炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|阎贵成 杨伟松 刘永旭 汪洁 曹添雨 朱源哲 随着GPU和ASIC的快速升级迭代，算力性能持续提升，同时对于数据传输需求也大幅增长。在AI数据 中心中，越来越多的客户倾向于选择更大带宽的网络硬件。带宽越大，单位bit传输的成本更低、功耗 更低及尺寸更小。800G光模块的高增速已经能够反映出AI对于带宽迫切的需求。我们认为，2026年， 800G光模块需求预计将继续保持高速增长态势，而1.6T的出货规模也将大幅增长，3.2T光模块的研发也 正式开始布局。 据中信建投通信团队对于通信行业各子板块的划分，通信各子板块中，2025Q1-Q3营收同比增速前三位 依次是：光器件/光模块（662亿元，同比增长65%）、连接器（100亿元，同比增长19%）、ICT设备 （2313亿元，同比增长15%），基本都因为AI带动。2025Q1-Q3营收同比增速后三位依次是：工业互联 网（78亿元，同比下降26%）、智能卡（31亿元，同比下降21%）、智能网关（83亿元，同比下降 12%）。 各子板块中，2025Q1-Q3归母净利润同比增速 ...

Lumentum Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Lumentum is primarily an infrastructure provider focused on data centers, offering semiconductor components and systems to hyperscalers and data center operators [5][6][10] Core Business Segments - **Lasers and Transceivers**: Lumentum specializes in two main types of lasers used in data centers: Continuous Wave (CW) lasers and Externally Modulated Lasers (EMLs). The company predominantly manufactures EMLs, holding approximately 50% to 60% of the global EML market [9][10] - **Emerging Technologies**: The company is also exploring ultra-high power lasers for scale-up and scale-out applications within data centers [10] Market Dynamics - **Demand vs. Supply**: Lumentum is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, estimating to be 30% behind demand by mid-2026 despite plans to increase capacity by 40% [18][19] - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is virtualizing its indium phosphide fabs to optimize production and meet increasing demand [20][21] Product Development and Trends - **200 Gig EMLs**: The company anticipates that 200 gig EMLs will constitute 10% of volumes in Q1 2026, increasing to 25% by Q4 2026, which will positively impact revenue and margins [22][25] - **Optical Circuit Switches (OCS)**: Lumentum sees significant growth potential in the OCS market, with expectations to grow from $10 million in Q1 to $100 million by Q4 2026 [38][40] Competitive Landscape - **Vertical Integration Risks**: While competitors are exploring vertical integration, Lumentum has opted to focus on components rather than integrated modules, which may mitigate risks associated with competition [16][17] - **Co-Packaged Optics**: The company views co-packaged optics as a growth opportunity, with expectations for material revenue contributions starting in the latter half of 2026 [46][50] Future Outlook - **Growth Drivers**: Lumentum anticipates strong contributions from OCS, scale-out, and scale-up optics in 2026, which are not yet reflected in current financial projections [64][65] - **Market Position**: The company believes its core business, particularly in EMLs and emerging technologies, positions it well for future growth, with optimism about the optics market resurgence [63][66] Key Takeaways - Lumentum is strategically positioned in the data center infrastructure market, focusing on lasers and transceivers, with a strong emphasis on EMLs - The company is addressing supply chain challenges while expanding capacity to meet growing demand - Future growth is expected from new product developments and market opportunities, particularly in OCS and co-packaged optics, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the coming years [64][65]

Core Viewpoint - The 26th China International Optoelectronic Expo highlights the growing importance of optical modules driven by AI computing power, with significant participation from various companies in the optical communication sector [1][6][18]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The expo showcased a variety of optical/electrical chips, optical devices, optical modules, and fiber/cables, indicating a strong market interest in optical modules as a key component in AI infrastructure [1][6]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards 800G and 1.6T optical modules, with expectations that 800G will dominate the market in the near term, while 1.6T products are beginning to see production and deployment [11][12][20]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas markets, particularly the U.S., due to higher demand and better pricing compared to the domestic market, which is characterized by intense competition and price wars [12][13][14]. Group 2: Company Participation - Numerous listed companies participated in the expo, including NewEase, Guangxun Technology, and others, showcasing their latest products and innovations in optical communication [2][4]. - EnDatong, a key supplier for Oracle, attracted significant attention at the expo, highlighting its role in the optical module supply chain [1][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The optical communication industry is closely monitoring the evolution of AI infrastructure, with discussions around Scale-out and Scale-up architectures for AI computing clusters [15][16]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating that the average number of 800G optical modules required per GPU will double by 2026 [20]. - Concerns about potential AI bubbles exist, with industry professionals advocating for a more cautious approach to expansion and production in light of the current market dynamics [17][22].