Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robot Supply Chain Industry Overview - The conference focused on the humanoid robot supply chain, involving nine companies including Sanhua, Tuopu, Rongtai, Shuanghuan, Minth, Joyson, Zhaowei, Best Precision, and Shuanglin [1][4][5] Key Takeaways Capacity Planning and Production - Most suppliers are actively planning capacity in China and overseas (primarily Thailand) to support potential mass production of humanoid robots, with current capacity planning ranging from approximately 100,000 to 1 million robot equivalent units per year [4][5] - Companies are optimistic about industry growth, with a global humanoid robot shipment forecast of 1.38 million units by 2035 [4] - Suppliers are broadening their product portfolios from single components to integrated modules, targeting ambitious market share gains [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Sanhua**: Maintains over 50% market share in actuator assemblies, focusing on a single leading global customer for now [9] - **Tuopu**: Plans to establish humanoid-related production capacity in Thailand, Mexico, and the U.S., with an annual capacity of 1 million units in Thailand, contingent on customer demand [9] - **Rongtai**: Emphasizes precision machining capabilities and aims to secure a position as a supplier for North American customers, with plans to increase capacity by 2025 [10] - **Minth**: Targets RMB 5 billion in humanoid-related revenue by 2030, with a completed production line for head and face assemblies expected to start commercial production in Q1 2026 [13] - **Joyson**: Focuses on head assembly and anticipates production ramp-up after Q2 next year, pending customer orders [15] - **Zhaowei**: Offers micro hardware components for humanoid robots and expects RMB 100 million revenue from dexterous hand-related business in 2026 [16] - **Best Precision**: Currently has limited sales contribution from humanoid applications, mainly from sampling demand [18] - **Shuanglin**: Plans to expand capacity for planetary roller screws, with a current capacity of 12,000 units for initial samples [20] Market Dynamics - Companies are showcasing technical capabilities and scalable production readiness as key competitive edges [4] - The ecosystem is evolving with companies eager to expand into robotics components to find new growth engines [4] - The competitive landscape includes various technologies for reduction gears, with companies exploring innovative solutions to enhance performance [15] Future Outlook - Key checkpoints include the Tesla Optimus Gen 3 launch by February/March 2026 and public disclosure of order/shipment targets by the end of 2025 [5] - The overall sentiment remains constructive on the long-term humanoid robot technology trend, with a need to monitor product performance and application developments [5] Additional Important Points - The conference highlighted the importance of collaboration among companies and the need for flexibility in production planning based on customer demand [9][10] - Companies are focusing on developing low-cost production equipment to reduce reliance on overseas equipment [18] - The anticipated growth in the humanoid robot market is driving companies to innovate and adapt their strategies to secure market share [4][5]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Electric Motor Suppliers Industry Overview - The report focuses on the electric motor supply industry in China, specifically covering **Johnson Electric** and **Wolong Electric** as key players in the sector [2][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Company Ratings and Price Targets - **Johnson Electric** is rated **Overweight (OW)** with a price target of **HK$67**, indicating an **82% potential upside** from current levels [3][31]. - **Wolong Electric** is rated **Neutral** with a price target of **Rmb43**, suggesting a **10% potential downside** [3][31]. Growth Drivers 1. **AI Data Centers**: - Johnson and Wolong are expanding into liquid cooling components, with a total addressable market (TAM) projected at **Rmb4 billion** for EC motors, **Rmb6 billion** for direct-to-chip cooling pumps, and **Rmb12 billion** for cold plates by 2026 [24][34]. - The shift from air to liquid cooling is driven by the increasing power density of AI servers, creating significant opportunities for both companies [34][35]. 2. **Humanoid Robotics**: - The global TAM for humanoid robotics is estimated at **5 billion units**. Johnson focuses on integrated actuators with higher content per humanoid, while Wolong has a broader reach with lighter-duty solutions [26][43][45]. - The dollar content per robot is approximately **Rmb106k** for Johnson and **Rmb76k** for Wolong, indicating substantial potential earnings upside [26][44]. 3. **eVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing)**: - The domestic eVTOL market in China is expected to reach **5,000 units/year by 2035**. Wolong is more exposed in this area, partnering with Geely's AeroFugia [27][28]. Valuation Insights - Johnson is seen as undervalued, trading at **16x CY26E P/E** compared to Wolong's **52x CY26E P/E**, despite similar earnings growth projections [5][31]. - The report suggests that Johnson's growth potential in AI cooling and robotics remains underappreciated, while Wolong's valuation reflects its current growth trajectory [17][31]. Near-term Catalysts - For **Johnson Electric**: - Tesla Optimus pilot hand validation (1H26) - AI cooling architecture developments - Participation in humanoid forums [5]. - For **Wolong Electric**: - Humanoid targets from Zhiyuan/Lenovo (end-25) - AeroFugia eVTOL certification (1H26) - HKEX IPO filing (1Q26) [5]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the structural opportunity driven by secular demand in the electric motor supply chain, with both companies emerging as critical partners in high-growth verticals [8][22]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with both Johnson and Wolong positioned to capture significant market share as demand for high-performance motor solutions increases [22][39]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a positive outlook for the electric motor supply industry in China, with Johnson Electric positioned for substantial upside due to its undervaluation and growth potential in emerging sectors like AI cooling and humanoid robotics, while Wolong Electric's valuation appears to already reflect its growth prospects.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6] Core Insights - The humanoid robot market is experiencing strong demand, with companies like UBTECH, Agibot, and Unitree announcing significant orders and contracts [2][3][8] - There is an expectation for more adoption announcements in the second half of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and a push from both companies and government for humanoid adoption [8] Summary by Relevant Sections - **UBTECH's Tiangong Walker**: Received orders for approximately 100 units and expects to deliver over 300 units in 2025, with over 60% of orders for premium versions [2] - **Agibot and Unitree Contract**: Awarded a Rmb124 million humanoid robot contract from China Mobile, with Agibot receiving Rmb78 million for full-size robots and Unitree Rmb46 million for smaller robots and accessories [3] - **Market Trends**: The focus is shifting from new model announcements to tracking adoption progress, indicating a maturation of the market and a potential for a virtuous cycle in humanoid technology [8]