Puit, Zach's equity strategist. Today, I'm going to be discussing whether GM or Ford stock is the better auto investment for 2026.So, investors may be wondering if the strong momentum in General Motors are Ford stock will continue this year after impressively outperforming the broader market and most of their auto peers in 2025, including Tesla. So defying fears of slower EV growth and higher costs associated with President Trump's liberation tariffs, these legacy automakers have been ab ...

Core Insights - Consumer discretionary stocks are seeking recovery after a challenging year, while automotive stocks, particularly General Motors, are showing resilience and growth in the EV market [2][6] - General Motors is gaining traction in the EV sector, with significant sales increases for its Chevrolet Equinox EV, which ranked third in U.S. EV sales [4][6] Group 1: Automotive Market Performance - U.S. auto sales reached 16.17 million vehicles in 2025, indicating a strong market performance [2][6] - General Motors' stock rose by 60% in 2025, reflecting investor confidence and market momentum [6] Group 2: General Motors vs. Tesla - General Motors has a market capitalization of $77.22 billion, significantly lower than Tesla's $1.48 trillion, yet GM has shown respectable stock performance with a 128% increase since 2020 [3] - GM is viewed as a reliable, low-volatility stock with nearly 93% institutional ownership, compared to Tesla's 66% [4] Group 3: Electric Vehicle Sales - The Chevrolet Equinox EV saw its sales double year-over-year to nearly 58,000 units in 2025, showcasing GM's growing presence in the EV market [4][6] - Despite the growth in EV sales, GM's internal combustion engine vehicles still dominate, with over 93,000 GMC Yukons and more than 114,000 Chevy Tahoes sold in 2025 [5]

Core Insights - General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) have shown strong stock performance in 2025, outperforming the broader market and most auto peers, including Tesla (TSLA) [1] - Both companies have reported better-than-expected financial results despite concerns over EV growth and tariffs [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - GM stock has increased by 65% over the past year, reaching all-time highs of over $80 per share, while Ford shares have risen more than 40%, nearing a 52-week peak of $14 [2] - GM's strong cash generation and stock repurchase program have excited investors, while Ford's operational execution is gaining optimism amid restructuring and cost-cutting initiatives [2] Group 2: EV Sales Performance - GM sold a record 169,887 EVs in 2025, a 48% increase from 2024, despite a decline in Q4 EV sales to 25,219 from 43,982 in Q4 2024 [5] - Ford sold 84,113 EVs in 2025, a 14% decrease from 2024, with Q4 EV sales dropping over 50% to 14,500 [6] - GM finished 2025 as the second-best-selling EV maker in the U.S., while Ford ranked third, selling half as many EVs as GM [5][6] Group 3: Financial Outlook - GM's FY25 earnings per share (EPS) is estimated to dip 2% to $10.33, but FY26 EPS is projected to rise 14% to $11.81 [8] - Ford's FY25 EPS is expected to drop significantly to $1.08 from $1.84 in 2024, primarily due to a $2.5 billion impact from tariffs, with FY26 EPS projected to rebound to $1.42 [10] Group 4: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) - GM has a higher ROIC of 4.6% compared to Ford's 2.7%, with both companies operating in a low-margin environment [13] - The transition to EVs is capital-intensive, impacting ROIC as investments are made before generating significant profits [13] Group 5: Valuation and Dividends - Both GM and Ford are trading under 11X forward earnings, with GM having a cheaper P/E multiple of 7X compared to Ford's 10X [14][15] - Ford offers a higher annual dividend yield of 4.23% compared to GM's 0.72%, but GM's annual dividend has increased by 20.46% over the last five years, while Ford's has grown by 8.71% [16] Group 6: Investment Ratings - GM's earnings momentum has led to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while Ford currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [20]

Core Insights - General Motors Company (GM) is adapting to changing consumer demands and policy shifts in the electric vehicle (EV) market, indicating a strategic focus on long-term growth in this sector [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - GM announced temporary production cuts at its Spring Hill, Tennessee EV plant, halting assembly of Cadillac Lyriq and Vistiq SUVs through December 2025, due to weaker-than-expected demand following the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit [2] - Despite the production cuts, GM reported record U.S. EV sales in August, with over 21,000 units sold across popular models, although sales momentum has slowed [3] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Developments - GM is enhancing its competitive edge through a partnership with Hyundai to co-develop new vehicles, focusing on shared R&D and sourcing key materials to improve efficiency and cost competitiveness [4] - The company plans to relocate its headquarters from Detroit's Renaissance Center to Woodward Avenue, signaling a new era as it balances internal combustion and EV production [5] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - GM remains confident in its long-term EV growth, supported by demand for affordable models like the Chevy Equinox EV priced under $35,000 and the upcoming Chevy Bolt EV near $30,000 [3] - CEO Mary Barra emphasized resilience amid supply chain disruptions and regulatory changes, reaffirming GM's commitment to delivering vehicles appealing to a broad range of consumers [5]

Core Insights - The automotive industry, particularly the electric vehicle (EV) sector, experienced a surge in sales in August as consumers rushed to purchase EVs before the $7,500 federal tax credit expires at the end of September [1][2][10] Group 1: Ford Motor Company - Ford reported a 3.9% increase in total vehicle sales in August, totaling 190,206 vehicles, marking the sixth consecutive month of sales gains [4] - Year-to-date, Ford's total vehicle sales reached 1.5 million, a 6.6% increase compared to the previous year [4] - Ford's EV sales spiked 19% in August to 10,671 vehicles, although year-to-date EV sales are down 5.7% to 57,888 vehicles [4][5] Group 2: General Motors - General Motors achieved its best month ever for EV sales in August, selling over 21,000 EVs across its Chevrolet, Cadillac, and GMC brands [9][8] - The Chevy Equinox EV, Cadillac Lyriq, and GMC Sierra EV significantly contributed to GM's strong performance in the EV market [9] - GM remains the No. 2 seller of EVs in the U.S., benefiting from strong manufacturer loyalty and customer commitment to EV technology [8][9] Group 3: Market Outlook - September is anticipated to be another strong month for EV sales, but a potential decline in demand is expected after the tax credit expires [10] - Automakers may need to offer substantial discounts to move inventory before the tax credit ends, as they aim to avoid excess stock [11] - The profitability of EV segments is crucial for traditional automakers, with Ford's Model-e division reportedly losing around $5 billion in 2024 [12]

Electric Vehicle Tax Credit - The electric vehicle tax credit of $7,500 is expiring on September 30th [2] - Consumers can still get the tax credit if they sign a contract and pay a deposit before the deadline, even if delivery takes place later [3] - Recommended EVs include Chevy Equinox EV (under $35,000), Tesla Model Y, and BMW iX (around $90,000) [5][6] Energy Efficient Home Upgrades Tax Breaks - Tax credits for solar panels and heat pumps are expiring at the end of the year, December 31st [8] - The solar panel tax credit covers 30% of the installation cost, which can be a saving of several thousand dollars on an average $20,000 installation [9] - Energy efficiency upgrades also cover 30% of the cost, up to $2,000 for heat pump installation, up to $1,200 for weatherization, up to $600 for electrical panels and exterior windows, and up to $150 for an energy efficiency audit [12]

Core Insights - The upcoming Q2 2025 earnings reports for Ford and General Motors are highly anticipated by investors to assess which stock is better positioned [1] - General Motors is set to report earnings on the upcoming Tuesday, while Ford will follow on July 30 [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GM's Q2 earnings is $2.44 per share with revenues of $45.34 billion, having surpassed EPS estimates in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 10.16% [2] - Ford's consensus estimates are $0.30 for EPS and $41.5 billion for sales, with a less favorable earnings surprise history, beating estimates twice and missing once in the last four quarters [3] Earnings Surprise Potential - General Motors has a Zacks Rank of 3 and an Earnings ESP of -4.05%, while Ford has a Zacks Rank of 2 and an Earnings ESP of -36.59% [4] Vehicle Deliveries - Ford sold 612,095 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 14.2% increase year-over-year, driven by strong demand for trucks and hybrids [5] - General Motors sold 746,588 units, up 7.3% year-over-year, with significant growth across all brands, particularly Buick, which saw a 19.3% increase in Q2 [6] Electrification Efforts - General Motors has accelerated its electric vehicle sales, with EV sales up 111% to 46,280 units in Q2, driven by a diverse lineup [7][8] - Ford's EV sales, however, dropped 31% in Q2, but the company is focusing on hybrid strategies and operational scaling for long-term growth [9] Tariff Impact - Ford anticipates a $1.5 billion impact from tariffs, while General Motors expects a profit impact of $4-$5 billion due to tariffs on imports [10] Dividend Comparison - Ford offers a high dividend yield of over 5%, significantly higher than GM's 1.13% and the industry average of 0.3% [11] - Ford aims to distribute 40-50% of free cash flow going forward, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [12] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline in EPS for GM and Ford of 12.3% and 40%, respectively, but Ford's 2026 EPS is projected to grow by 13.4% [13] - Recent estimate revisions suggest Ford is better positioned than GM, with Ford's 2025 EPS estimate remaining stable at $1.11 [14] Stock Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, Ford's shares have risen 20%, while GM's stock price has remained flat [15] - GM's stock trades at 5.65X forward earnings, while Ford's is at 9.94X, both below the auto sector's average of 25.82X [18] Conclusion - Ford appears better positioned heading into Q2 earnings due to its hybrid momentum, shareholder-friendly policies, and solid stock performance, despite GM's strength in EV sales [19]