Core Viewpoint - Brinker International reported strong second-quarter earnings, with significant same-store sales growth, indicating resilience in consumer dining habits despite a cautious outlook for the remainder of 2025 [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Overall revenue reached $1.46 billion, reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase [2]. - The company achieved a remarkable 54% year-over-year growth in earnings, showcasing its pricing power and ability to attract customers [2]. - Same-store sales growth for Chili's and Maggiano's chains was reported at 21.3% [1]. Future Outlook - The company provided cautious guidance for 2025, highlighting potential volatility in commodity costs and emphasizing menu innovation, digital ordering, and loyalty programs to enhance customer engagement [4]. - Analysts project a 12.65% earnings growth over the next 12 months, which is above the sector average [8]. Market Position - EAT stock has been one of the strongest-performing restaurant stocks over the past five years, trading at an attractive valuation of around 19x forward sales, which is a discount to the sector average [7][8]. - Despite recent gains, EAT stock is still down overall for the last five days, indicating a need for further confirmation of a new trend [2][9]. Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - The current price target for EAT stock is $156.41, with a consensus hold rating among analysts [9][11]. - The stock is trading near the consensus price target, and analysts have been raising their price targets in the last two months [10][11].

August 13, 2025 Q4 F25 $1,002 $1,064 $1,109 $1,197 $1,127 $1,346 $1,413 $1,449 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Company Sales F24 F25 $1,013 $1,074 $1,120 $1,208 $1,139 $1,358 $1,425 $1,462 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Revenues F24 F25 * Chili's, Maggiano's, and Company sales restated to include F23 accounting change. Q4 FOOD COST HIGHER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE MENU MIX SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT During these presentations, and in response to your questions, certain items may be discussed which are not based entirely on historical facts. Any ...

Brinker International Inc. fourth-quarter earnings beat expectations with the Chili’s owner expecting that momentum to carry through in the next fiscal year, issuing an outlook eclipsing analyst predictions https://t.co/sJkMfaAKl0 ...

Wall Street analysts forecast that Brinker International (EAT) will report quarterly earnings of $2.43 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 50.9%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $1.43 billion, exhibiting an increase of 18.6% compared to the year-ago quarter.The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has undergone an upward revision of 0.9% in the past 30 days, bringing it to its present level. This represents how the covering analysts, as a whole, have ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported AFFO per share of $0.44, which is up 2.8% from Q2 last year [20] - Rental income for Q2 was $64.5 million, representing growth of over 11% compared to the same quarter last year [20] - The net debt to adjusted EBITDAre was 4.5 times, which is below the stated guidance of 5.5 to 6 times [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2, the company acquired 24 properties for $84 million at a blended cap rate of 6.7% [12] - The automotive sector accounted for 68% of total acquisition volume, indicating a strong focus on this area [12] - The company has diversified its portfolio, with 34% of rent now coming from sectors outside casual dining [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that same-store sales for Olive Garden and LongHorn grew nearly 7% for the quarter ended May 2025 [8] - Chili's reported a same-store sales growth of 32% for the quarter ended March 2025, indicating strong performance in the casual dining sector [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a defensive portfolio focused on central retail and services, which are seen as tariff resistant [9] - The strategy includes modulating acquisitions based on the cost of capital, allowing the company to protect spreads without compromising portfolio quality [6] - The company is committed to maintaining high-quality standards in acquisitions and has a strong competitive advantage in its ability to fluctuate acquisition volumes [6][7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio's resilience, highlighting a strong track record with low bad debt expense and effective releasing results [65] - The company anticipates a pullback in consumer spending due to potential recession or high inflation but believes it is well-positioned with low rents [9] - Management indicated that the current market conditions allow for continued execution of the company's strategy, with significant available capital for acquisitions [65] Other Important Information - The company has raised nearly $505 million in equity over the last twelve months, providing significant capacity for acquisitions [17] - The portfolio occupancy remains strong at 99.4%, with 99.8% of base rent collected for Q2 [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about acquisition team capacity - Management stated that the company is appropriately staffed and has the capacity to do more acquisitions if favorable pricing is available [25][27] Question: Impact of cap rate changes on acquisition opportunities - Management indicated that a 25 basis point decrease in cap rates could significantly increase acquisition opportunities, potentially by $100 million to $200 million [29][30] Question: Darden exposure and acquisition strategy - Management confirmed that while they have diversified Darden exposure, they will not hesitate to acquire Darden-related assets if the pricing is favorable [31][32] Question: Deal flow and competitive landscape - Management noted that deal flow has been consistent, but pricing remains a key factor in determining acquisition activity [48][49] Question: Future of veterinary retail property acquisitions - Management expressed interest in the veterinary retail sector, indicating it is a space they are comfortable exploring further [61]

Group 1 - Schaeffer's Investment Research celebrates its 44th anniversary and expresses gratitude to subscribers by releasing a free report on top stock picks for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Brinker International Inc (NYSE:EAT), the parent company of Chili's, has seen a strong performance with a year-to-date increase of over 37% [2] - The stock broke above resistance levels in the $168-170 range in late May and successfully retested this area in early June [2] Group 3 - Despite the strong technical performance, short positions in EAT have increased by 41% since mid-February, with 12.9% of the stock's float currently sold short [3] - There is potential for bullish sentiment as 14 out of 18 analysts covering Brinker International stock have a "hold" or worse rating [3]

Group 1 - The article expresses a bullish outlook on Brinker International (EAT) due to significant fundamental improvements driven by effective execution and growth in its value-focused Chili's brand [1] - The author emphasizes a value-focused investment strategy, highlighting a preference for stocks that are undervalued and have near-term catalysts [1] - The investment horizon mentioned ranges from one quarter to two years, indicating a medium-term investment approach [1] Group 2 - The author has over three years of active investing experience and has worked as a buy-side analyst at a boutique research firm and family offices [1]

Group 1 - The quick-service fast food industry is viewed as a potential safe haven during economic downturns and high inflation due to local sourcing of ingredients, which may mitigate the impact of tariffs [1] - Observing megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and investment opportunities, although identifying these trends can be challenging [1] - The importance of fundamentals, quality of leadership, and product pipeline is emphasized for uncovering investment opportunities, alongside an interest in macrotrends and emerging technologies [1] Group 2 - The focus has been on marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, with experience in evaluating startups and emerging industries/technologies [1] - The integration of personal interests in megatrends and technological developments with a strong emphasis on fundamentals and technical analysis is highlighted as crucial for investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International's stock price fell nearly 17% over the past week due to a quarterly earnings report that did not meet investor expectations, compounded by several analyst price target cuts [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, Brinker reported revenue of just under $1.43 billion, marking a 27% year-over-year increase and surpassing the average analyst estimate of $1.37 billion [2]. - The company's GAAP net income more than doubled to $119 million, while non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.66 from $1.24, exceeding the consensus projection of $2.49 [4]. Market Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the impact of the current trade war on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding nonessential spending like restaurant meals, which are often the first to be cut from household budgets during economic tightening [5]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Barclays have reduced their price targets for Brinker, with Wells Fargo lowering its target to $150 from $165 and Barclays to $155 from $165, while both maintained hold recommendations [6]. Growth Potential - Despite current market concerns, Brinker has demonstrated impressive growth in a challenging restaurant industry, suggesting that it has the potential to survive and thrive during economic downturns [7].

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International, Inc. is expected to report strong earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with significant year-over-year growth in both earnings per share and revenue, driven by various operational improvements and strategic initiatives [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brinker's Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings per share is $2.48, reflecting a 100% increase year-over-year [2] - Revenue is estimated at $1.36 billion, indicating a 21.7% rise from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate has seen a 1% upward revision in the past 30 days [2] Earnings Surprise History - Brinker has beaten the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 24.7% [3][4] Earnings Whispers - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.27%, which, combined with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggests a favorable outlook for an earnings beat [5] Factors Influencing Performance - Increased customer traffic due to sales-building initiatives, menu streamlining, and enhanced food presentation are expected to positively impact performance [6] - Digitalization efforts and targeted advertising campaigns are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth, with a predicted 23% year-over-year increase in comparable sales [7] Revenue Growth Projections - Chili's revenues are projected to grow 21.7% year-over-year to $1.21 billion, while Maggiano's revenues are expected to rise 3.8% to $125.3 million [8] Cost Considerations - Total restaurant costs are predicted to increase by 15.4% year-over-year, influenced by rising labor costs and inflationary pressures [9] Stock Performance - Brinker shares have increased by 222.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average of 0.4% [10] - Despite this growth, the stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 17.25X, which is lower than the industry average [13] Investment Sentiment - The stock's rally reflects strong earnings momentum and successful brand initiatives, although challenges related to consumer spending and inflation remain [15] - Current investors may benefit from holding the stock for long-term gains, while new investors are advised to wait for clearer signals post-earnings [16]