Carnival stock shows one clear trend over the long term.Carnival (CCL 1.13%) (CUK 0.55%) has experienced both the worst and the best of times in recent years. The world's biggest cruise operator saw business reach a standstill during the height of the pandemic as the company was forced to temporarily halt sailings -- and this resulted in a net loss and soaring debt.But after Carnival emerged from that rough period, it set its sights on recovery and made moves to accelerate its progress to that goal. Those e ...

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Core Viewpoint - Disney reported a mixed fourth quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $1.11, exceeding estimates, but revenue fell short of expectations. The company has increased its share repurchase target to $7 billion for the next fiscal year, leading to downward pressure on shares [1]. Streaming Business Performance - The streaming segment saw significant growth, with earnings rising to $352 million, a 39% increase, indicating a successful transition from traditional linear TV to streaming [2]. - Disney Plus and Hulu added 12.5 million subscribers, with the Disney Plus app gaining an additional 3.8 million subscribers, surpassing analyst expectations [3]. Advertising and Subscriber Trends - Approximately 37% of new subscribers are from ad-supported tiers, reflecting a broader trend where advertisers are increasingly focusing on streaming services to reach audiences [5]. Revenue Streams and Business Segments - The experiences segment, including cruises, is showing resilience, with an uptick in bookings for Q1 of the next year, although the linear network segment experienced a 16% year-over-year decline [10]. - Disney's ability to leverage its intellectual property (IP) across various business segments, including theatrical releases and video game licenses, positions the company favorably in the market [13]. Global Expansion Opportunities - Disney is considering launching ESPN in Asia, which could tap into global audiences, particularly in the sports sector, representing a potential growth area for the company [14].

Core Viewpoint - Royal Caribbean's stock is expected to decline due to another revenue miss, despite a profit beat and increasing demand for cruises [1] Revenue Performance - The company reported a revenue miss, which overshadowed the positive profit results [1] Profitability - Royal Caribbean achieved a profit beat, indicating strong operational performance [1] Demand Trends - There is an accelerating demand for cruises, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry despite the revenue miss [1]

Stock Picks Overview - Strategists highlight stocks poised for positive returns, focusing on those with strong earnings reports [1] - Two stocks are featured: one in tech (AI play) and one in the cruise line industry [2] Carnival Corporation (CCL) Analysis - Carnival is a Zacks number one ranked stock with an A for VGM, indicating value [3][4] - Stock experienced a dip of over 10% in the past month, potentially creating a buying opportunity [5] - Carnival reported an 83% earnings surprise and has had eight consecutive quarters of record earnings [5][6] - Pre-bookings for the next year are at the same level as last year's record levels, with strong demand seen for 2027 [7] - Carnival offers a variety of cruise lines to meet different price points [8] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates six times for this fiscal year and next year [12] - Earnings are projected to grow 49% this year and 12% next year [13] - The company benefits from lower fuel prices and reduced promotional activity due to strong demand [13][14] - Carnival's valuation includes a forward PE ratio of 13 and a PEG ratio of 06, suggesting both growth and value [14] Micron Technology (MU) Analysis - Micron Technology is a Zacks rank number one strong buy rated stock, benefiting from the AI boom [16] - The stock is up approximately 48% as of the recording and is rebounding after a selloff [17] - BNP Pariba analyst raised the price target by 170% to $270, anticipating a memory super cycle [18] - Fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results showed earnings up 157% year-over-year and revenues up 46% year-over-year [18] - Analysts have been raising estimates for the current quarter and year [20] - The stock is up 125% year-to-date, making it the top-performing chip stock in 2025 [21] - Micron is trading at a forward PE multiple of 1095 times [22]

Group 1: Company Overview - Carnival operates as a leisure travel company, providing cruises to approximately 700 ports globally through multiple well-known cruise line brands [2] Group 2: Investment Thesis - Carnival stock is currently trading nearly 11% lower than its 1-year peak and has a price-to-sales (PS) multiple below the average of the last 3 years, indicating it may be undervalued [1] - The company has demonstrated reasonable fundamentals, including a revenue growth rate of 7.1% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 45.9% over the last three years [8] - Carnival maintains a free cash flow margin of approximately 11.1% and an operating margin of 16.4% LTM, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities [8] - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 14.4, which is considered modest given its encouraging fundamentals [8] Group 3: Market Performance and Risks - Carnival has experienced significant market declines in the past, including a 65% drop during the Dot-Com crash and a nearly 69% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [8] - The stock faced an 84% drop due to the Covid pandemic, highlighting its vulnerability to severe market shocks [10] - Despite robust fundamentals, significant sell-offs are inherent risks, as stocks can decline even in favorable market conditions due to events like earnings announcements and business updates [11]

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation has demonstrated strong financial performance, achieving record revenues and profits, indicating robust demand for cruises despite concerns over high debt levels and economic uncertainty [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Carnival reported third-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of record revenue [2]. - The company achieved an all-time high profit of $1.9 billion during the same period [2]. - Carnival has over $25 billion in long-term debt but has refinanced over $11 billion of it this year, benefiting from lower interest rates [3]. Stock Valuation - The stock is currently trading at levels not seen since 2021, yet it remains significantly below pre-pandemic highs, which were often above $50 [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio stands at 15, dropping to 12 based on forward earnings projections, suggesting the stock is modestly priced relative to profitability [5]. Demand Outlook - Nearly half of Carnival's 2026 bookings are already secured, reflecting strong ongoing demand for cruises [6]. - Cruises are perceived as budget-friendly travel options, which may sustain demand even amid economic challenges [6]. Investment Perspective - Despite the high debt load, Carnival's consistent profitability and record performance suggest a positive trajectory for the company [7]. - The stock is viewed as less risky than in previous years, with attractive pricing potentially supporting continued demand [8]. - The combination of low valuation and improved financial performance makes Carnival a compelling investment opportunity [8].

Core Insights - Carnival's stock (NYSE: CCL) fell 4% on Monday and has decreased by 9.5% over the past 21 trading days despite better-than-expected quarterly results, primarily due to weaker forecasts for net yield, a key metric for revenue from passengers [1] Financial Performance - Carnival is valued at $39 billion with $26 billion in revenue, currently trading at $29.40 [7] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 7.1% over the last 12 months and maintains an operating margin of 16.4% [7] - Carnival's stock has historically returned a median of 9.1% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [7] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - The stock has seen significant declines in the past, including a drop of 79.6% from a peak of $31.31 on June 2, 2021, to $6.38 on October 10, 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 [8] - The stock fully rebounded to its pre-Crisis peak by August 26, 2025, and has since risen to a peak of $32.49 on August 28, 2025, currently trading at $29.40 [8] - Historical performance shows that Carnival's stock has consistently underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during various economic downturns, both in terms of the extent of decline and recovery speed [4] Debt and Liquidity - Carnival displays a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.72 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03, indicating its financial leverage and liquidity position [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cruise industry is experiencing record quarterly net income, revenue, and booking volume, indicating strong performance and growth potential, leading Melius to suggest that the recent stock selloff presents a buying opportunity [1] Summary by Category - **Financial Performance** - Quarterly net income, revenue, and booking volume reached all-time highs, showcasing the industry's robust financial health [1] - **Market Sentiment** - The stock's recent decline is viewed as an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the strong fundamentals of the cruise industry [1]