Workflow
Credit bond
icon
Search documents
【财经分析】债市维持“稳中偏多”基本盘 利率仍有下探空间
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 16:45
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing low yield fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.65%, and analysts expect further declines, potentially reaching 1.4% or lower by the end of 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of April 29, the interbank bond market shows slight fluctuations in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down 2 basis points to 1.62% [2]. - The current market is characterized by a lack of significant new information, leading to a stable yield environment [2]. - Over 60% of investors anticipate a clear easing of monetary policy in the second quarter of this year, with expectations for potential rate cuts [2][3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Most investors believe the 10-year government bond yield could reach a low of 1.5% or lower by the end of 2025, with 46% expecting it to hit 1.5%, and 19% predicting it could go as low as 1.4% [3]. - Analysts suggest that upcoming economic data, such as manufacturing PMI, could serve as catalysts for market movements [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The prevailing strategy among investors is to adopt a "buy on dips" approach, focusing on long-duration bonds while maintaining liquidity [5][6]. - There is a notable shift towards a more optimistic outlook among investors, with an increase in those favoring longer-duration strategies [5]. - Credit bonds are viewed as having better relative value in the current environment, with recommendations to focus on high-grade issuers and specific bond types [6].