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Okta Plunges 27% in 3 Months: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-08-18 17:16
Core Insights - Okta (OKTA) shares have declined 27.2% in the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's return of 15.4% and the Zacks Security industry's fall of 8.5% [1][7] - The decline is attributed to slowing federal business, challenging macroeconomic conditions, and stiff competition in the Identity and Access management domain [1][10] Financial Performance - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating 9-10% growth from fiscal 2025 [10] - Non-GAAP earnings are projected between $3.23 and $3.28 per share, suggesting 16.7% growth year-over-year [11] - Second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues are anticipated to be between $710 million and $712 million, reflecting 10% year-over-year growth [12] Market Position - Okta shares are currently trading below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The company's Value Score is D, indicating that Okta shares are overvalued compared to peers like Cisco [9] Product and Innovation - Okta is expanding its AI-driven identity tools and partnerships, which are expected to drive long-term growth [7][13] - The launch of the Cross App Access protocol aims to enhance security for AI agents, reflecting Okta's commitment to protecting customers deploying AI [14] Partnerships and Liquidity - Okta has a rich partner base, including major companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, and Palo Alto Networks, with over 7,000 integrations [16] - The company ended Q1 FY26 with $2.73 billion in cash, indicating strong liquidity, and raised free cash flow margin guidance to roughly 27% [18] Customer Growth - Okta exited Q1 FY26 with approximately 20,000 customers, with a notable increase in customers with over $100,000 in Annual Contract Value [19]
OKTA Trades 25% Below 52-Week High: Right Time to Buy the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-07-24 17:00
Core Insights - Okta shares closed at $95.63, approximately 25% below the 52-week high of $127.57, with a year-to-date appreciation of 21.3%, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and the Zacks Security industry [1][9] - The company has a strong liquidity position with $2.73 billion in cash and investments, and a free cash flow margin guidance raised to roughly 27% for fiscal 2026 [7][9] - Okta's innovative product portfolio and extensive partner base are driving customer growth and revenue, with over 20,000 customers and a significant increase in high-value contracts [15][16] Performance Comparison - Okta has outperformed peers such as CyberArk, Cisco, and Microsoft year to date, with respective share price appreciations of 12.9%, 15.9%, and 20% [2] - In terms of valuation, Okta is trading at a forward Price/Cash Flow of 22.51X, which is higher than the broader sector's 22.03X but lower than CyberArk's 73.58X and Microsoft’s 28.88X [8][10] Product and Market Position - The company is benefiting from strong demand for its new products, including Identity Governance and AI-powered capabilities, which enhance security and user experience [3][9] - Okta's new protocol, Cross App Access, aims to secure AI agents and improve security compliance, reflecting the company's commitment to protecting customers deploying AI [14] Financial Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Okta expects revenues between $2.85 billion and $2.86 billion, indicating a growth of 9-10% from fiscal 2025, with non-GAAP earnings guidance raised to $3.23-$3.28 per share [17][18] - The second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue guidance is between $710 million and $712 million, suggesting a 10% year-over-year growth [19][20] Conclusion - Despite facing macroeconomic challenges and a competitive landscape, Okta's innovative portfolio and expanding customer base position it favorably for growth, supported by a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) and a Growth Score of A [21]