Company Overview - The Mosaic Company (MOS) was founded in 1987 and specializes in producing and marketing concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, with a market capitalization of $8.4 billion [1] Earnings Expectations - The company is set to release its Q4 2025 earnings report on February 24, with analysts expecting an EPS of $0.48, reflecting a 6.7% increase from $0.45 in the same quarter last year [2] - For the current fiscal year, analysts project an EPS of $2.46, which is a 24.2% increase from $1.98 in fiscal 2024, but anticipate a decline of approximately 15.9% year-over-year to $2.07 in fiscal 2026 [3] Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, MOS stock has slightly declined, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which rose by 13.3%, and the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF, which returned 9.1% during the same period [4] Recent Developments - On January 16, shares of Mosaic Company fell by 4.5% following a weak preliminary earnings snapshot for Q4 2025, with expectations of a 20% decrease in North American phosphate market shipments compared to the previous year [5] - The demand for potash was negatively impacted by ongoing pressure on grower economics and early winter weather, leading to a negative market reaction [5] Analyst Ratings - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for MOS, with 7 out of 18 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" and 11 advising a "Hold" [6] - The average analyst price target for MOS is $32, suggesting an upside potential of 18.4% from current levels [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is considered a potentially undervalued stock with mixed analyst sentiment, indicating both buy and hold recommendations from analysts [1][2]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - As of December 26, 57% of analysts recommend a Buy rating for The Mosaic Company, while 43% suggest holding the stock [1]. - Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank reaffirmed a 'Hold' rating with a price target of $36, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 48% [1]. - Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho reduced the price target from $31 to $28, maintaining a 'Neutral' rating, which indicates a potential upside of 15% [2]. Market Influences - Mizuho noted that China's increased exports are impacting the basic chemical markets, predicting a weak start for the March quarter similar to the December quarter [4]. - The Mosaic Company has experienced a decline of nearly 2.60% since the beginning of the month [4]. Dividend Information - On December 19, The Mosaic Company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share, translating to a forward annual yield of 3.62% [5]. - The company specializes in concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients and operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes [5].

Group 1: Ariel Focus Fund Performance - The Ariel Focus Fund increased by 20.76% in Q3 2025, outperforming the Russell 1000 Value Index which gained 5.33% and the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.12% [1] - The significant increase in US equities was driven by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, strong corporate earnings growth, and broadening market participation [1] Group 2: The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Overview - The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, with a market capitalization of $8.161 billion as of November 11, 2025 [2] - The stock experienced a one-month return of -13.90% and a 52-week loss of 1.80% [2] Group 3: Performance Analysis of The Mosaic Company - The Mosaic Company was the biggest detractor from the fund's performance due to an earnings miss following a strong share price run, with higher potash and phosphate prices offset by lower volumes and rising production costs [3] - Despite near-term pressures, phosphate markets are expected to remain tight through 2025 due to limited new supply, and the company is focused on cost discipline, free cash flow generation, and maintaining its investment-grade credit profile [3] Group 4: Financial Performance of The Mosaic Company - In Q3 2025, The Mosaic Company's net income increased to $411 million compared to $122 million in Q3 2024 [4] - The company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 54 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q2 2025, up from 48 in the previous quarter [4]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital upgraded The Mosaic Company's stock from "Sector Perform" to "Outperform," indicating a positive outlook on the company's future performance [1][6] Financial Performance - Mosaic reported third-quarter earnings of $1.04 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.98 per share, and showing a significant increase from $0.34 per share in the same quarter last year, resulting in an earnings surprise of +6.12% [2][6] - The company generated $3.45 billion in revenue for the quarter ending September 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.40%, and representing a notable rise from $2.81 billion reported a year ago [3][6] Stock Performance - The current stock price of $26.55 reflects a decrease of 2.60%, equivalent to a drop of $0.71, with a trading range for the day between $26.24 and $26.82 [4] - Over the past year, the stock has reached a high of $38.23 and a low of $22.36, with a market capitalization of approximately $8.43 billion and a trading volume of 8,021,431 shares [4] Future Insights - A fireside chat scheduled for November 5th will provide investors and analysts with further insights into Mosaic's performance and future plans, accessible via the company's website [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company (MOS) has experienced underperformance in its stock compared to the broader market and key agricultural ETFs, despite being a significant player in the phosphate and potash nutrient sector [2][3]. Company Overview - The Mosaic Company, based in Tampa, Florida, specializes in manufacturing and distributing concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, with a market cap of $8.7 billion [1]. - The company operates mines producing essential agricultural products, including diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate, and also manufactures phosphate-based animal feed additives [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past year, MOS shares have gained only 1.4%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 19.6% [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance shows MOS stock up 10.9%, compared to a 16.5% rise in the S&P 500 [2]. Earnings Report - On August 5, MOS reported Q2 results, with an adjusted EPS of $0.51, missing Wall Street expectations of $0.67, and revenue of $3 billion, falling short of forecasts of $3.1 billion [4]. - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts expect MOS' EPS to grow by 48% to $2.93 on a diluted basis [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among 17 analysts covering MOS, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with nine "Strong Buy" ratings and eight "Holds" [5]. - Recent changes in analyst sentiment show a decrease in bullishness, with 11 analysts previously suggesting a "Strong Buy" [6]. - Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. maintains an "Outperform" rating on MOS, lowering the price target to $40, indicating a potential upside of 46.7% from current levels [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company is a key player in the agricultural sector, focusing on concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, despite facing competition from other fertilizer producers [1] Financial Performance Expectations - Mosaic is expected to release its third-quarter earnings on November 4, 2025, with analysts predicting an EPS of $0.96 and revenue of $3.53 billion, benefiting from increased fertilizer prices and cost-reduction strategies [2] - The company has experienced operational challenges that may have impacted its third-quarter volumes [2] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - Mosaic's shares have risen by 7.1% over the past year, but this is below the Zacks Fertilizers industry's increase of 16.8% [3] - The company has faced a negative earnings surprise of 13.7% on average over the last four quarters, including a significant 23.9% negative surprise in the most recent quarter [3] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Mosaic's P/E ratio stands at 9.24, indicating moderate market valuation, while its price-to-sales ratio of 0.77 shows revenue valued at less than one times its market capitalization [4] - The enterprise value to sales ratio is 1.15, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 10.97, reflecting the company's total valuation and cash flow efficiency [4] - The earnings yield of 10.83% suggests a substantial return on earnings relative to its share price [5] - The company maintains a moderate debt level with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, and a current ratio of 1.14 indicates reasonable liquidity to cover short-term liabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company is a significant player in the agricultural sector, producing concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, but faces challenges reflected in recent stock performance and a downgrade by Scotiabank [1][5]. Company Overview - Mosaic is a leading producer and marketer of crop nutrients essential for global agriculture [1]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $10.61 billion, indicating its substantial presence in the industry [3][5]. - The stock price was $33.44 at the time of the downgrade by Scotiabank [1][5]. Stock Performance - Mosaic's stock has recently declined by 3.88%, equating to a $1.35 drop, with current prices ranging from $33.25 to $35.17 [2][5]. - Over the past year, the stock has fluctuated between a high of $38.23 and a low of $22.36, showcasing volatility in the agricultural sector [2]. Trading Activity - The trading volume for Mosaic is 4.13 million shares, indicating sustained investor interest despite recent challenges [3][5]. Future Expectations - The company has released preliminary segment volumes for the third quarter of 2025 and plans to discuss expectations and guidance for the fourth quarter and the full year during its upcoming earnings release [4].