Lumentum Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Lumentum is primarily an infrastructure provider focused on data centers, offering semiconductor components and systems to hyperscalers and data center operators [5][6][10] Core Business Segments - **Lasers and Transceivers**: Lumentum specializes in two main types of lasers used in data centers: Continuous Wave (CW) lasers and Externally Modulated Lasers (EMLs). The company predominantly manufactures EMLs, holding approximately 50% to 60% of the global EML market [9][10] - **Emerging Technologies**: The company is also exploring ultra-high power lasers for scale-up and scale-out applications within data centers [10] Market Dynamics - **Demand vs. Supply**: Lumentum is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, estimating to be 30% behind demand by mid-2026 despite plans to increase capacity by 40% [18][19] - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is virtualizing its indium phosphide fabs to optimize production and meet increasing demand [20][21] Product Development and Trends - **200 Gig EMLs**: The company anticipates that 200 gig EMLs will constitute 10% of volumes in Q1 2026, increasing to 25% by Q4 2026, which will positively impact revenue and margins [22][25] - **Optical Circuit Switches (OCS)**: Lumentum sees significant growth potential in the OCS market, with expectations to grow from $10 million in Q1 to $100 million by Q4 2026 [38][40] Competitive Landscape - **Vertical Integration Risks**: While competitors are exploring vertical integration, Lumentum has opted to focus on components rather than integrated modules, which may mitigate risks associated with competition [16][17] - **Co-Packaged Optics**: The company views co-packaged optics as a growth opportunity, with expectations for material revenue contributions starting in the latter half of 2026 [46][50] Future Outlook - **Growth Drivers**: Lumentum anticipates strong contributions from OCS, scale-out, and scale-up optics in 2026, which are not yet reflected in current financial projections [64][65] - **Market Position**: The company believes its core business, particularly in EMLs and emerging technologies, positions it well for future growth, with optimism about the optics market resurgence [63][66] Key Takeaways - Lumentum is strategically positioned in the data center infrastructure market, focusing on lasers and transceivers, with a strong emphasis on EMLs - The company is addressing supply chain challenges while expanding capacity to meet growing demand - Future growth is expected from new product developments and market opportunities, particularly in OCS and co-packaged optics, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the coming years [64][65]

Core Insights - Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) and Coherent Corp. (COHR) are significant players in the AI and data infrastructure sectors [1] Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) - Palantir specializes in enterprise-level AI software, focusing on data integration, large-scale analytics, and decision-making platforms [2] - The company's core platforms, including Palantir Gotham, Foundry, and Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), enable organizations to leverage data for real-time decision-making [2] - In Q2 2025, U.S. commercial revenues increased by 93% to $306 million, while U.S. government business rose by 53% to $426 million, indicating strong growth [4] - AIP allows clients to integrate autonomous AI agents into workflows, enhancing decision-making speed and productivity [5] - AIP bootcamps have accelerated client adoption, reducing time-to-value and receiving positive feedback for user-friendliness and scalability [6] - Total U.S. commercial contract value grew by 222% year-over-year in Q2, with remaining deal value increasing by 145% to $2.79 billion [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PLTR indicates a projected sales growth of approximately 46% and EPS growth of 59% year-over-year [16] Coherent Corp. (COHR) - Coherent reported a 51% revenue increase for fiscal 2025, driven by the demand for AI infrastructure in data centers and communications [8] - The data center segment alone surged by 61%, reflecting the global demand for high-bandwidth optical solutions [8] - Coherent's strategy includes ramping up new products, such as 1.6T transceivers, which are expected to significantly contribute to revenue in fiscal 2026 [9] - The company has expanded its indium phosphide (InP) capacity by 3X year-over-year, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [10] - Coherent's revenues in communications rose by 42% year-over-year in Q4 fiscal 2025, driven by the adoption of high-speed coherent transceivers [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COHR indicates a projected sales growth of about 9% year-over-year and EPS growth of 29% [19] Valuation Comparison - COHR is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 18.93X, below its 12-month median of 28.04X, suggesting potential undervaluation [23] - In contrast, PLTR has a much higher forward P/E ratio of 202.65X, although still below its median of 267.56X [23] Investment Outlook - Palantir's rapid revenue growth and expanding U.S. commercial contracts position it favorably for near-term upside in the AI sector [24] - Coherent, while essential for AI hardware infrastructure, exhibits steadier growth that is more dependent on hardware cycles [24]