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Why RH Stock Is Still Risky Even as Profit Soars
The Motley Foolยท 2025-09-13 08:04
Core Viewpoint - RH has shown progress in profitability despite facing macroeconomic challenges and tariff uncertainties, but the company's outlook has become more cautious, leading to a decline in share prices after the earnings report [1][11]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter, RH reported revenue of approximately $899 million, representing an 8.4% year-over-year increase, while net income surged by 79% to around $52 million [4]. - Free cash flow for the quarter was about $81 million, indicating strong cash generation [4]. - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.6%, both up 340 basis points from the previous year, showcasing significant margin expansion alongside revenue growth [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in a global brand strategy, including new flagship locations in Europe, while navigating tariff-related uncertainties and a sluggish U.S. housing market [2][10]. - RH is shifting its sourcing strategy, expecting receipts from China to decrease to about 2% by Q4, down from 16% in Q1, and increasing production in the U.S. and Italy [9]. Guidance and Outlook - RH revised its fiscal 2025 revenue growth forecast to 9% to 11%, down from a previous estimate of 10% to 13%, and adjusted its operating margin expectations to between 13% and 14% [7]. - The company anticipates about $30 million in incremental tariff costs in the second half and expects a delay in the fall interiors sourcebook, pushing an estimated $40 million of revenue from Q3 to Q4 and early fiscal 2026 [8]. Market Conditions - The housing market remains a significant concern, with the CEO expressing disappointment in its performance despite demand growth [10]. - International expansion efforts, such as the opening of RH Paris, are seen as a counterbalance to domestic challenges, with plans for additional locations in London and Milan by 2026 [10]. Valuation Considerations - Despite improved profitability metrics, RH's valuation remains challenging, trading near a mid-50s price-to-earnings multiple and a market capitalization exceeding $4 billion, which may deter new investors given the uncertainties [11].