1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate has likely reached its peak as Maersk and MSC have kept their freight rates unchanged in the second half of July. The EC2510 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [4][5]. - The supply of the US - bound routes has rapidly recovered, and the freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West coasts of the US have dropped from their highs. The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route are still uncertain as to when they will peak, and the settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of July 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 83,240 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 39,157 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1338.70, 1172.90, 1319.90, 1896.90, 1363.90, and 1538.70 respectively [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for the 29th week from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1785/2990. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27th was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1st was 2123.24 points [1][6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July was 261,900 TEU, and in August it was 269,900 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events in Israel may affect the shipping market. The supply and demand of the US - bound routes have both increased, and the capacity has been rapidly restored. The congestion situation of container ships globally and the passage of ships through major canals such as the Suez, Panama, and around the Cape of Good Hope are also factors affecting the supply chain [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly after the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The industrial production index, import and export data, consumer confidence index, and retail sales data of the EU 27 countries are important factors affecting the demand for shipping [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **container shipping industry**, particularly the trade dynamics between **China and the US** in light of recent tariff changes and market conditions. Core Insights 1. **Container Throughput Growth**: - China's total container throughput increased by **8% YoY** and containership departures rose by **9% YoY**, indicating resilience in the Chinese supply chain despite a temporary decline due to tariffs [1][11][12]. 2. **Tariff Deal Impact**: - The recent US-China tariff deal, which includes a **90-day pause** on retaliatory tariffs effective from May 14, is expected to positively influence container shipping rates and earnings [3][10]. 3. **Restocking Activity**: - There has been a recovery in containership departures from China to the US, attributed to restocking activities by US retailers. Departures had previously bottomed out with a **46% decline** from April peak levels but improved to a **31% decline** by May 11 [2][11][20]. 4. **Freight Rate Expectations**: - Anticipated strong demand in the next 90 days is driven by: - Restocking for consumed inventory in the US. - Overlap with the typical Q3 peak season. - Frontloading ahead of the tariff deadline [7][12]. - Shipping lines, including Maersk, have announced plans for spot rate hikes in response to this demand increase [12]. 5. **Port Congestion Concerns**: - The potential for increased port congestion at US western ports is highlighted, particularly as importers may prefer to unload cargo close to the tariff deadline [4][12]. 6. **Market Forecasts**: - The National Retail Federation (NRF) has revised its US container import forecast, indicating a **13%-21% YoY decline** for May and June, which is an improvement from previous forecasts [2][22][59]. Additional Important Insights - **Shipping Capacity**: - Supply on transpacific routes has been reduced by **30%** since mid-April due to redeployment and blank sailings, making it challenging to recover capacity quickly [3][10]. - **Regional Performance**: - Cargo volumes and freight rates on China-SEA routes are steadily increasing, with the Drewry Intra-Asia Container Index rising by **17%** since the new tariffs were implemented [2][11]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Among transportation sector players, **COSCO Shipping Holdings** is identified as potentially benefiting the most from the current market dynamics [8]. - **Long-term Trends**: - Despite the short-term challenges posed by tariffs, the overall outlook for container shipping remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of demand recovery and rate increases in the coming months [12][57]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations.

Container Shipping Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping industry and major ocean carriers including Maersk, COSCO, MOL, and others, providing insights into performance, market strategies, and outlooks as of April 28, 2025 [1][2]. Key Insights Earnings Outlook - The container sector is expected to experience more moderate earnings in 2025 following an exceptional 2024, with freight rates showing a significant pullback due to seasonality and buyer uncertainty [2][3]. - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has dropped 45% year-to-date but remains elevated at 1,350, well above the pre-COVID average of just below 1,000, indicating sustained pricing power for liners [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The ongoing US-China trade war and tariff uncertainties are impacting the sector, leading to reduced spot activity and higher blank sailings [3][4]. - Diversions in the Red Sea have significantly affected capacity, with 90% of normal traffic bypassing the region, resulting in an estimated 12% reduction in global vessel availability [4]. Capacity and Utilization - Capacity utilization remains elevated at 85% due to ongoing disruptions, compared to 73% without these issues. The report suggests that the Red Sea situation is critical for maintaining a balanced market [4][64]. - The containership newbuilding orderbook has increased to 28.3% of the existing fleet, with expected capacity growth of 6.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, but significant deliveries are anticipated through 2028 [64]. Freight Rate Trends - Freight rates have found a near-term floor after a three-month pullback, with the SCFI averaging 1,690 in 2025, down from 1,970 in the same period of 2024 [11]. - Blank sailings have been utilized to support freight rates, with liners blanking 10% of capacity in April 2025, up from 7% in April 2024 [24]. Global Trade Volumes - Container volumes increased by 6.5% in 2024, recovering from declines in previous years, but are now moderating as pre-buying effects wane [39]. - US inventories have risen due to pre-buying, but the pace is lower than during the 2021/2022 period, indicating a more cautious approach from buyers [50]. Additional Considerations - The report indicates that the sector's fortunes are heavily dependent on developments in the Red Sea, which could significantly alter capacity utilization rates if the situation stabilizes [64]. - Management commentary during the upcoming earnings season is expected to be cautious, potentially leading to softer guidance revisions, which may present buying opportunities as the sector approaches its seasonally stronger period [4]. Conclusion - The container shipping industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by moderating earnings, significant geopolitical influences, and evolving market dynamics. The focus on capacity management and strategic diversions will be crucial for maintaining profitability in the near term.