Core Viewpoint - Ivanhoe Mines has reported strong production results for 2025 from its Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex and Kipushi zinc mine, achieving or exceeding production guidance for both copper and zinc, with significant operational advancements expected in 2026. Group 1: Kamoa-Kakula Copper Production - Kamoa-Kakula produced 388,838 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2025, achieving guidance, with production supported by record output from the Phase 3 concentrator [1][2] - The Phase 3 concentrator milled 6.4 million tonnes of ore in 2025, approximately 30% above its design capacity, achieving a record throughput and recovery rate [6] - The smelter has begun producing 99.7%-pure copper anodes, averaging 500 tonnes per day, with first exports expected imminently [8][9] Group 2: Kipushi Zinc Production - Kipushi produced a record 203,168 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in 2025, achieving guidance, including a quarterly record of 61,444 tonnes in Q4 2025 [25][29] - The improvement in zinc production was attributed to the completion of a debottlenecking program and enhanced power availability [25][28] - The 2026 production guidance for Kipushi is set at 240,000 to 290,000 tonnes of zinc [34] Group 3: Financial and Operational Outlook - Ivanhoe Mines will release its 2025 financial results on February 18, 2026, and host a conference call for investors on February 19 [40][41] - The company expects 2026 copper sales to be approximately 20,000 tonnes higher than production due to destocking of on-site inventory [10][11] - Kamoa-Kakula's margins are anticipated to expand as logistics costs decrease and revenues from high-strength sulphuric acid sales contribute positively [15][17]

A Chinese smelter and Antofagasta agreed to set fees for processing copper concentrate at a record low for 2026, after tough negotiations that reflected a market facing abundant refining capacity but tight global ore supplies https://t.co/UA76YZRC1L ...

Core Insights - India's investment in Peru's copper sector is being driven by conglomerate Adani and miner Hindalco Industries, focusing on acquiring stakes in existing mines or forming joint ventures [1] - Peru, as the third-largest copper producer, is actively seeking new investments while negotiating a free trade agreement with India [2] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Adani and Hindalco are in the initial stages of exploring investment opportunities in Peru's copper sector, with Adani having sent a delegation earlier this year [3] - The Indian government is encouraging domestic mining companies to invest abroad to secure copper supply chains, as outlined in a policy document released in July [3] Group 2: Copper Demand and Supply - India's copper imports increased by 4% to 1.2 million tonnes in the fiscal year ending March 2025, with demand projected to reach 3–3.3 million tonnes by 2030 and 8.9–9.8 million tonnes by 2047 [5] - According to the Ministry of Mines' Copper Vision Document 2025, India may need to source 91–97% of its copper concentrate requirements from overseas by 2047 [4] Group 3: Foreign Investment in Peru - In 2024, Peru produced approximately 2.7 million tonnes of copper and attracted $4.96 billion in foreign investment in the sector [2] - Ongoing discussions between India and Peru include a detailed chapter on copper in free trade negotiations to secure a fixed volume of copper concentrate [5]

Core Viewpoint - Codelco and Glencore have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop a copper smelter in Antofagasta, Chile, aiming to enhance local copper processing capacity and reduce reliance on foreign smelting [1][4]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Codelco will supply up to 800,000 tonnes per annum of copper concentrate to Glencore for a minimum of ten years, with a potential ten-year extension [2]. - The planned smelter will have a processing capacity of approximately 1.5 million tonnes per annum of concentrate [2][3]. - The investment required for the project is estimated between $1.5 billion and $2 billion [3]. Group 2: Project Timeline and Feasibility - Glencore will conduct a pre-feasibility study, with the aim to finalize the agreement in the first half of next year [3]. - Engineering studies for feasibility and permitting are expected to be completed by 2027, with construction anticipated to start in 2030 and operations beginning between 2032 and 2033 [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - Chile currently holds only 6% of global copper smelting capacity, with a significant portion of its copper being processed in China, which controls half of the world's smelting capacity [4]. - The Chilean government is working to expand local smelting infrastructure, including a $1.7 billion modernization project led by ENAMI [5]. - The Codelco-Glencore agreement aligns with national objectives to increase domestic smelting capacity [5]. Group 4: Glencore's Broader Strategy - Glencore plans to restart operations at its Alumbrera copper mine in Argentina by the end of next year, with production expected to commence by the first half of 2028 [5]. - Once operational, the Alumbrera mine is projected to produce approximately 75,000 tonnes of copper, 317,000 ounces of gold, and 1,000 tonnes of molybdenum over four years [6]. - Glencore aims to expand its annual copper production to around 1.6 million tonnes by 2035, reversing a multi-year decline in output [6].

Core Viewpoint - Aurubis, Europe's largest copper smelter, is willing to reject low offers for copper concentrate amid tense negotiations for annual contracts, with processing fees at record negative levels [1] Group 1: Company Position - Aurubis COO Tim Kurth stated that the company has even turned down poor agreements this year, emphasizing a firm stance against unfavorable terms [1] - The company asserts that it can choose to refuse contracts that are excessively extreme or negative, highlighting a strong negotiating position [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The annual negotiations are currently tense, with various stakeholders including miners, smelters, and traders gathering in Shanghai to discuss contracts [1] - Kurth noted that benchmark prices have become less important compared to other factors like logistics and financing, although they cannot be completely disregarded [1]

Core Insights - Big Ridge Gold Corp. has made significant progress in 2025, including increasing its ownership of the Hope Brook Gold Project to 100% and engaging SGS Geological Services for a Preliminary Economic Assessment [3][4][6] - The company is also preparing concentrate samples for marketing and potential offtake agreements, while its partner Caprock Mining has initiated a Phase I drill program at the Destiny Gold Project [3][7] Hope Brook Gold Project - The Hope Brook Gold Project has a historical production of approximately 750,000 ounces of gold from 1987 to 1997, with a flotation circuit producing a concentrate of about 22% Cu and 34.28 g/t Au [4][11] - The project hosts an Indicated gold resource of 16,190,000 tonnes grading 2.32 grams per tonne for a total of 1.2 million ounces, and Inferred resources of 2,215,000 tonnes grading 3.25 grams per tonne for 231,000 ounces [12] - The company expects positive economics from the Preliminary Economic Assessment due to the high-grade open pit copper and gold resource and strategic location on tidewater, with completion anticipated in the first half of 2026 [4][5] Metallurgical Test Work - Recent metallurgical test work has produced high-grade Cu-Au concentrates ranging from 26% to 30% Cu with 270 to 539 g/t Au, indicating strong potential for marketing and partnerships [5] - The strategic location of the Hope Brook project on tidewater is expected to generate notable interest from potential partners due to current negative smelter treatment and refining charges [5] Destiny Gold Project - Caprock Mining has commenced a Phase I drill program at the Destiny Gold Project, targeting high-grade mineralization identified in historical drill holes with gold grades as high as 26 g/t Au [7] - Big Ridge owns 18 million shares of Caprock Mining and anticipates first anniversary payments under the option agreement, consisting of $100,000 in cash and common shares valued at $250,000 by December 31, 2025 [8]

Core Insights - Kutch Copper Ltd.'s copper smelter in Gujarat, which has a capacity of 500,000 tons per year, is currently operating at a fraction of its required raw material, importing only about 147,000 tons of copper concentrate in the 10 months to October, significantly below the 1.6 million tons needed for full operation [1][8] - The global supply squeeze has been exacerbated by mine disruptions at major producers, leading to record low treatment and refining charges, indicating that smelters are accepting tighter margins to secure material [6][8] - The slow start of Kutch Copper highlights the challenges India faces in increasing its metals self-reliance, as demand from infrastructure, power, and construction sectors outpaces processing capacity and domestic ore reserves [8] Company-Specific Insights - Kutch Copper plans to double its annual capacity to 1 million tons within four years, but tight supply conditions are expected to increase operational expenses and prolong the ramp-up process [6][8] - Adani's smelter is anticipated to be more efficient than many competitors, but it may operate at a loss in the short term as it ramps up production [7][8] - BHP Group has supplied 4,700 tons to the smelter, with additional shipments from Glencore Plc and Hudbay, indicating reliance on external suppliers for raw materials [7][8]

Core Insights - The global copper processing industry's pricing mechanism is undergoing significant changes, with supply negotiations for 2026 taking place amid complex geopolitical conditions and notable market supply-demand shifts [1] - The long-standing annual benchmark pricing system is facing a critical turning point as copper concentrate processing fees have dropped to historically low levels, leading to unconventional pricing in the spot market [1] - The current negotiations reflect a cautious market sentiment, with mining companies aiming to establish supply agreements that better align with the current market conditions [1][3] Pricing System Adjustments - The copper processing fees have historically fluctuated with market supply and demand, but recent tightening of copper concentrate supply has prompted structural reevaluation within the industry [3] - Analysts indicate that the existing benchmark system is under new scrutiny due to the rapid growth of metal processing capacity outpacing mine output increases [3] - The disparity between long-term contract fees and spot market prices poses challenges to the stability of the benchmark system, with a focus on how Chinese smelters can secure copper concentrate supply through annual contracts [3] Operational Pressures on Overseas Smelters - Smelters outside of China are experiencing operational pressures, with industry organizations in Japan, South Korea, and Spain expressing concerns over current processing fee levels [4] - Japanese smelting companies are enhancing coordination to improve their negotiating positions, acknowledging a "significant change" in market conditions [4] - Some overseas capacities have begun to adjust, with companies like JX Advanced Metals Co. announcing production adjustment plans and Glencore Plc receiving support for its operations in Australia [4] Market Supply and Industry Outlook - Despite low processing fees, China's copper industry continues to grow, with refined copper production showing year-on-year increases as of October [5] - Chinese smelting companies are maintaining operations at current processing fee levels, partly due to favorable prices for refined copper and by-products like sulfuric acid [5] - In contrast, smelters in other regions face different market conditions, with challenges in securing raw materials due to fluctuations in global mine supply and increasing smelting capacity [5] Future Procurement Activities - Analysts predict that Chinese smelters will continue to seek raw material supplies within manageable cost ranges, with stable procurement activities expected next year due to the gradual commissioning of new capacities [6] - This situation further strengthens the position of miners in the 2026 negotiations, indicating that the global copper processing industry is entering a new phase of adjustment and adaptation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lifting of liquidity concerns has led to a warming of market sentiment, and the expectation of loose liquidity will open up an upward space for copper prices again. After the decline in copper prices, social inventories have decreased, but insufficient recovery in downstream demand restricts the short - term upward space for copper prices. The expectation of copper ore shortage still benefits copper prices in the medium - to - long term. In the long run, the narrative of copper ore shortage will return. Recently, market risk appetite has improved, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect, and insufficient recovery in downstream demand will cause short - term copper prices to mainly fluctuate and adjust. After the macro - narrative stabilizes, the strategy is to buy on dips when copper prices are in a volatile state [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Supply - side Data**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the spot TC of copper concentrate increased by 0.26% week - on - week to - 42.04 dollars/ton due to the shutdown of PT Amman smelter and the increase in short - term copper concentrate circulation. The refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed by 17.05% to 3315 yuan/ton as copper prices fell and scrap copper traders' willingness to sell decreased. The southern crude copper processing fee increased by 9.09% to 1200 yuan/ton as some enterprises switched to anode plate production. The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all increased, with increases of 2.55%, 20.92%, and 4.36% respectively, due to the decline in copper prices stimulating downstream demand [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The global visible inventory increased by 5.23% to 75.97 million tons, mainly due to the increase in COMEX and LME inventories. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons as downstream purchasing increased. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly by 0.34% to 8.82 million tons, with overall balanced supply and demand. The SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36% to 124.42 million tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 2.00% to 13.63 million tons due to previous exports [8]. - **Profit Data**: The spot and long - term comprehensive smelting profits decreased by 1.11% and 24.21% respectively, with the short - term loss intensifying. The import profit increased by 30.59% to - 540 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro and Strategy**: The US government shutdown caused liquidity concerns, but the recent agreement to end the shutdown has lifted these concerns, warming market sentiment. Fundamentally, short - term copper price increases are restricted by insufficient downstream demand recovery, while long - term copper prices are supported by the expectation of copper ore shortage. The short - term strategy is for copper prices to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The report presents data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premiums and discounts, the spread between the current and three - month contracts of Shanghai copper, the price of sulfuric acid, and the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio and related spreads [13][16][19]. - **Cost and Profit**: It shows the comprehensive profit of electrolytic copper (including by - product sulfuric acid), spot and long - term, as well as the import and export profits of copper [20][21][23]. - **Supply**: It includes data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, electrolytic copper production, imports, and total supply [27][31]. - **Demand**: It covers the demand from various sectors such as copper rods, wire and cable, power grids, air conditioners, copper strips, automobiles, and real estate, including operating rates, inventory levels, and production and sales data [33][35][44][46][52][55]. - **Inventory**: Data on various copper inventories, including Chinese electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory warrants, COMEX and LME electrolytic copper inventories, and global refined copper inventory, are provided [60]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - The CFTC non - commercial long - position ratio is 32% and shows a strengthening trend recently. The LME investment fund net long - position is 36768.23 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [70].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached $177 million, a $14 million increase compared to Q2, driven by a 24% increase in copper concentrate sales at Tucumã and stronger copper and gold prices [17] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled $77.1 million in Q3, with adjusted net income attributable to owners of the company at $27.9 million, or $0.27 per share [17] - Liquidity position at quarter end was $111 million, including $66.3 million in cash and cash equivalents [18] - Net debt leverage ratio improved to 1.9 times at the end of Q3, down from 2.1 times in Q2 and 2.5 times at the end of 2022 [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated copper production set a record in Q3, with significant contributions from Tucumã, which saw a nearly 20% increase for the second consecutive quarter [10] - At Caraíba, plant throughput levels reached a quarterly volume record, with a decline in grade as expected due to a strategic shift in ore sourcing [11] - Tucumã's production increased by 19% in Q3, driven by a ramp-up in throughput, while Xavantina's production rose by approximately 17% due to mechanization efforts [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to sell between 10,000 and 15,000 tons of gold concentrate during Q4 2025, with operating costs estimated at approximately $300-$500 per ounce of gold [5] - The average quarterly production of gold at Xavantina was 7,000 ounces in the first half of the year, with a production of nearly 7,000 ounces in October alone [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on deleveraging its balance sheet and expects to accelerate this process through gold concentrate sales [6][18] - A significant emphasis is placed on operational excellence, health and safety, and optimizing production across all operations [9][10] - The company is also advancing long-term growth initiatives at Furnas, with ongoing drilling and technical work to support future development [15][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing transformation and improvements across operations, with expectations for Q4 to be the strongest production quarter of the year [10][12] - The company is addressing inflationary pressures in Brazil through various initiatives, including foreign exchange hedging [22][24] - Management highlighted the importance of mechanization and operational improvements in driving productivity and safety [41][46] Other Important Information - The company has commenced shipping gold concentrate, resulting in its first invoice, and expects to continue this momentum into Q4 [5][19] - A foreign exchange hedge program was in place with a total notional position of $290 million, resulting in a realized gain of $2 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: On Xavantina, regarding the remaining 80% of the gold concentrate that has not been sampled yet, what assumptions can be made? - Management indicated that while excitement exists about the potential volume, it is too early to provide specific estimates for the remaining concentrate [20][21] Question: Have there been any significant labor contractor inflation pressures in Brazil? - Management acknowledged inflationary pressures in Brazil but noted efforts to mitigate these through longer-term contracts and hedging strategies [22][24] Question: What is the timeline for sampling the remaining gold concentrate stockpile? - Management stated that the focus is on selling the current volume before continuing sampling, with updates expected quarterly [33][34] Question: How is the company addressing the tailings filtration circuit at Tucumã? - Management confirmed ongoing improvements and the addition of a mobile filter press to enhance capacity [36][37] Question: What are the expectations for mining rates and grades at Xavantina moving into next year? - Management highlighted significant increases in mining rates and grades due to mechanization, with expectations for continued high performance [41][44]