A Chinese smelter and Antofagasta agreed to set fees for processing copper concentrate at a record low for 2026, after tough negotiations that reflected a market facing abundant refining capacity but tight global ore supplies https://t.co/UA76YZRC1L ...

India-Peru copper investment is gathering momentum with conglomerate Adani and miner Hindalco Industries exploring opportunities in Peru's copper sector by acquiring stakes in existing mines or via joint ventures (JV), reported Reuters. The move comes as India, the world's second-largest importer of refined copper, seeks to secure its copper supply chains amid rising demand and potential supply constraints. Peru, the world's third-largest copper producer, is actively seeking new investment while negotiat ...

Chile’s state-run copper producer Codelco and Swiss commodities trader and miner Glencore have entered into a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop a copper smelter project in the Antofagasta region of Chile. The partnership aims to enhance local copper processing capacity, with Codelco supplying copper concentrate and Glencore leading the development of a new smelter. The agreement stipulates that Codelco will provide up to 800,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of copper concentrate to Glencore for at l ...

Core Viewpoint - Aurubis, Europe's largest copper smelter, is willing to reject low offers for copper concentrate amid tense negotiations for annual contracts, with processing fees at record negative levels [1] Group 1: Company Position - Aurubis COO Tim Kurth stated that the company has even turned down poor agreements this year, emphasizing a firm stance against unfavorable terms [1] - The company asserts that it can choose to refuse contracts that are excessively extreme or negative, highlighting a strong negotiating position [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The annual negotiations are currently tense, with various stakeholders including miners, smelters, and traders gathering in Shanghai to discuss contracts [1] - Kurth noted that benchmark prices have become less important compared to other factors like logistics and financing, although they cannot be completely disregarded [1]

Core Insights - Big Ridge Gold Corp. has made significant progress in 2025, including increasing its ownership of the Hope Brook Gold Project to 100% and engaging SGS Geological Services for a Preliminary Economic Assessment [3][4][6] - The company is also preparing concentrate samples for marketing and potential offtake agreements, while its partner Caprock Mining has initiated a Phase I drill program at the Destiny Gold Project [3][7] Hope Brook Gold Project - The Hope Brook Gold Project has a historical production of approximately 750,000 ounces of gold from 1987 to 1997, with a flotation circuit producing a concentrate of about 22% Cu and 34.28 g/t Au [4][11] - The project hosts an Indicated gold resource of 16,190,000 tonnes grading 2.32 grams per tonne for a total of 1.2 million ounces, and Inferred resources of 2,215,000 tonnes grading 3.25 grams per tonne for 231,000 ounces [12] - The company expects positive economics from the Preliminary Economic Assessment due to the high-grade open pit copper and gold resource and strategic location on tidewater, with completion anticipated in the first half of 2026 [4][5] Metallurgical Test Work - Recent metallurgical test work has produced high-grade Cu-Au concentrates ranging from 26% to 30% Cu with 270 to 539 g/t Au, indicating strong potential for marketing and partnerships [5] - The strategic location of the Hope Brook project on tidewater is expected to generate notable interest from potential partners due to current negative smelter treatment and refining charges [5] Destiny Gold Project - Caprock Mining has commenced a Phase I drill program at the Destiny Gold Project, targeting high-grade mineralization identified in historical drill holes with gold grades as high as 26 g/t Au [7] - Big Ridge owns 18 million shares of Caprock Mining and anticipates first anniversary payments under the option agreement, consisting of $100,000 in cash and common shares valued at $250,000 by December 31, 2025 [8]

Core Insights - Kutch Copper Ltd.'s copper smelter in Gujarat, which has a capacity of 500,000 tons per year, is currently operating at a fraction of its required raw material, importing only about 147,000 tons of copper concentrate in the 10 months to October, significantly below the 1.6 million tons needed for full operation [1][8] - The global supply squeeze has been exacerbated by mine disruptions at major producers, leading to record low treatment and refining charges, indicating that smelters are accepting tighter margins to secure material [6][8] - The slow start of Kutch Copper highlights the challenges India faces in increasing its metals self-reliance, as demand from infrastructure, power, and construction sectors outpaces processing capacity and domestic ore reserves [8] Company-Specific Insights - Kutch Copper plans to double its annual capacity to 1 million tons within four years, but tight supply conditions are expected to increase operational expenses and prolong the ramp-up process [6][8] - Adani's smelter is anticipated to be more efficient than many competitors, but it may operate at a loss in the short term as it ramps up production [7][8] - BHP Group has supplied 4,700 tons to the smelter, with additional shipments from Glencore Plc and Hudbay, indicating reliance on external suppliers for raw materials [7][8]

全球铜加工行业的定价机制正经历深刻变革，2026年的供应谈判在复杂的地缘政治环境与显著的市场供 需变化中展开。随着铜精矿加工费降至历史较低水平，甚至现货市场出现非常规报价，长期沿用的年度 基准定价体系正迎来重要转折点。 近期在上海举行的行业会议成为本年度谈判的关键时点，市场普遍持审慎态度。在经历近一年的加工和 精炼费用（TC/RCs）明显下调后，矿业公司预计将借助当前市场条件，推动更为适应现状的供应协 议。这一变化不仅影响产业链各方的协商方式，也促使全球冶炼格局出现调整：中国冶炼产能持续增 长，而其他地区的冶炼企业则面临经营压力。 当前谈判的核心议题在于长期使用的基准体系能否继续适用。分析显示，由于现货市场与长期协议条款 之间存在显著差异，由主要矿商与中国冶炼厂商达成协议、其他地区参照执行的定价模式可能出现调 整。市场正呈现出向更多双边协议、设定价格区间，甚至探索周期性定价的方向发展。 Freeport-McMoRan Inc. 等主要矿商已表示正在考虑多种合作方案，同时关注冶炼厂商的运营状况。 CRU Group分析师Craig Lang指出，年度基准体系预计将迎来"进一步调整"，未来的谈判形式可能更趋 多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lifting of liquidity concerns has led to a warming of market sentiment, and the expectation of loose liquidity will open up an upward space for copper prices again. After the decline in copper prices, social inventories have decreased, but insufficient recovery in downstream demand restricts the short - term upward space for copper prices. The expectation of copper ore shortage still benefits copper prices in the medium - to - long term. In the long run, the narrative of copper ore shortage will return. Recently, market risk appetite has improved, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect, and insufficient recovery in downstream demand will cause short - term copper prices to mainly fluctuate and adjust. After the macro - narrative stabilizes, the strategy is to buy on dips when copper prices are in a volatile state [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate increased by 0.26% week - on - week to - 42.04 dollars/ton due to the shutdown of PT Amman smelter and the increase in short - term copper concentrate circulation. The refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed by 17.05% to 3315 yuan/ton as copper prices fell and scrap copper traders' willingness to sell decreased. The southern crude copper processing fee increased by 9.09% to 1200 yuan/ton as some enterprises switched to anode plate production. The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all increased, with increases of 2.55%, 20.92%, and 4.36% respectively, due to the decline in copper prices stimulating downstream demand [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The global visible inventory increased by 5.23% to 75.97 million tons, mainly due to the increase in COMEX and LME inventories. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons as downstream purchasing increased. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly by 0.34% to 8.82 million tons, with overall balanced supply and demand. The SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36% to 124.42 million tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 2.00% to 13.63 million tons due to previous exports [8]. - **Profit Data**: The spot and long - term comprehensive smelting profits decreased by 1.11% and 24.21% respectively, with the short - term loss intensifying. The import profit increased by 30.59% to - 540 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Strategy**: The US government shutdown caused liquidity concerns, but the recent agreement to end the shutdown has lifted these concerns, warming market sentiment. Fundamentally, short - term copper price increases are restricted by insufficient downstream demand recovery, while long - term copper prices are supported by the expectation of copper ore shortage. The short - term strategy is for copper prices to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premiums and discounts, the spread between the current and three - month contracts of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid, and the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio and related spreads [13][16][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot and long - term, as well as the import and export profits of copper [20][21][23]. - **Supply**: It includes data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, electrolytic copper production, imports, and total supply [27][31]. - **Demand**: It covers the demand from various sectors such as copper rods, wire and cable, power grids, air conditioners, copper strips, automobiles, and real estate, including operating rates, inventory levels, and production and sales data [33][35][44][46][52][55]. - **Inventory**: Data on various copper inventories, including Chinese electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX and LME electrolytic copper inventories, and global refined copper inventory, are provided [60]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32% and shows a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [70].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $177 million, a $14 million increase compared to Q2, driven by a 24% increase in copper concentrate sales at Tucumã and stronger copper and gold prices [17] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $77.1 million in Q3, with adjusted net income attributable to owners of the company at $27.9 million, or $0.27 per share [17] - Liquidity position at quarter end was $111 million, including $66.3 million in cash and cash equivalents [18] - Net debt leverage ratio improved to 1.9 times at the end of Q3, down from 2.1 times in Q2 and 2.5 times at the end of 2022 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated copper production set a record in Q3, with significant contributions from Tucumã, which saw a nearly 20% increase for the second consecutive quarter [10] - At Caraíba, plant throughput levels reached a quarterly volume record, with a decline in grade as expected due to a strategic shift in ore sourcing [11] - Tucumã's production increased by 19% in Q3, driven by a ramp-up in throughput, while Xavantina's production rose by approximately 17% due to mechanization efforts [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to sell between 10,000 and 15,000 tons of gold concentrate during Q4 2025, with operating costs estimated at approximately $300-$500 per ounce of gold [5] - The average quarterly production of gold at Xavantina was 7,000 ounces in the first half of the year, with a production of nearly 7,000 ounces in October alone [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging its balance sheet and expects to accelerate this process through gold concentrate sales [6][18] - A significant emphasis is placed on operational excellence, health and safety, and optimizing production across all operations [9][10] - The company is also advancing long-term growth initiatives at Furnas, with ongoing drilling and technical work to support future development [15][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing transformation and improvements across operations, with expectations for Q4 to be the strongest production quarter of the year [10][12] - The company is addressing inflationary pressures in Brazil through various initiatives, including foreign exchange hedging [22][24] - Management highlighted the importance of mechanization and operational improvements in driving productivity and safety [41][46] Other Important Information - The company has commenced shipping gold concentrate, resulting in its first invoice, and expects to continue this momentum into Q4 [5][19] - A foreign exchange hedge program was in place with a total notional position of $290 million, resulting in a realized gain of $2 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: On Xavantina, regarding the remaining 80% of the gold concentrate that has not been sampled yet, what assumptions can be made? - Management indicated that while excitement exists about the potential volume, it is too early to provide specific estimates for the remaining concentrate [20][21] Question: Have there been any significant labor contractor inflation pressures in Brazil? - Management acknowledged inflationary pressures in Brazil but noted efforts to mitigate these through longer-term contracts and hedging strategies [22][24] Question: What is the timeline for sampling the remaining gold concentrate stockpile? - Management stated that the focus is on selling the current volume before continuing sampling, with updates expected quarterly [33][34] Question: How is the company addressing the tailings filtration circuit at Tucumã? - Management confirmed ongoing improvements and the addition of a mobile filter press to enhance capacity [36][37] Question: What are the expectations for mining rates and grades at Xavantina moving into next year? - Management highlighted significant increases in mining rates and grades due to mechanization, with expectations for continued high performance [41][44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing a tug-of-war between strong supply constraints and weak consumption realities, leading to expectations of high-level fluctuations in copper prices [1][9]. Group 2 - The global copper mining industry is entering a phase of chronic shortages, with Chile's copper production in September at 456,663 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [2]. - The International Copper Study Group forecasts a global copper mine shortage of approximately 150,000 tons in 2025, expanding to 300,000 tons in 2026, indicating a shift towards a chronic supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3 - China's electrolytic copper production in October was 1.0921 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.94% but a year-on-year increase of 9.63% [3]. - In November, the planned maintenance of smelters is expected to reduce production by 48,000 tons, while the copper price environment is favoring increased operating rates for plants using scrap copper or anode copper as raw materials [3]. Group 4 - Global copper inventories have shown a total increase, with a total of 573,400 tons as of October 31, up by 41,000 tons from the end of September, but with significant geographical disparities [4]. - The COMEX warehouse holds over 40% of visible global copper inventory, while LME copper stocks have decreased to 134,600 tons after a recent depletion cycle [4]. Group 5 - Domestic copper social inventory as of November 3 was 200,100 tons, with a weekly increase of 15,600 tons, indicating a slight increase in supply despite ongoing maintenance and production cuts [6]. Group 6 - Domestic power grid investment has shifted from rapid growth to high-quality development, with fixed asset investments exceeding 420 billion yuan in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [8]. - The operating rate of domestic copper cable enterprises was 60.8%, reflecting a decrease due to weak demand and high copper prices, with expectations of a slight recovery in the coming week [8]. Group 7 - The copper market is characterized by a conflict between tight supply expectations and weak demand, with high copper prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [9].